Mlb 2015

[BiffTFinancial]

Hey Biff..

Looking at the Rangers game..

Basner is the ump.. I'm looking at him now. Small strike zone with this guy? I was thinking about getting on the Rangers TT over and also the F5 over 4.5 at +100. Any thoughts?

Basner a slight over ump for me. like game over so agree with FF over. BOL whatever you decide!

[terrortwylight]

Who are your personal fave over/under guys?

[BiffTFinancial]

Sunday 5.24.2015 final card
1* Tribe RL (+130) - WINNER
1* Brewers/Braves R+H+E over 25 (-110) - LOSER
1* Twins TT over 3' (+100) - WINNER
1* Giants TT over 5 (+105) - LOSER
1* Rangers TT over 4 (+135) - WINNER

3-2 +1.55u

77-64-11 +17.88u season to date

[BiffTFinancial]

Week One: 10-5 +5.76u
Week Two: 11-12-4 -1.61u
Week Three: 15-9-3 +6.28u
Week Four: 15-17-1 -0.62u
Week Five: 5-10-1 -6.37u
Week Six: 2-2 -0.37u
Week Seven: 19-9-1 +14.81u
OVERALL: 77-64-11 +17.88u

[BiffTFinancial]

Who are your personal fave over/under guys?

Tim McClelland was the greatest over guy of all-time, but he retired due to back injury. i miss him.

My list is ever-changing (umps get graded on their zone and adjust just as players do - i pay attention and take a lot of notes; for example, Ted Barrett used to be under guy), but for the moment, my top guys are (no particular order):

OVERS: Diaz, Morales, Meals, West, Ted Barrett
UNDERS: Eddings, Danley, Iassogna, Kulpa, Hoye

One note: I never play over or under blindly based upon ump. Ump factors are an overlay in my model. Put another way, if other factors don't agree (e.g., park, weather, SPs, bullpen form and fatigue, offense form including adjustment for RHP/LHP facing, trends), then that overlay likely won't be enough for me to play it. i do not believe in blindly playing anything; umps are just another factor, albeit a potentially strong one when accompanying factors agree.

[BiffTFinancial]

Don't know if we have any armed forces personnel past or present (or family members of armed forced personnel past or present) who frequent the thread, but if so, i would like to say Happy Memorial Day and offer my most sincere thanks for that service. It is sacrifices like yours that make it possible for the rest us to have the full and wonderful lives that we have. Thank you, thank you, thank you.

[BiffTFinancial]

Red Sox go for 3rd straight W today. They are 1-4 SU in this spot this season & win was in season's first week (losses: 5-10, 5-7, 2-9, 1-2)

[ramfan47]

Thank You!

[BiffTFinancial]

Monday 5.25.2015
1* Rockies/Reds over 8' (-114)

[Razorbacks1]

Don't know if we have any armed forces personnel past or present (or family members of armed forced personnel past or present) who frequent the thread, but if so, i would like to say Happy Memorial Day and offer my most sincere thanks for that service. It is sacrifices like yours that make it possible for the rest us to have the full and wonderful lives that we have. Thank you, thank you, thank you.

Well said Biff. I am not one of those, but wanted to say Thank You also. If you can check out the Fightin' Phil's. Nice price against Bartolo. Not that I think Gonzales is going to the all star game, but two runs in 5 AT Colorado has me chomping. Of course the last time I felt this against the Mets is when they beat Garza like 11-0 or something like that. Anyways enjoy the day. Hope all is better on the personal front.

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

1* Rockies team total over 4 (+100)

Memorial Day - Monday 5.25.2015 updated card
1* Rockies/Reds over 8' (-114)
1* Rockies TT over 4 (+100)

[BiffTFinancial]

Well said Biff. I am not one of those, but wanted to say Thank You also. If you can check out the Fightin' Phil's. Nice price against Bartolo. Not that I think Gonzales is going to the all star game, but two runs in 5 AT Colorado has me chomping. Of course the last time I felt this against the Mets is when they beat Garza like 11-0 or something like that. Anyways enjoy the day. Hope all is better on the personal front.

i lean Phils but probably pass. agree that's a good price with the way that Colon is pitching lately.

Best to you too, pal. Things are great, thanks for asking. BOL today!

