G's baseball thread and record

[G's pks]

Does your system required any form of chasing?

Maybe what I should do is just copy/paste the rules with every new series ...might start doing that... Seeing the picks usually come by with each new series which is twice a week...

copied from post #268 with update...Ok quick reminder of the rules... The chase only lasts the maximum of the length of the series either 3/4 games, and can be as short as one game with a win.... If the first game losses, you bet slightly more than you lost on game one, and the same if game 2/3 losses. Once the chase team wins a game...the chase in that series ends.... Up to now this week system is 6-0... received a few private messages after game one of the last five series...because some of the first games lost... That will happen! This is a chase...if you do not have the discipline to bet against your gut feeling..these chases are not for you... I have forced myself to do it..and believe me the system is right quite a bit more than me![/quote]

[G's pks]

As I do when I get time... i drop notes to either agree or disagree with system picks... Well the first thing I found out is that the morrison "A" bet is on Detroit against Minnesota... well again his picks are system based also...

Here is what I see... Detroit is throwing some unknown (French) on the mound against Slowey for Minnesota. Slowey will shoot for his league leading 11th win tonight... So I still like Minnesota... they are a very strong team within shouting distance of catching Detroit...this should be one of the better weekend series... If you follow this series should be an interesting one to say the least..

Not sure I will be on anything after the Angels win last night...

If I get a chance will give a quick review other games later today...

[Dexter]

is system 2 still undefeated? too lazy to sift through all of the posts

[G's pks]

is system 2 still undefeated? too lazy to sift through all of the posts

Yes...but sooner or later it will hit a bump... The pick for this weekend already won...the Angels last night... So I went back in and pulled out the next group...

[Dexter]

Yes...but sooner or later it will hit a bump... The pick for this weekend already won...the Angels last night... So I went back in and pulled out the next group...

would a series loss at this point still have you in the green? that's the whole thing with chase systems. if you can be hot off the start and build up the roll, then your just playing with house money and the sweat would be much less when you get to the C bet.

i think i recalled you saying that if you got to a B or C bet, your not always chasing that original amount (ie, 1 unit)....your B bet is to just make a small profit and the C bet is to essentially just break even. is that right? i kinda like that idea - esp while this system is sort of brand new. if successful, you can just do a normal chase next season.

i'm kinda sick looking the the JM baseball. i decided to sit the season out and see it for my own eyes. a friend of mine has made a killing with it, and at least got me box seats at Citi field..lol

[G's pks]

Just took a look at the two other series besides the twins series that the system picked...

Ari/Col Ari has actually played better on the road than at home. The numbers between the two teams I looked at looked pretty close... The pitching matchups actually seem to favor the D-Backs... Especially in the first and third game of the series...so I will pass...not saying the system is wrong...

LAD/SD In this series the only thing I see the Padres have going for them is they have been good at home. So unless there is a major let down...the Dodgers should be able to win a game in SD...especially with the pitching matchups and their hitting...against the Padres pitiful hitting and pitching...

So of these two series I like the Dodger matchup better for a chase win... I am passing up to now this weekend... Just came back from seeing Public Enemies..the new Dillinger movie with J. Depp...very good!

thats all for now folks GL...

[G's pks]

would a series loss at this point still have you in the green? that's the whole thing with chase systems. if you can be hot off the start and build up the roll, then your just playing with house money and the sweat would be much less when you get to the C bet.

i think i recalled you saying that if you got to a B or C bet, your not always chasing that original amount (ie, 1 unit)....your B bet is to just make a small profit and the C bet is to essentially just break even. is that right? i kinda like that idea - esp while this system is sort of brand new. if successful, you can just do a normal chase next season.

i'm kinda sick looking the the JM baseball. i decided to sit the season out and see it for my own eyes. a friend of mine has made a killing with it, and at least got me box seats at Citi field..lol

I get all the JM picks like several others for free... What makes this year confusing is the offical and unoffical picks, very confusing...

I have not been following them as closely as I should,,,but they seem to be doing very good... I am not going to lay the extremely heavy juice some of his bets require though...

Yes, my system has allowed me to build up my bankroll again to suffer a series loss... Which actually did happen in system one and cost me most of the money I was up on baseball...including my own picks I was up on...

