CK MLB Daily Thread Leans for Wednseday 4/22/09

Dexter · 04-21-09, 09:57 PM

dan haren is 0-3 on the year with an era/whip of 1.89/.78.
the d'backs have scored 1 run in all 3 of his starts but have showed me enough in these first 2 home games to think they'll score 6+ vs delarosa
the team makes it a point to get one of their 2 aces his first win.

-dbacks -1.5/even (2x)

the jays/rangers couldnt even stay under with halladay on the mound. a matchup of harrison (8.43/2.43) last 3 starts and purcey (6.45/1.70) should equate to lots of scoring with these 2 solid offenses in ideal conditions.

-over jays 10.5 (2x)

Dexter · 04-21-09, 10:57 PM

i actually like the mets now vs pinero off a loss.

they blew a 4 run lead for me tonight, but should bounce back tomorrow. carjacked.

Chi_archie · 04-21-09, 11:47 PM

I'd love to take Fl as a dog with Nolasco trying to avoid the sweep by my MIGHTY buccos..... but I can't bet against Maholm at this point, he is the best kept secret in baseball and a great future yankee or red sox starter i'm sure..... I still might put a lil somthing on the fish

Chi_archie · 04-22-09, 12:07 AM

Originally posted by Chi_archie

I'd love to take Fl as a dog with Nolasco trying to avoid the sweep by my MIGHTY buccos..... but I can't bet against Maholm at this point, he is the best kept secret in baseball and a great future yankee or red sox starter i'm sure..... I still might put a lil somthing on the fish

on second thought Fl might be the play.... Marlins current hitters have 6 career hr's off Maholm in only 63 at bats...

pirates just .216 lifetime vs Nolasco

danrman · 04-22-09, 12:40 AM

dex i like your mets play alot but im not sure ariz deserves to be that high a fav. (even though i know you will run line it) to a team where they couldnt hold a 4 run lead against last night.. colo had lost like 5 games in a row and now i could see them winning a couple in a row after coming back and getting the monkey off there back...

danrman · 04-22-09, 12:42 AM

you got it right ck.. now is the time to play kc

Chi_archie · 04-22-09, 12:46 AM

I like the pirates/marlins under alot too.... and if the Maholm does keep up his stellar performance of 09, I think the under will win and at least cancel the buccos loss out...

Buccos lineup is nowhere near as potent with Doumit out

might do 2 units under
1 unit marlins

wangichu · 04-22-09, 04:35 AM

with all the 9th inning shennanegins and the stats you Chi_archie just dropped i think i'm sold on the marlins, nolasco like he finished last year is a better pitcher than malholm, granted, nolasco has been struggling and malholm hasn't, but i'll take the potential and the superior lineup to avoid the sweep

FLA ML

oswalt is still too expensive with his team struggling as much as he is this year and wolf is one of the more undervalued pitchers to play on and he has a division leading lineup and bullpen to support his work.

LAD ML

looking at baltimore chicago. line moved big for the O's and guthrie is their ace.

BAL ML or Under ... still figuring.

looking at the brew crew too.

TodaysAction · 04-22-09, 06:38 AM

Originally posted by cocknocker

I have a few plays that I like for today. I will be back around to update the reasons why later on, but here goes:

Boston/Minnesota over 9.5 Game 2
N.Y. Mets-110 HEAVY (Dexter special)
KC+165
Texas+133 or more

Keep banging `em.

What's up with the colored fonts for the teams?

ploben · 04-22-09, 06:45 AM

Originally posted by TodaysAction

Keep banging `em.

What's up with the colored fonts for the teams?

Team colors

peterpan19 · 04-22-09, 06:56 AM

ok guys:

taking a shot at it today
OAK +230 (CC has not so great carrer numbers agains the A's...I give it a shot...btw even on the RL +1.5 you get plus odds today)

ARZ -1 -120
As a Dbacks fan it was very tough to watch his first starts this year...he not only looked like an ace...he is an ace...and he should deserve wins like an ace...

CWS -105
ace vs ace here today...but I take the one with the better liftime numbers against the other team...

LAA -111
Saunders will keep them in the game and I think Verlander still sucks....

thats it for today

GL guys

solobass · 04-22-09, 08:54 AM

alright, you will not hear me extol the virtues of the tigers bullpen any time soon. here is some data for you all to chew on.

1st innings yesterday were profitable (more than making up for my tigers loss) at 9 wins 5 losses. so far this year any day that had a net 3 game or better profit followed with a losing day, so i am off of them today. year to date the record is 97-101 (remember why April is not played in its entirety!) and has gone from being 3 wins above .500 and 9 wins below .500. anyone knowing the best sportsbook in vegas with the most props and best odds let me know, it looks like i am heading there again next week. this weekeknd heading to the casinos in detroit to knock the rust off of my blackjack game.

TMajic · 04-22-09, 09:37 AM

I was at the MGM two weeks ago and I didn't see any of the books that had "first inning runs scored" props.

kmarinouofm · 04-22-09, 10:39 AM

yeah i am not sure if any books in vegas take that bet across the board... maybe on the marque games..

