G's baseball thread and record

[Xpertcapper]

G for future reference,

I did some heavy research and digging in some posts about BouncedCheck's and some other 3-game chase systems. Some interesting stats came up.

Around 5 times per year, a home team gets swept in a 4-game home series. At least 2-3 of these 5 times, there is no explanation for the loss. A good team loses at home to another team. One indicator I've seen relates to the first few games of the series. If the home team gets absolutely shelled in the first three, or even in the first two, stay away...

Totally agree

[G's pks]

G for future reference,

I did some heavy research and digging in some posts about BouncedCheck's and some other 3-game chase systems. Some interesting stats came up.

Around 5 times per year, a home team gets swept in a 4-game home series. At least 2-3 of these 5 times, there is no explanation for the loss. A good team loses at home to another team. One indicator I've seen relates to the first few games of the series. If the home team gets absolutely shelled in the first three, or even in the first two, stay away...

A little late now... I lost all four games in this series unless somehow the Cards come up big in 9th... I am ok though... Most of baseball winnings gone... But still up for here from nba/nfl...

I am going to stick to this god damn system but adding a few more/different filters. I worked to hard on it...to have it start out 4-0...then get butt licked by a last place team!

Yeah...just checked...Just up a tiny amount now in baseball... This would have wiped me out years ago... Staying small...especially when this happens sure helps!

I will start a system # 2 tonight... Working on different filters... Again small bets...unit will only equal $10 again... Hopefully this works a little better... That is the problem with chase series...one bad series and it wipes out twice as many wins! But I like the no stress feeling... Well need to take a look before tonights games start... GL everyone! G.

[G's pks]

When I was setting up system #1... I noticed the 4 game sweeps... But I simply followed the rules I made ... I am kicking myself though because the Cards did miss one filter I use at end and ignored... Oh well money I was up in baseball gone... Still up for year total...Hopefully a better night... So system #2 much like system one...but a few changes coming.. Once again losses are expected...but hopefully not 4 in a row again...

[G's pks]

System #2 0-0... Same rules as last system... 3to 4 game chase... If game one wins series ends...if not a bet on game 2, 3, or 4 in series as necessary. Betting each time more than previous to win unit amount....... Last system was actually 6-1, but had more losses than wins in games within the series...and I was not doubling up...and will not be doubling up again...Play ball!

Texas -152 3 units to win 1.97
CWS -113 3 units to win 2.65
Oak -152 3 units to win 1.97

[G's pks]

[quote=G's pks;1921690]System #2 0-0... Same rules as last system... 3to 4 game chase... If game one wins series ends...if not a bet on game 2, 3, or 4 in series as necessary. Betting each time more than previous to win unit amount....... Last system was actually 6-1, but had more losses than wins in games within the series...and I was not doubling up...and will not be doubling up again...Play ball!

Texas -152 3 units to win 1.97 Lost (0-1) in games in series
CWS -113 3 units to win 2.65 Won win ends this series
Oak -152 3 units to win 1.97Won win ends this series



New system starts out with two wins and a series going to second game. I may not always chase when I win two of three... Going to look numbers over but a very nice start to system #2.

System #2 totals
Series 2-0
Total games within series 2-1

Totals +1.62 units

[dreamjob]

Nice plays G. I used 2 out of 3 of your picks. Unfortunately I went 1-1 but I love the rangers at home. I think they will take it home tomorrow night.
DJ

[G's pks]

WP: J. Contreras - CWS (1-5) LP: J. Bonderman - DET (0-1) If this was the game you skipped... I really thought the white sox should have not sent Contreras down to the minors earlier this year...but it looks like it helped...he looked fantastic tonight! But I also knew Boderman had not started in a very long time and read his velocity was no where near 100%... I watched the sox first game of the doubleheader earlier in the day and they fought back and they threw it away in the 9th with shabby fielding... Figured they would come out ready in second game.. Glad they did...

[dreamjob]

Yep that was the game I skipped. The rangers better take care of business today.
DJ

[GGPLAYER]

I'm on it too except I would have felt better about Tex if McCarthy was pitching.