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

2* Grand Salami over 128' (-110)
1* Astros/Orioles over 7' (-115)
1* Tigers/A's over 7' (-110)

Memorial Day - Monday 5.25.2015 updated card
2* Grand Salami over 128' (-110)
1* Rockies/Reds over 8' (-114)
1* Rockies TT over 4 (+100)
1* Astros/Orioles over 7' (-115)
1* Tigers/A's over 7' (-110)

[Fabiodog]

I like when u post your leans and look to see if we think the same .

[BiffTFinancial]

Last 6 Memorial Days
59 overs
27 unders
3 pushes

Average runs per game: 9.8

[BiffTFinancial]

I like when u post your leans and look to see if we think the same .

other leans that didn't play

Royals/Royals TT over 4 (+100)/game over 8'
Brewers -1 RL (+121)
Twins ML (+103)
Padres ML (+128)

probably like the Pads the best and going to keep that in my pocket for later. if the day is going well, may add that or otherwise look to fade Weaver in that game. BOL today.

[Vasco]

adding

2* Grand Salami over 128' (-110)
1* Astros/Orioles over 7' (-115)
1* Tigers/A's over 7' (-110)

Memorial Day - Monday 5.25.2015 updated card
2* Grand Salami over 128' (-110)
1* Rockies/Reds over 8' (-114)
1* Rockies TT over 4 (+100)
1* Astros/Orioles over 7' (-115)
1* Tigers/A's over 7' (-110)

Like a lot of overs today too. What do you think of Morton vs Phelps? 7.5 seems a little low. And 8.5 with Twins vs Sox looks good. Joe Kelly looking to get crushed once again.

[BiffTFinancial]

Like a lot of overs today too. What do you think of Morton vs Phelps? 7.5 seems a little low. And 8.5 with Twins vs Sox looks good. Joe Kelly looking to get crushed once again.

yeah, i noticed in years past that Memorial Day tends to be high-scoring, and then saw someone on another site post that trend that i posted above. add that to the fact that today's weather forecasts have a ton of warm day games with 10-20 mph breeze out in small stadiums or parks where the ball really flies on days like today (Bronx, Baltimore, Cincy, Twins, Wrigley, Tribe, Milwaukee). i normally lean towards unders, but today, only ones on which i'd even consider under were Phils/Mets, Braves/Dodgers, Pads/Halos. no major under umps due up today.

i have something like 8.6 to 8.9. i lean over but think there are better options. i have Sox/Twins at around 8.7-8.8, but with a high ceiling. Twins home games are high-scoring, and with the weather, i think that if they played this game 10 times, it would go over 8' 5-6 times, but probably hits 10+ in 3-4 chances. i could make a strong argument for Sox/Twins over, BOL whatver you decide.

[BiffTFinancial]

Salami over now 129' -125 at 5D, 130' at betus

[buddha]

Week One: 10-5 +5.76u
Week Two: 11-12-4 -1.61u
Week Three: 15-9-3 +6.28u
Week Four: 15-17-1 -0.62u
Week Five: 5-10-1 -6.37u
Week Six: 2-2 -0.37u
Week Seven: 19-9-1 +14.81u
OVERALL: 77-64-11 +17.88u

Nice work, continued success to you

[terrortwylight]

Tim McClelland was the greatest over guy of all-time, but he retired due to back injury. i miss him.

My list is ever-changing (umps get graded on their zone and adjust just as players do - i pay attention and take a lot of notes; for example, Ted Barrett used to be under guy), but for the moment, my top guys are (no particular order):

OVERS: Diaz, Morales, Meals, West, Ted Barrett
UNDERS: Eddings, Danley, Iassogna, Kulpa, Hoye

One note: I never play over or under blindly based upon ump. Ump factors are an overlay in my model. Put another way, if other factors don't agree (e.g., park, weather, SPs, bullpen form and fatigue, offense form including adjustment for RHP/LHP facing, trends), then that overlay likely won't be enough for me to play it. i do not believe in blindly playing anything; umps are just another factor, albeit a potentially strong one when accompanying factors agree.

Thank you so much for taking the time to do that.

I'm going to seriously start looking at this umpire stuff. Like you said, not as THE deciding factor, but just an icing on the cake sort of thing when I like a play for different reasons beforehand.

[buddha]

Thank you so much for taking the time to do that.