With system #2...it does not double down like system one..which I got hurt on the cards 4 game sweep at home to the rockies... System #3 if successful will allow me to start adding some more underdog picks...but from back testing might suffer more losses...

And yes, system #2, smaller betting more based to last the whole season... Smaller bets, less on second and third games... this system allows for system sweeps... System #1 did not...more do or die like JM...

Easy to try... 2 units or less, on game one, unless you really feel it is a lights out no doubt win in the series... Which i have predicted several times..and won, but continue to stay small... Except a 10 unit play which I won on Tampa Bay just to get some dollars into this system early on...

Game two just a little more than game #1, unit wise... game #3, take a loss stay small...maybe equal to losses to orless if a pitching mismatch...

So the key to showing a profit each series is simple...show a profit, no matter how small, in either game #1 with a win and that series ends. or a win showing a profit in game #2... Game #3, instead of a massive chase...back off accept a loss and move onto next series...

[Dexter]

did you start system 3 or still backtesting?

[TodaysAction]

Maybe if you gave each system a name it would be easier for people to follow and/or understand since you're now going to be bringing in a third process. Just my two cents on the subject and hope your testing and wagering work out for you.

[G's pks]

Maybe if you gave each system a name it would be easier for people to follow and/or understand since you're now going to be bringing in a third process. Just my two cents on the subject and hope your testing and wagering work out for you.

They are all winning what is this difference...

System #1 is no longer in use...

System #2 has a name...Conservative chase...

System #3 first day just a test will become part of system two... It will also win...

[G's pks]

Well my weekend pick the LAA won in the first game so that weekend series chase ended very quickly.

I just finished the filters for the weekend... The system saw one series that was so bad... I am not sure anyone will win! The series Oak at Clev...does it get any worse? Imagine watching this mess!

Well I am going to put out a system #3 test....picks/chases will not count...I am not betting them and lets see how their chases work out... You might ask if system #2 keeps winning why test another system? Well I like playing around with the stats...this is just a slight varation...

So first the chase series picks for test system #3 (I might combine #2/#3 together to create a chase pick for 5-7 series eventually... instead of the 1-5 I post now...

Ok the test chases...(system #3)

LAD
ATL Won

And...the regular unbeaten system #2 chases
LAA (won already as posted weekend pick)Won game 1 Thursday

Min
Col Won

I am a little burnt out this week... Putting the right stats to the right teams is a challenge...and then having to check all the probable pitching matchups for pitching mismatches and other trends not spotted within the filters...might take the weekend off... Might not...but the picks are listed..not in order of strenght (LAA as I said was my pick for the weekend series and already won), but I thought I would give out the rest of the system picks I came up with...

Warning the only series I applied all the filters including the second level to was the LAA which as posted won already. Need a break...

System 3 picks are a test chase... no idea how they will do... but been working on it...lets see how they do...

System #2 if you follow check for pitching mismatches, especially in game #1. If I get a chance will add notes...looking for differences within the system picks which might make one or two...ones I would avoid... This is part of what I do in the second level of filtering... Just want to relax this weekend... My accounts have hit a high point and I want to push through this area...third time this year I have been at highs in accounts and want to be careful and not fall back again...

Also to avoid the messages about the system and how it works... a basic guide is repeated throughout...but again in post #268.

Have a great 4th of July weekend... GL G.

A couple winners...will update...edit this thread when other finals come in...nice job to anyone that followed again... I was busy blowing off fireworks... no bets for me...

[TodaysAction]

They are all winning what is this difference...stop whining!

One, I was not nor am I "whining".

Two, it would be easier for those who view it to comprehend each have separate procedures.

Three, congrats that they are winning but ... I won't finish it.

Have a nice night and don't be so uptight if a person makes a comment or question in your thread.

[G's pks]

One, I was not nor am I "whining".

Two, it would be easier for those who view it to comprehend each have separate procedures.

Three, congrats that they are winning but ... I won't finish it.

Have a nice night and don't be so uptight if a person makes a comment or question in your thread.