I think the marlins avoid the sweep today.. either way i think their bats are going to wake up.. the fish always seem to step up when it comes to good pitching...

I think the fish win... but to play it safe i am going on the team total of over 3.5 at -120...

kmarinouofm · 04-22-09, 10:43 AM

also does anyone know why my avatar isn't working??

ploben · 04-22-09, 10:49 AM

Originally posted by kmarinouofm

also does anyone know why my avatar isn't working??

Because you touch yourself at night?

kmarinouofm · 04-22-09, 10:51 AM

true i do touch myself at night.... sometimes during the day too for some afternoon delight .... but usually i am thinking about ploben..

kmarinouofm · 04-22-09, 10:55 AM

but seriously

Chi_archie · 04-22-09, 10:57 AM

marlins and under getting pounded..... under at 7.5 at many books now.... i'm seeing wind blowing out to left at 14 mph's????

kmarinouofm · 04-22-09, 11:02 AM

yeah i saw it drop at my book too.. that is why i am on the marlins team total 3.5..

these bats can't stay quiet 3 games in a row...

i have a feeling the fish might get swept..but they are gonna play their asses off and at least get 4 runs..

kmarinouofm · 04-22-09, 11:05 AM

marlins are the money line fav at -115 now. but the pirates are the one getting the run line favorite at -1.5 +200 and the fish at +1.5 -240....

weird

jgbgsox · 04-22-09, 11:05 AM

my afternoon games im going with the under 8 on pitt/fla,under 9 on yank/oak and bos-151

kmarinouofm · 04-22-09, 11:09 AM

also some weird RLM today

70% of the public on the yankees and the line is getting cheaper?
same thing with the braves today...

kmarinouofm · 04-22-09, 11:10 AM

Chi_archie.. where do you check for public bets? I just used thespread.com...

rb4033 · 04-22-09, 11:17 AM

LOCKED:
Boston game 1
Pitt so swepp!

tbill11 · 04-22-09, 11:18 AM

Alright guys, need a comeback card today...been 0-8 on baseball over the past 2 days.

Here's what I've got, and I'd love some input:

Padres -130 (Chris Young's a great pitcher and Barry Zito is well on his way to starting 0-9 again. I think this is a winner)
Royals +170 (I trust CK here)
White Sox -115 (They lost for me yesterday, think Danks will come back and win it today)

Those are the three "locks" for now (although not locked in). Do I dare add the A's at +225 also? What do you all think?

Killer Chihuahua · 04-22-09, 11:37 AM

Originally posted by tbill11

Alright guys, need a comeback card today...been 0-8 on baseball over the past 2 days.

Here's what I've got, and I'd love some input:

Padres -130 (Chris Young's a great pitcher and Barry Zito is well on his way to starting 0-9 again. I think this is a winner)
Royals +170 (I trust CK here)
White Sox -115 (They lost for me yesterday, think Danks will come back and win it today)

Those are the three "locks" for now (although not locked in). Do I dare add the A's at +225 also? What do you all think?

DUDE,

you said the "L" word.....I was on the Royals today but NOW Im going to cancel it! GL

ragiche · 04-22-09, 11:52 AM

Booked plays.

Fla -110 (L)

Nym -110 (L)

Oak +1.5 (L) Damn,Melky's 2R HR.

Tex/Tor O 9.5 (W)

Sdg -120 (L)

Ari -175 (W)

Oak/Nyy O 9.0 (W)

NBA:

Mia +5.5 (CK pc play) (W)

Noh +6.0 (CK)

Phi/Orl O 193 (L)

NHL:

NY rangers +115 (Showtime) (W)

BOL guys.

Chi_archie · 04-22-09, 12:13 PM

Ryan Howard has 4 career Hr's in 5 official ab's vs Looper...... also 2 walks

ploben · 04-22-09, 12:47 PM

Originally posted by kmarinouofm

true i do touch myself at night.... sometimes during the day too for some afternoon delight .... but usually i am thinking about ploben..

repski · 04-22-09, 12:54 PM

avatars gone??

nope mines good

laxdjock · 04-22-09, 01:29 PM

I'm going to tail CK on the KC bet, up to +178 at 5Dimes, 2 units.

I'm riding Maine and the NYM...hopefully to the bank, in at -112, 2 units.

ploben · 04-22-09, 02:09 PM

BOS took care of the Over all by themself.

vassman86 · 04-22-09, 02:21 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

the jays/rangers couldnt even stay under with halladay on the mound. a matchup of harrison (8.43/2.43) last 3 starts and purcey (6.45/1.70) should equate to lots of scoring with these 2 solid offenses in ideal conditions.

-over jays (2x)

I like the first half over 5.5 here. In his last outing, Purcey really struggled with his control early in the game (3.2IP, 4H, 4ER, 4BB on 87 pitches), and I'm expecting that trend to continue tonight. Much of the same can be said for Harrison who pitched 5.0 innings giving up 8H, 6ER, 4BB, 2HR, on 98 pitches.

With these two pitchers on the mound to start the game, the first half over feels like a safer bet.