CK's Daily Baseball Thread Friday 4/17/09

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  • cocknocker
    Restricted User
    • 11-06-08
    • 8001

    #1
    CK's Daily Baseball Thread Friday 4/17/09
    Ah yes the Braves got their hats handed to them in a big way by the Marlins who exposed them in every conceivable way. Now comes the ugly side of wagering. The Pirates are surprising a lot of bettors with their saavy this year. They are banging out hits to be sure, and had 10 yesterday against the Astros. Here to quell that fire is the Atlanta starter Jurrjens ho is 2-0 with a 2.45 era. Maholm is great too, but from a position of need, the Braves had to escape thier hometown and maybe the road will make those bats wake up. I expect that Bobby Cox laid into them after the wipe out an they will play with a sense of urgency in this ballgame.

    Braves-118 HEAVY

    Livan Hernandez has had a bad history against the Brew-Crew. He is always around the late and has no strikeout velocity for when he gets into those 3-2 counts which he is known for since he has become a nibbler in his late part of his career. He has not given up anything less than 4 runs in his last 3 contests against the Brewers, and is only 1-4 lifetime against this team. The Brewers will not be forgivig of those 3-2 counts and situations as they need wins BAD. Bush can hold his own against the Mets lineup with ease. David Bush always allows a lot of runs when he faces the Mets with games that had final tallies of 11 and 15 runs. At first, I was torn between the side and the total. One thing that I do know is that this is definitely NOT pitcher's duel. The last team at bat may win this one.

    Milwaukee/NY Mets over 9.5


    Pitchers' duel in the house that Griffey built. Felix can be touched. Verlander always gets touched and i doubt very seriously that he will quiet those outstanding Seattle bats. At the same time those Detroit bats are f*ckin' hot too, as they smashed the ball all over the place and made a joke out of White Sox pitching in their home stand. They strike out on the road to California filled with renewed hope and possibilities. I say that this game goes over by the 6th inning.

    Detroit/Seattle over 7.5


    I almost forgot. If the Nats have ANY reverse movement on their line against the Marlins, I am taking them as well. Right now the line is Florida-132. If the line for the Marlins is smaller by ANY degree, I will have to do it to them. They are primed and ready for a big letdown after sweeping the Braves on the road.

    Nats+105 The line went down so I am on it now



    And last but not least, I will be making a play for the Twinkies who were embarrassed at home yesterday against another dome team the Blue Jays. But the Angels aren't exactly an indoor team and are not used to the hops and so forth that happen indoors on turf. In other words the Angels are out of thir realm. I will take the small chalk and the Twinkies to rally up the troops and restore the fans confidence in them. I am hitting this one HEAVY to match my HEAVY wager with the Braves just in case. I really love the matchup in this game. Blackburn is a stud when he is on. I think he will be on as he is a good number 2 starter.

    Twins-120 HEAVY
    Twins-1.5 +170


    Late night Crumbs snack: Colorado+130
  • Kav
    SBR MVP
    • 02-25-09
    • 3281

    #2
    with you on everything!

    what about marlins RL tomorrow?
    Comment
    • smoovethug
      SBR Hustler
      • 09-08-07
      • 62

      #3
      First off CK great job. I'm pretty much a n00b here but have been following your picks and you're usually dead on, especially with your heavy plays. Does it concern you that the Braves will be without Chipper and Yunel Escobar due to injuries?
      Comment
      • whatisit
        SBR Sharp
        • 01-25-09
        • 319

        #4
        Only 1 play as of right now

        Stros/Rays Parlay

        GL fellas.
        Comment
        • sportsguy04
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 10-21-08
          • 11885

          #5
          Tallk about a pitching Dual tommorrow:

          Lohse 2-0 1.13ERA vs. Zambrano 1-0 3.00ERA

          St. Louis +165
          Cubs -185
          Comment
          • 2daBank
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 01-26-09
            • 88966

            #6
            lohse not pitching some guy they just called up is pitching for cards
            Comment
            • 2daBank
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 01-26-09
              • 88966

              #7
              ck i see both zambrono and hamels well over -150 2marro arnt both those pitchers on the not worth over -150 list?
              Comment
              • kmarinouofm
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 01-26-09
                • 8437

                #8
                CK all over the Braves and the Detroit Seattle over...

                I will def be making a play on Detroit over 4 tomorrow fellas... if i get lucky maybe i get it at 3.5 and step up the play a bit
                Comment
                • sportsguy04
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 10-21-08
                  • 11885

                  #9
                  I like:

                  Boston RL +140
                  Marlins RL +120
                  Phillies RL +115
                  Mets RL +145--- I think this game could be a blow out.
                  Small Play on Reds ML +140, but Cueto on mound and he can give up some runs. May wait till Saturday to play Harang. But the Over 8.5 here could be a play.