Not uptight... I have delivered nothing but winners and that is still not good enough? Come on...whatever I call the systems... they are all really based off the first system... Three will be integrated into System #2... It will continue winning... I just get burnt out putting all this together then coming back and seeing comments like yours!

[G's pks]

]did you start system 3[/b] or still backtesting?

yes...here copied and pasted...the testing is done..the picks were listed above a few posts...one has won..one is pending...


Today, 10:34 AM #279 G's pks
SBR MVP



Join Date: 01-01-09
Posts: 3,545





Ok the test chases...(system #3)

LAD pending...winning...
ATL Won

system #2 picks were also posted...will update all at once..when over...

[G's pks]

Ok the test chases...(system #3)

LADWon game 1
ATL Won game 1

And...the regular unbeaten system #2 chases
LAA won already as posted weekend pickThursday game #1
Min Lost in 16 innings... chase moves to game #2
Col Won game 1

Have a great 4th of July weekend... GL G.

Ok 4 of the five system chases won right away in game one...including the two new system three chases...

The one chase that continues to game #2 if you played...Det/Min went 16 innings

Again none of these wins count in my record because i did not bet them...only include what I bet in record... Taking weekend off...To anyone that followed you should have a little extra green in the wallet tonight...

Back with new series picks on Monday...

[jakeandba]

nice call bro...thanks for all ur work

[BillAccpetor]

Good work G.

[G's pks]

Thanks guys... I really liked the Dodgers but wanted to take a few days off... But at least I went through the filters and posted the picks. Out of the 5 series four won immediately, one goes to a second game for a chase... So the ATL, LAD, COL, and LAA series all ended with the first game win, no more bets on them.... The Twins series is moving to a second game New picks on Monday/Tuesday when ever the system allows for filtering... G.

[dreamjob]

I played too many games last night but came out well. I bet ATL, LAD, COL, NYY, and MIN. I'm chasing MIN today. I also have ATL again. I'm ready to win.

[G's pks]

I played too many games last night but came out well. I bet ATL, LAD, COL, NYY, and MIN. I'm chasing MIN today. I also have ATL again. I'm ready to win.

Nice job...

With Min... do not let it take your winnings from the other chases/games... Stay small..come out with a profit from each group of bets... GL G.

Oh and we talked about your strategy against the Nats...hope it continues to hit..

[dreamjob]

Yes I will G. I am betting small. Betting large killed my BR with cards/rockies. I learned my lesson.

[G's pks]

Yes I will G. I am betting small. Betting large killed my BR with cards/rockies. I learned my lesson.

That is the same series..the 4 game sweep in St Lou... that caused me to revise system one... Will not have that do or die John Morrison strategy again!

[G's pks]

Quote:
Originally Posted by G's pks

Ok the test chases...(system #3)

LADWon game 1
ATL Won game 1

And...the regular unbeaten system #2 chases
LAA won already as posted weekend pickThursday game #1
Min Lost in 16 innings... chase moves to game #2Won game #2
Col Won game 1

Have a great 4th of July weekend... GL G.

Update with the twins win..system plays go to 10-0 for the week! Hope everyone is having a great 4th! G.

[dreamjob]

Thank god Minnesota won. Your picks just keep on winning. Keep them coming. I know I have to wait until Monday, I look forward to your next group of plays.

[G's pks]

Thank god Minnesota won. Your picks just keep on winning. Keep them coming. I know I have to wait until Monday, I look forward to your next group of plays.

Ok just finished the first group of filters...even though they all keep winning, make sure you pick the series where you see the best pitching and mismatches in favor of the system picks.. I just keep thinking if I just bet all the picks since I started this system how much would I be up?

Will list the system picks in a few minutes...going through, eliminating a few with second level filtering.

[G's pks]

Lets start with these series... If you do not know the rules...read back a few posts. I have been posting them every few days.

The first one that stands out is the Boston series.... There was one filter that Boston was kind of stuck with...but going to let it go because the A's failed all the screens and only Boston can beat themselves in this series... So by strength Boston will be first.

#1 Boston

Getting some really strong signals on the White Sox for the first time... All of a sudden they have started playing better.. Finished their road trip a little weak...but for now they fall in with Seattle who I am also getting a very good signal on.