[G's pks]

Yep that was the game I skipped.(SOX) The rangers better take care of business today.
DJ

Of the 3 games yesterday the sox were the hardest for me to enter bet on because it was more of a third system pick I am working on...but did fall under the chase...but odd sox are having a 5 game series with Tigers? But in the end it won so I was happy.

[G's pks]

I'm on it too except I would have felt better about Tex if McCarthy was pitching.

I never got the chance to apply the new filters to any of the series that start today...

Also like you i would rather have seen McCarthy in... I am skipping any bets tonight but the system pick would still be the Rangers because of the chase. But I just have a little to much going on today. I am going to hide all the scores later and spend the hour applying to all the new series and maybe jump in on a chase in game 2 of the series that start tonight...

GL guys on texas...decided to pass because of Mathis... No bets tonight G.

[G's pks]

Glad I skipped the hammering of Texas last night... One pick up to now for tonight... Not a system pick...

6/10
Cards -104 3.12 units to win 3
This play win or lose will not go into my system picks but into my individual record picks... Come on Cards you jagoffs! Costing me 4 straight losses in that chase...bring a little back for me!

[G's pks]

St. Louis 13, Florida 4 Winner!

G's recordkeeping
Baseball 10-3-1 picks (Counting system series picks 16-4-1)
Total 24- 5-1 NHL, NBA, MLB
System #1plays based on 3/4 game series 6-1
Totalgames within series( 6-7) SYSTEM#1

System #2(2-0) games within series (2-1)

[G's pks]

I had no action tonight...but system#2 added the sweep with texas winning... ..Now that the series is over... I am adding the 1st 3 system#2 series wins to my record(CWS, OAK, TEX)...just needed to slow my pace again... with a night off..
G's recordkeeping
Baseball 10-3-1 picks (Counting system series picks 19-4-1)
Total 27- 5-1 NHL, NBA, MLB
System #1plays based on 3/4 game series 6-1
Totalgames within series( 6-7) SYSTEM#1

System #2(3-0) games within series (3-1)

[G's pks]

6/12

system #2 series picks

Tampa Bay
Toronto

My first play for the weekend:

Tampa Bay 10 units to win 4.17 unit GL Everyone!

no other bets tonight...GL everyone

Update! Kapler of all people hits a pinch homer in bottom of 8th!!

[G's pks]

Of all people to win the game... Gabe Kapler batting .182, 2 hr's hits a home run in bottom of 8th to win the game!


Nationals
3(16-43, 6-21 away)Rays
4(32-31, 19-12 home)
Final

System #2 series goes to 4-0, games within series 4-2(including Toronto loss, even though no bet fit in system)

System #2 +5.79 units will add win from series into total record end of weekend...


Chase for Tampa Bay ends..1-0, Toronto chase moves to game 2, not sure I will bet that one either...will wait and see...glad I passed on Toronto tonight...

[G's pks]

TB came through nicely last night to win one of the two system plays...luckily the one I had. Toronto lost late and in games series is 0-1. Problem is...I guess too many filters can filter out just about anything. But to be on the safe side I am not going to play game two of the Toronto chase against the Marlins either. Skipped the first one because I did not want to lay heavy chalk on the Jays after already placing my bet TB..

The filter that is snagging this one falls under my pitching mismatch category... West for the Marlins has a whip of 0.95, as well as a era of 2.22 in limited duty. While Janssen for the jays has a whip of 1.79 and a very poor era of 5.24... So I am passing on this game...due to filters... I will still count the chase in the series but not in my record...

No other plays at this time, once again this system is working extremely well. Adding and formatting these filters for future picks this morning. Trying to set it up so filter picks up games past the start of the series... Might try one later, if not...either way GL everyone...just glad to be even for the week after the Cards screwed me earlier in week under system #1 plays...

[G's pks]

The system once again pays off...this time with a no play...glad i avoided Toronto. No action today/tonight for me... Might have to wait for new series at this point for a system pick. Do not see anything jumping out at me. Hopefully some that are trying chases realize that no bets in a chase can also pay off... Second time in the last few days with system #2 that I got a no bet and avoiding the play was the correct choice...GL everyone in your action today/tonight..