                  Oswalt and Cueto on mound could be some runs to be given.
                  Comment
                  • wangichu
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 11-07-08
                    • 946

                    #10
                    leanin' on....

                    seein' what you're seein' on the nats... nolasco has been much worse than the ace i expected him to be and the marlins should really be favored by a lot more, especially coming off a sweep of the other team to start out on 5-1 in their division. Thinking that scott olsen may gem up his former team for getting rid of him.

                    WAS ML

                    liking the money i can get on chris young right now who has been on fire and is used to pitching in ballparks that are launching pads having started his career with a successful season in texas. My take the runline if i can get it for a good price, but with the play of the padres and the uncertainty of myers or hamels thus far, there's good value in that line any way you spin it

                    SD ML (+1.5)

                    Making up for lost money on tampa tonight, by taking shields on the runlines to get them straight... they've lost 3 consecutive and with longoria coming back, they should have enough pop to give shields plenty of room to work with.

                    TB -1.5
                    Comment
                    • sportsguy04
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 10-21-08
                      • 11885

                      #11
                      Yeah so no Lohse tommorrow.

                      Walters vs. Zambrano. Give me Cubs RL.
                      Comment
                      • kmarinouofm
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 01-26-09
                        • 8437

                        #12
                        also the marlins team over will probably be 4 or 4.5 .. either way i will be on it...
                        Comment
                        • cocknocker
                          Restricted User
                          • 11-06-08
                          • 8001

                          #13
                          Originally posted by 2daBank
                          ck i see both zambrono and hamels well over -150 2marro arnt both those pitchers on the not worth over -150 list?

                          Hamels looks like the more likely victim. The Cubs have a good hitting pitcher facing a farm hand that has been called up, and they need a home win. A Cubs play on the runline would be in order for those wishing to play that game. I smell a blowout despite Zambrano's struggles with the big chalk. The Cardinals are basically reshuffling their pitchers due to Carpenters' latest injury. I have a strong feeling that the Cubs 1st half would be a good play as I don't think that they have any sympathy for the Red Birds, their arch rivals. Matter of fact, if the Cubs win this game handily, they will win the next game also and take the series.



                          Now Hamels is in a bad spot because Young is a good pitcher and obviously the Fathers are hitting the ball well right now. I don't think that Hamels is all the wy back from his off season injury, and he will hae problems for a while. The Phillies are definitely having the blues that usually accompany a team after they have won the World Series winner the following year. Every team that plays them is using them as the measuring stick. I say fade Hamels until he gets back into form. Perhaps a play on the Padres team total may do the trick.
                          Comment
                          • kmarinouofm
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 01-26-09
                            • 8437

                            #14
                            [QUOTE=wangichu;1753674]leanin'

                            seein' what you're seein' on the nats... nolasco has been much worse than the ace i expected him to be and the marlins should really be favored by a lot more, especially coming off a sweep of the other team to start out on 5-1 in their division. Thinking that scott olsen may gem up his former team for getting rid of him.



                            SCOTT OLSEN IS A PUNK AND I WILL TAKE THE FISH AGAINST HIM EVERYDAY OF THE WEEK ESPECIALLY WITH THE NATS LINEUP!!
                            Comment
                            • 2daBank
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 01-26-09
                              • 88966

                              #15
                              good lookin out feel same way plus i big cards fan and seems like zambrono has pitched lot of good gms against them. so fade hamels it is
                              Comment
                              • cocknocker
                                Restricted User
                                • 11-06-08
                                • 8001

                                #16
                                I see that Lannan is pitching for the Nats tomorrow. Am I missing something?

                                Anyway,on another subject... when Redding makes it back from injury, he will be the Mets best pitcher by far. All that he needed is some run production behind him and presto! 15 game winner. Just add water.
                                Comment
                                • kmarinouofm
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 01-26-09
                                  • 8437

                                  #17
                                  man i am kinda second guessing the braves pick for tomorrow right now.. pitt is coming off 2 straight losses after opening up 7 to 0 against Houston...

                                  Braves have chipper out as well as Escobar... Braves have to hit the road tonight while the Pirates are resting at home..

                                  So let me show you some numbers i Do like..Jurrjens is 4.35 ERA in two starts against the Pirates last season. Pirates won 5 out of 7 last year against the braves.. i think that Pitt improved as a team over the course of the year while Atlanta is the same if not worse...

                                  Pittsburgh has opened all three series it's played with a win this year.... Maholm (1-0, 1.32),The left-hander is 0-1 with a 2.77 ERA in two starts against the Braves. This is his first time facing them since 2007.. Meaning he played a much better Braves team.. and had very good outings against them...

                                  Tomorrow the pirates team total will be 3.5 runs.. I am telling you right now to jump all over it...
                                  Comment
                                  • kmarinouofm
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 01-26-09
                                    • 8437

                                    #18
                                    Yeah i know Lannan is pitching tomorrow Wang is pointing out that he see's 2 Nats wins vs the Marlins.. tomorrow and when the fish face Olsen... I am simple stating that i will take any local Miami High School baseball team against Olsen and the Nats...
                                    Comment
                                    • bsebal7
                                      SBR Hustler
                                      • 04-03-09
                                      • 71

                                      #19
                                      CK

                                      Love the write-ups.....New to this forum and loved your prop bet with a run scoring in the 1st inning as well.