So adding

#2 CWS
#3 SEA

and the last two...

#4 Detroit
#5 TB

Ok once again none of these are bets at this time...just wanted to get the three game chases up and start narrowing it down to 1-2... Will post plays later...if you are choosing a few from system do your homework...these passed the filters, any additional research will only help.. G.

[G's pks]

First thoughts... I see Boston a big favorite in game 1. Balt/Sea...tough pitching matchup...
KC/Det might be a good series to chase... I just do not see KC sweeping in Detroit...

TB tough at home and applying the home filters against the road filters of Toronto really did show that point... on paper looks like a good match up... Reminds me of the Detroit/Min series that just past this weekend that the system successfully picked Min in. Toronto not one of the better road teams...

The CWS also looks like a great chase series with a pitching mismatch in their favor to open the series Tuesday night with Buehrle on the hill against Sowers...

Might jump on CWS, Det, and Bos. As always will post my plays before the games and they will be the only ones that go in my record.... GL everyone!
G's recordkeeping
Baseball 13-3-1 picks (Counting system series baseball picks 29-4-1)
Total 37- 5-1 NHL, NBA, MLB
System #1plays based on 3/4 game series 6-1
Totalgames within series( 6-7) SYSTEM#1
System #2(10-0) games within series (10-3)
System #2 +10.55 units...

[G's pks]

Detroit -132 .50 to win .38 (50 to win 38) Game 1 of chase

Will be adding the CWS game #1 of their series for tomorrow...still not sure Sea yet because of pitching matchup... TB not till tomorrow either. Not sure if I want to lay massive juice on Smoltz/Boston yet!

[G's pks]

Adding very small bet 20 to win 10.47

Boston -191 .20 unit to win .10 of a unit

[G's pks]

chases both move to game #2 on Detroit who gave up 3 runs in 8th/9th, thanks to Zumaya and Rodney...

Anderson for the A's just shut down the Red Sox... still no pain in this staying small system, only .70 of a unit loss, losses added to in series games...

Also noticed the lines are getting tougher....Very high for Tuesday on Boston and crazy on Detroit..not sure how/if I will play them... Still probably in on the CWS...Will add bets later...

G's recordkeeping
Baseball 13-3-1 picks (Counting system series baseball picks 29-4-1)
Total 37- 5-1 NHL, NBA, MLB
System #1plays based on 3/4 game series 6-1
Totalgames within series( 6-7) SYSTEM#1
System #2(10-0) games within series (10-3)(10-5)
System #2 +10.55 units... +9.85

[G's pks]

#1 Boston(moves to game 2)
#2 CWS (game #1 of series tonight)
#3 SEA (Won game #1...so if chasing series over)
#4 Detroit (moves to game #2)
#5 TB (game #1 of series tonight)

7/7
Updated.... Boston, Detroit move to game #2... Seattle won...so that chase ends.

[G's pks]

Boston (game #2) -130 RL 1.3 units to win 1 (130/100) Eveland/Beckett must start

[G's pks]

Boston (game #2) -130 RL 1.3 units to win 1 (130/100) Eveland/Beckett must start

WON

Looks like a big day for the system picks! Will update totals later... Also had my freeplay money on the Red Sox in one of my accounts...

[G's pks]

[quote=G's pks;2004796]#1 Boston(moves to game 2)WON
#2 CWS (game #1 of series tonight)WON
#3 SEA (Won game #1...so if chasing series over)
#4 Detroit (moves to game #2)WON
#5 TB (game #1 of series tonight)WON

Ok and there it is...4-0 today a clean sweep and the system remains perfect at 5-0 for the week...

All the chases in these series won and won quickly, all end at this point....

Back with new system picks on Friday..

Have a great night everyone!!!


G's recordkeeping
Baseball 14-3-1 picks (Counting system series baseball picks 31-4-1)
Total 39- 5-1 NHL, NBA, MLB
System #1plays based on 3/4 game series 6-1
Totalgames within series( 6-7) SYSTEM#1
System #2(11-0) games within series (11-5)
System #2 +10.85

[brandon m]

Good picks man your system looks like money. I love systems and am looking forward to tailing you on your next set of picks. Thanks for the effort.