G.

[G's pks]

Not a system pick will go in my personal pick record...small wager on Cubbies.

Cubs -133 .5 of a unit to win .38 GL everyone!

[jakeandba]

just so i can understand with my dinosaur size brain, the system had two picks according to post 155. But the only pick that you played was TB? is that correct?

[G's pks]

just so i can understand with my dinosaur size brain, the system had two picks according to post 155. But the only pick that you played was TB? is that correct?

Yes...in system #2... I am using a method I use for my own handicapping pitching mismatches...as well as 7 added filters, and a couple dropped from system one. Now right around twenty filters total, half based on the home team, half based on the road team. So the match up becomes more of a home verus road team situation.

In game #2 of Toronto/Florida series there was a pitching mismatch in favor of Florida... In game #1, I decided to just go with one pick.. I chose Tampa Bay based on the filters over Washington... did not want to drop heavy chalk on the beginning of two separate chases...so Washington's road record was a major factor in deciding TB over Toronto...

I passed on the Toronto series due to the heavy chalk in game #1, the pitching mismatch in game #2, and in game #3... I passed due to the continued dominance of Florida over the Jays... The system originally #1, did not factor in for pitching mismatches or dominance of one team over another... So these are 2 of the new filters in System #2. I am doing all my filters one by one in a works spreadsheet..takes a long time, so as in this case the picks at times will be limited.


The Cubs play today does fit within some of the criteria of the chase system...but is a personal pick...did not apply all the filters.

Hope that helps...the main difference between system #1 and #2. Is applying a few new filters, then going over the group of postive/negative filters as applied. The Jays passed the filters but the newly added handicapping filters,pitcher mismatch and team dominance turned out to put up a flashing red light.

It has saved me two losses by not just chasing when there is a pitching mismatch. Also when Thompson pitched in game #4 of the rockies series last week...which I lost... System #2 would have failed the play on the second tier of filtering... Lots of work for a few picks...but I had several saying oh bigdeal you pick only a few games a week!

Well now with the system plays added, I am picking quite a few more..

Cubs just took the lead, 2-1! Come on Cubbies! Small bet but still would like to win!

Also the units played will be based on the strength of the pick. Tampa Bay was a 10 unit play...and a winner(way more than my 2 to 3 unit average) But you will never hear me screaming>>> Lo*k will not even spell it! ...otherwise system #2 would have already been in trouble!


Hope that helps! G.

[G's pks]

Ok and then you might ask well why not take Toronto over Florida today... Well for tons of reasons!

The red lights come out right away...

Here are some problems that came up:

Marlins continue to dominate Jays badly...

Pitching mismatch! The filters will not see who is pitching!!!

Well how/what causes this no play...

Well here is where the work comes in!

The system picks it...but the pitching mismatch here is completely overwhelming!

These stats are current but will easily show you how to avoid a chase pick...mine, yours whoevers...
Marlins...............Jays
Johnson era 2.73 Tallet 4.86
Records 6-1...................4-4
Whip 1.07..............Whip1.29

Pitching mismatch notes...

Johnson hot pitcher*

4 wins in a row


make it 5 with today!

Tallet has not won 2 games in a row all year!

Hopefully this gives you a much better understanding of some of my filters... Damn cubbies..tied at 2 now... Go Cubbies!

[G's pks]

Not a system pick will go in my personal pick record...small wager on Cubbies.

Cubs -133 .5 of a unit to win .38 GL everyone!

Win!
Cubs win! Bottom of 9th!!!

Time to add another win to the record!


G's recordkeeping
Baseball 11-3-1 picks (Counting system series picks 21-4-1)
Total 29- 5-1 NHL, NBA, MLB
System #1plays based on 3/4 game series 6-1
Totalgames within series( 6-7) SYSTEM#1

System #2(4-0) games within series (4-2)
System #2 total +6.17 units
__________________

[dreamjob]

Ok and then you might ask well why not take Toronto over Florida today... Well for tons of reasons!

