CK's Daily Baseball Thread Friday 4/17/09

[SmackdownV]

interesting!

Oops.

[SmackdownV]

Lemon...your gonna get a cubbies win by 2...

The Gods have spoken.

[Kav]

YES OMFG!!! soriano just jacked one to take the lead at the bottom of the 8th for the cubs!

[DFoster]

I need the same thing...I took the Cub RL and the over, which obviously hit.

[kmarinouofm]

alright cards hit the team total over 4.. starting my day off with a nice 2-0

[SmackdownV]

Now we gotta hope for a Birds tie in the top o the 9th

[Kav]

Marmol better close this out damnit!

[Kav]

wow what is this bum doing, walking a lead off batter only for pujols to come up... GREAT IDEA!

[Kav]

Oh great now he hits pujols!

[sportsguy04]

Cards tie it up here please.

CUBS RL.

[Karayilan9]

CUAIrish
-118 was where it was at last night, i believe theres injuries on chipper and escobar which brought the line down. Believe he's still playing it.. i am

Thanks bro, hope we all have the luck of the Irish 2nite

[SmackdownV]

Damn Lemon.

Only play what CK tells you from now on.

[Cassidy]

But CK, regarding money management, do you play your both HEAVYs for the juice you use to? 3 dimes each? i think this is the amount you usually put in HEAVYs at least in the past.

For example I use to put 250 on the "standards" and 1500 on "BIGS", so HEAVYs are for 3K right? I mean, this heavys tonight are for you like 10-12 standards, so 3K each right?

[TheLemonDropKid]

AND THERE YOU HAVE IT BOYS AND GIRLS!!

Lemon getting bent over the barrel!!

My original lean was a parlay with the Yanks and the Cubbies ML for a nice solid amount. But then all the talk about the money lines being too large and Run Lines being a better option had me thinking I would be better off going with Run Lines for each individually and a smaller parlay on the ML..........so I went with that and said "you know.....that's gonna be some funny shit if both teams I pick win, but only by 1 run each".

AND WHAMMO!!!!!

[SmackdownV]

Lemon.

My plays today so far:
NYY over 4.5 first 5
Cubs/Birds over 5 first 5
Cubs/Birds over 9.5 Game.

We gonna get you back on track.....I FREAKING HATE 1.5 Lines in baseball. I would (personally) just take ML's or OVER/unders.....

I HATE 1.5 Run Lines.....To me they seem too unpredictable....unless you have a good pitching matchup.

We shall get you postive my friend.....

[wangichu]

a little nervous with all the value i'm seeing tonight...

see earlier post for reasoning, but that line is indicative of the fish dropping the first in the series to the nats.

WAS ML

i know the sox should ultimately be the better team, but the O's have started out hot, and guthrie has been as consistent an ace as they have had over the last 2 years. Meanwhile, the sox have struggled early, and while penny looked good in his first outting, the O's behind guthrie just packs too much value at the big plus money.

BAL ML

Similar situation to the O's vs. the sox... Young and the pads are hot, phils are not, and hamels specifically looks like he's still trying to find his swagger... further more, his value skyrocketted at the end of last year which means that it much more appropriate to fade him at good plus money than play him with any size of juice.

SD ML

RLM for sanchez and the giants, and while haren and the d-backs are again a better ace/team, sanchez has been on the cusp of putting together a solid start, looking brilliant early before hitting the big inning, and while he's prone to do the same here, I just don't think that a 3-6 team should be favored at -140 over anyone, even with haren. Giants are hungry for a win after back to back sweeps on the road, and now they have some home cooking behind them.

SF ML

Anaheim has not played like a contender early and probably won't until they get santana and lackey back, but tonight they have to face blackburn who has been solid early this year and going back to last year has been a great value for backing the twins. The public is a little too excited about getting the halos at plus money. I agree with CK here..

MIN ML

[SmackdownV]

Braves-118 HEAVY
Milwaukee/NY Mets over 9.5
Detroit/Seattle over 7.5
Nats+105 The line went down so I am on it now

CK the Prophet has spoken.

Make the bets. NOW!!!!

And last but not least, I will be making a play for the Twinkies who were embarrassed at home yesterday against another dome team the Blue Jays. But the Angels aren't exactly an indoor team and are not used to the hops and so forth that happen indoors on turf. In other words the Angels are out of thir realm. I will take the small chalk and the Twinkies to rally up the troops and restore the fans confidence in them. I am hitting this one HEAVY to match my HEAVY wager with the Braves just in case. I really love the matchup in this game. Blackburn is a stud when he is on. I think he will be on as he is a good number 2 starter.

Twins-120 HEAVY
Twins-1.5 +170

[alukk]

i really like all ur plays ck. BOL tonoght dude

[SmackdownV]

Personally here is what I am going to do.

I am taking Mets over 9.5
Rockies over 4.5 first 5
Rockies over 9.5 Game

Seattle over 7.5

All 1/2 unit bets......win 2 break even...win 3 good to go...........That way I don't get bent over the barrel......

Also looking at San Fran ML......+137 1/2 unit.

[Cassidy]

96% fo the public on BRAVES and the line rising for PIRATES!! braves +115 on some books, arent this BIG RLM??

(Edit: 96% on Spread, sorry) but still big public vigorish on braves anyway, and dont understand the ML dropping for braves.