                                      Just wanted to ask you if there was a way to get your posts e-mailed on this forum...or if that is even an option.
                                      Comment
                                      • kmarinouofm
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 01-26-09
                                        • 8437

                                        #20
                                        early leans for friday so far are ( i will probably toss like 2 or 3 of these away in the morning, like maybe the marlins and cards... but i just have to have some type of action the fish...)

                                        These lines are projected and are team totals
                                        cards over 4.5
                                        Marlins over 4.5
                                        Pitt over 3.5 big!!!
                                        San diego over 3.5 big!!
                                        brewers over 4
                                        toronto over 4.5
                                        tigers over 3.5 big!!!
                                        Comment
                                        • 2daBank
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 01-26-09
                                          • 88966

                                          #21
                                          you would think yanks would rebound 2marro but joba -200+ think i take my chances riding with the tribe again also liking sd ck got me hooked on crumbs! kmarinouofm the brew crew over 4 looks fkin great!
                                          Comment
                                          • alukk
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 01-29-09
                                            • 1544

                                            #22
                                            Braves -120
                                            Seattle -125
                                            Gl guys
                                            Comment
                                            • thegenix
                                              SBR Sharp
                                              • 11-14-08
                                              • 339

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by 2daBank
                                              you would think yanks would rebound 2marro but joba -200+ think i take my chances riding with the tribe again also liking sd ck got me hooked on crumbs! kmarinouofm the brew crew over 4 looks fkin great!
                                              what exactly does "crumbs" mean? (sorry n00b)
                                              Comment
                                              • cocknocker
                                                Restricted User
                                                • 11-06-08
                                                • 8001

                                                #24
                                                thegenix,

                                                Crumbs are the +money usually assigned on underdog wagers. The best kind.
                                                Comment
                                                • thegenix
                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                  • 11-14-08
                                                  • 339

                                                  #25
                                                  Ahhh thanks for clearing that up.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • cocknocker
                                                    Restricted User
                                                    • 11-06-08
                                                    • 8001

                                                    #26
                                                    kmarinouofm,

                                                    The Braves will be playing wth more desperation than the Pirates. Hitting the road was a blessing in disguise.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • kmarinouofm
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 01-26-09
                                                      • 8437

                                                      #27
                                                      could totally be true cocknocker...and i hope they cash the ticket for you and everyone else homie you know that.. just as i hope , that you hope that i cash my pirates over 3.5

                                                      how about this.. braves win tomorrow 7 to 4... everyone happy??
                                                      Comment
                                                      • deldgeetar
                                                        SBR Rookie
                                                        • 02-11-09
                                                        • 11

                                                        #28
                                                        Diamondbacks ML cash it! Sanchez starts for the Giants and they can't hit.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • cocknocker
                                                          Restricted User
                                                          • 11-06-08
                                                          • 8001

                                                          #29
                                                          I just laid the Twins-120 HEAVY and also a play on the runline+170 as well
                                                          Comment
                                                          • monkey107
                                                            SBR Rookie
                                                            • 04-12-09
                                                            • 10

                                                            #30
                                                            Atlanta heavy as well?
                                                            Comment
                                                            • tbill11
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 03-15-09
                                                              • 1451

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by deldgeetar
                                                              Diamondbacks ML cash it! Sanchez starts for the Giants and they can't hit.
                                                              Yeah I'm pretty comfortable fading the Giants until they get another win. They are just a truly awful ballclub...just look at their starting lineup!
                                                              Comment
                                                              • danrman
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 08-30-08
                                                                • 2696

                                                                #32
                                                                love all the picks except minny.. im sure you are right but i just see a desperate team in laa w/out vlad.. i dont like wagering against a team in that spot and minny this year aint so great.. i know they will be glad toronto left town but TORI HUNTER will be out to smoke his former team team
                                                                Comment
                                                                • wangichu
                                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                                  • 11-07-08
                                                                  • 946

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by cocknocker
                                                                  I see that Lannan is pitching for the Nats tomorrow. Am I missing something?

                                                                  Anyway,on another subject... when Redding makes it back from injury, he will be the Mets best pitcher by far. All that he needed is some run production behind him and presto! 15 game winner. Just add water.
                                                                  u are right. covers had olsen listed... jagoffs...
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Endz Magnet
                                                                    SBR Hustler
                                                                    • 06-14-07
                                                                    • 54

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Los Angeles Angeles +103
                                                                    Detroit Tigers +108

                                                                    Bank or Fade
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • pako74
                                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                                      • 03-22-09
                                                                      • 250

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Im on the atlanta pick also -118. What do you guys think of the Atlanta series at -115?
                                                                      Comment
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