The red lights come out right away...

Here are some problems that came up:

Marlins continue to dominate Jays badly...

Pitching mismatch! The filters will not see who is pitching!!!

Well how/what causes this no play...

Well here is where the work comes in!

The system picks it...but the pitching mismatch here is completely overwhelming!

These stats are current but will easily show you how to avoid a chase pick...mine, yours whoevers...
Marlins...............Jays
Johnson era 2.73 Tallet 4.86
Records 6-1...................4-4
Whip 1.07..............Whip1.29

Pitching mismatch notes...

Johnson hot pitcher*

4 wins in a row


make it 5 with today!

Tallet has not won 2 games in a row all year!

Hopefully this gives you a much better understanding of some of my filters... Damn cubbies..tied at 2 now... Go Cubbies!

Great call G. I played the FLA myself and got some decent coin. Who would've thought that Toronto would get swept at home by Florida. Halladay is day to day. Could be a disaster for Toronto.
DJ

[jakeandba]

thank you very much in helping me understand...my brain has swelled to the size of a shark,..lol...thanks again bro

[G's pks]

Great call G. I played the FLA myself and got some decent coin. Who would've thought that Toronto would get swept at home by Florida. Halladay is day to day. Could be a disaster for Toronto.
DJ

Thanks! I hope Halladay is ok... It would be a major loss without him. There are always a few teams each week getting swept. Sometimes you never know.. Glad to hear you played the marlins.

[G's pks]

thank you very much in helping me understand...my brain has swelled to the size of a shark,..lol...thanks again bro

You are welcome... Just need to learn to use the edge the other way... Right now just use it to not make a pick at all.

[G's pks]

The homework is done! 3 game chase series starting 5/16

Here is what I am getting for system #2 picks...by strength first... Remember these are maximum a three game chase. The game/series ends with any win within the series....

#1 LAD
#2 NYY
#3 SF
#4 MIN
#5 BOS


I am not sure which series I am going to play yet... Wanted to get them posted so if you see an edge take advantage of these 3 game chases... The one/ones I bet will go into the system #2 record....

A few notes...on paper it was green light after green light for the Dodgers over A's.

I see a pitching mismatch in SF over LAA for the whole series....

Min, SF, and Bos the signals were good..not fantastic...

NYY going to be super high chalk alll series over the Nats...

Any questions on any of these series and what I saw drop me a pm...

[dreamjob]

Hey G by the way SF plays LAA in about an hour. If your betting this series better get your bet in soon.

[G's pks]

I see the SF/LAA series starts later tonight the 15th... I am not betting tonight so that series will be eliminated.... But SF should with the strength of their pitching win a game and the chase within series... So down to four team chases... still not sure which I will be playing...will be very hard for me to resist the Dodgers in this 3 game chase though....

[G's pks]

Hey G by the way SF plays LAA in about an hour. If your betting this series better get your bet in soon.

Was typing when you posted!

Going to pass on that one...thanks G.

Had my head buried in stats all day.. Actually ran through every single team today! So I expect some nice wins this week...

[G's pks]

Play for 5/16

Los Angeles Dodgers ML -148 1 unit to win .68 GL everyone!
D Braden -L must Start C Kershaw -L must Start

First game of chase...

no other picks yet...system #2 pick...

[dreamjob]

I like the dodger pick. I heard the chalk for the yanks is around -360. That's real nasty chalk. I might place a small bet on the over.
DJ

[G's pks]

I like the dodger pick. I heard the chalk for the yanks is around -360. That's real nasty chalk. I might place a small bet on the over.
DJ

I will stay small on the Dodger series and expect to show a profit even if they lose a game or two. Going to go back to small bets steady profit...long year... Will probably go 1 unit, 2 unit, 4 unit if I have to... We will see...

Yes Yanks is a tough one...big chalk as expected...maybe RL...not sure...might pass on series...

[G's pks]

system starts out week 3-0, NYY, MIN, BOS all win first game of series...so those series are over...last series pending is the DODGERS...GAME 1 PENDING...