[wangichu]

adding the jays -1.5.... i know it's a lot of plays tonight, but as hot as the jays are, especially offensively they should be in good shape here against a rookie arm venturing outside the friendly confines of his home stadium... conversely, purcey is a talented young arm who has been VERY solid at home (while struggling on the road to allow his value to sit so cheaply). I think the kid gems up on the A's while the A's struggle to cool the red hot blue jay bats. Great value on toronto by 2 (+140!)

TOR -1.5

[CUAIrish]

I'm loaded up... rode CK last 2 nights for success so I gotta stick with him. I also added SD +152 Young is off to a good start after a rough spring and looks to keep the ball rolling tonight. Hamels, as wangichu stated, has yet to find himself this season and until he does I'll take the + money.

Braves +112 - 2 units
Milwaukee/NY Mets over 9.5 -120 - 1 unit
Detroit/Seattle over 7.5 -105 - 1 unit
Nats+113 - 1 unit
Twins -114 - 2 units
Twins -1.5 +170 - 1 unit
SD +152 - 1 unit

Hopped on for Nats series too, lets get another one CK

[Vonnegut]

cocknocker I made my plays before I read your thread and I am glad we are thinking alike tonight. It tells me I am on the right track.

Brewers/Mets over and Twins RL.

Good luck to us here and good luck on your other plays.

[sweetjones55]

Marlins win tonight. They own the Nationals and they already tee'd off on the Nats starting pitcher tonight, Lannan, once. Nolasco hasn't been pitching that well his first two games but he showed last year he can be a very capable starter. Lannan has not shown any promising signs yet. Hottest team in the league vs most probably the worst team in the league. I think you guys are overthinking it.

[laxdjock]

yeah, plus the nationals get scrubby pitchers to pitch over their head with a park that is highly condusive of good pitching, where as the mets always over rate guys and wind up getting far less than they think they will out of guys they pick up off the scrap heap. I'll be holding off on redding until i see something once he gets back... still don't think the mets have the pitching to see the marlins OR the braves in this division

The Marlins don't have a BP and are light on hitting. I still think the Mets can pull through, though they need Ollie and Maine to step up. I think Pelf and Santana should be solid. TBD I guess.

[laxdjock]

AND THERE YOU HAVE IT BOYS AND GIRLS!!

Lemon getting bent over the barrel!!

My original lean was a parlay with the Yanks and the Cubbies ML for a nice solid amount. But then all the talk about the money lines being too large and Run Lines being a better option had me thinking I would be better off going with Run Lines for each individually and a smaller parlay on the ML..........so I went with that and said "you know.....that's gonna be some funny shit if both teams I pick win, but only by 1 run each".

AND WHAMMO!!!!!

It definitely can be tough. -1.5 is always a bit scary. I prefer ML typically (especially with dogs), but if I feel solid about a game I'll roll with the -1.5. I've taken -2.5 on occasion, but that tends to be a 1 unit flyer.

[chipper13101]

LOL.........It's like I need you to be around 24-7 to hold my frickin hand like a little kid..........please don't leave the forum for more than 2 minutes at a time......as I am liable to walk out onto the interstate and play in the traffic at any given moment.

I'm such a frickin moron....

I should know with my kind of luck THERE IS NO DEVIATING from the discipline of my mentors.

dude, no offense intended, but someone needs to give you a serious b*tch slappin'. Do the thread a favor and quit with all the whining. You're not the only one that loses bets. enuf said.

[Dexter]

ck/wang/shoe/dan - whoever... when looking at public bet % on thespread.com, does that factor in plays on the ml and rl for a team?

[Dexter]

the marlins get to see lannan (a below avg pitcher) again on fri. they torched him a few weeks ago, and i'll side with the marlins ace nolasco at value. florida is winning the world series this year - they do so in 6 year increments. (1997, 2003, 2009)

-marlins -130

cueto last year made 2 starts in hou and got torched for 10er in 8ip. the reds lost both games. roy oswalt has a career 22-1 record (astros are 12-2 in those home games) vs the reds, with an era/whip of 2.55/1.09.

-astros -150 (big - 3x)



the whitesox barely hung on to get the win tonight after a late rally off jenks - i expect that to carry over, and for the rays to come out with fire vs colon. longoria will be back, and shields is a solid #2 who beat the whitesox in both home starts last year. series gets evened up on friday.


-rays -1.5/even (big - 2x)

[Jimbo42]

Adding:

Booked:

San Diego +145

[danrman]

im just now getting around to reading the thread dex and i do look at the public % and its effect on all bets

[shoebox]

ck/wang/shoe/dan - whoever... when looking at public bet % on thespread.com, does that factor in plays on the ml and rl for a team?

just the ML......thanks for not getting any hits with RISP NYY whores........!!!!!!!!!

[Jimbo42]

ck/wang/shoe/dan - whoever... when looking at public bet % on thespread.com, does that factor in plays on the ml and rl for a team?

That pie chart is money line only.... not run line... it comes from sportsinsights...

[danrman]

everybody i have a special play on the rockets to win the series over portland.. houston may lose the 1st game in portland but they will win this series.. im on sd also jimbo

[danrman]

im sorry i misunderstood your question dex... its like they said only ml