I'm going to seriously start looking at this umpire stuff. Like you said, not as THE deciding factor, but just an icing on the cake sort of thing when I like a play for different reasons beforehand.

Totally. Umpires is a sharp tool to include in one's arsenal. Surprising how few employ it.

[BiffTFinancial]

Memorial Day - Monday 5.25.2015 final card
2* Grand Salami over 128' (-110) - LOSER
1* Rockies/Reds over 8' (-114) - WINNER
1* Rockies TT over 4 (+100) - WINNER
1* Astros/Orioles over 7' (-115) - LOSER
1* Tigers/A's over 7' (-110) - LOSER

2-3 -2.45u

79-67-11 +15.43u season to date

[BiffTFinancial]

Came up just short on big play on Grand Salami over, 6 of final 7 games stayed under.

Final results on 2015 Memorial Day totals:
7 overs
8 unders
average runs/game: 8.27

Memorial Day - last 7 seasons:
66 overs
35 unders
3 pushes
average runs/game: 9.58

[BiffTFinancial]

Tuesday 5.26.2015
1* Mariners/Rays under 7 (-106)
1* Red Sox/Twins over 8 (-115)

[BiffTFinancial]

also like Giants/Brewers under 7' (need roof closed, so waiting for status there) and Pads/Halos over 8 (need to look into that one further).

[BiffTFinancial]

eying Royals ML +102, wanting to find way to back them after Memorial Day blowout. they have to be champing at the bit to play again after yesterday, and play well off a loss (20-7), as road dog (15-5), on road vs RHP (17-7). Yanks just 2-5 off win, 1-4 at home vs LHP. Last two seasons, Yankees have played 7 games after scoring 10+ runs their previous game. Results: Yanks 2-5 SU, averaging 2.57 runs vs opp 5.71
.

Vargas good numbers vs Yanks he's likely to see other than Headley (assuming Beltran not well enough to return to lineup):

NEW YORK YANKEES CAREER STATISTICS VS. JASON VARGAS
BATTER AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO AVG OBP SLG OPS
Carlos Beltran 7 3 0 0 1 3 2 0 .429 .556 .857 1.413
Stephen Drew 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 .111 .111 .111 .222
Jacoby Ellsbury 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 .200 .200 .200 .400
Brett Gardner 5 1 0 0 0 1 0 3 .200 .200 .200 .400
Chase Headley 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 2 .429 .429 .429 .857
Brian McCann 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000
Gregorio Petit 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.000 1.000 1.000 2.000
Alex Rodriguez 8 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 .000 .200 .000 .200
Brendan Ryan 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000
Mark Teixeira 17 4 1 0 1 3 0 0 .235 .235 .471 .706
Chris Young 11 2 1 0 0 0 1 1 .182 .250 .273 .523
Totals 80 17 2 0 2 7 5 10 .213 .259 .313 .571

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

1* Royals ML (+100)

Tuesday 5.26.2015 updated card
1* Royals ML (+100)
1* Mariners/Rays under 7 (-106)
1* Red Sox/Twins over 8 (-115)

[BiffTFinancial]

trying to summon up the stones to play Yanks TT under 4 (-115)

[Vinnie Paz]

What do you have jays tt at?

[McCarthyFam]

what are your thoughts on Tigers at -110. Seems like an odd line for Price. I would have expected -130 to -140.

[BiffTFinancial]

what are your thoughts on Tigers at -110. Seems like an odd line for Price. I would have expected -130 to -140.

That line has to be based upon notion that Miguel Cabrera is sitting. If you like Tigers, I'd advise waiting for lineups and being ready to pounce if Miggy is in.

[BiffTFinancial]

What do you have jays tt at?

It's all about the roof.

Open: 5.5 or so
Closed: 4.8 or so

No annoucement yet. Yesterday, they announced around 5 pm on Twitter.

[BiffTFinancial]

@IstheDomeOpen: The dome will be OPEN for the @BlueJays vs the Chicago @WhiteSox at 7:07PM at the @Rogers_Centre

[BiffTFinancial]

For anyone who like to play the score in first inning wagers, this season Despaigne 5-0, Shoemaker 6-2 to the YES on run scoring in first inning. Pads/Halos run scoring in 1st inning is +100 at 5D.