Super Road Dog Chase

[skyscrapers]

Objective:
Bet on the biggest road dog on the card for that day in a 4-game chase.

Conditions:
Road dogs only. No home dogs as backtest shows it's not very reliable
Odds must be moneyline between +100 (2.00) and +199 (2.99)
We will use Pinnacle odds as a reference. If a second book is needed we will use 5Dimes.
One play per day only.
When there's no road dogs that day then there will be no plays.

Backtests:
2012 Spring Training (15-2) -5.54*
2012 Regular Season (76-8) +79.3*
Total: (91-10) +73.76*

2013 Spring Training (17-1) +16.45*
2013 Regular Season (63-12) -0.97*
Total: (80-13) +15.48*

2014 Spring Training (12-1) +10.63*
2014 Regular Season (62-11) +24.04*
Total: (74-12) +34.67*

2015 Spring Training (16-0) +24.54*

System:
This system is a +EV chase system. Every series won will produce a profit that will more than double, triple your original bet or more. The deeper the series go the larger the profit. Every series loss will always be -15*.

For example
(A) bet with odds of +120 (2.20) so your stake would be 100 to win 120 -> if you win then you win 120
(B) bet with odds of +145 (2.45) so your stake would be 200 to win 490 -> if you win then you win 190
(C) bet with odds of +189 (2.89) so your stake would be 400 to win 1,156 -> if you win then you win 456
(D) bet with odds of +163 (2.63) so your stake would be 800 to win 2,104 -> if you win then you win 604

This system will require line watching up to just before gametime to determine the biggest dog of the day. There are a few days you are just unable to play the biggest dog of the day due to line movements so we'll just do our best to determine the team we will bet on. If two or more dogs are tied in odds after we consult with Pinnacle and 5Dimes, we will play the team with the better overall record. We will chase through the all-star break.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alternate Run-line Experimental Chase:
This is the same chase as above with the same team but with the Alternate -1.5 Run-line on the dog except that there are no odds limitations like above. Note this is only an experiment so play at own risk.

Backtests (regular season):
2012 (56-15)
2013 (46-21)
2014 (32-18)

With odds that will be much higher than the moneyline chase there should be profit to be made even with the higher number of series losses and fewer series wins. Again this is only an experiment as there's no data on alternate run-line odds to do a proper backtest. Again this is only an experiment so play at own risk.

Good Luck

[skyscrapers]

Looks like today's play may be on the Cardinals but let see if it stays above +100

[skyscrapers]

(a) stl 2.00
(a) stl -1.5 2.61

[skyscrapers]

M/L Chase: (1-0) +1.0*
Alternate R/L Chase: (1-0) +1.61*

Likely play for tomorrow either NYM or SD

[skyscrapers]

(A) sd 2.70
(A) sd -1.5 4.10

[mrginandtonic]

(A) sd 2.70
(A) sd -1.5 4.10

Interesting system. Just curious on the method of chase. So if you lose today, you chase with San Diego or do you chase with the biggest dog the following day? Tks in advance.

[skyscrapers]

Interesting system. Just curious on the method of chase. So if you lose today, you chase with San Diego or do you chase with the biggest dog the following day? Tks in advance.

Yes, the chase would continue with the biggest road dog the following day.
If the ML wins but RL loses you would still bet on the same team the next day but (A) bet on ML and (B) on RL.

[skyscrapers]

Apr. 07 Tue

(B bet risk 2u) TEX 2.46
(B bet risk 2u) TEX -1.5 3.32

[A4K]

So if you lose a chase it equates to losing 15 units?

[Jeff_Black]

It seems like a similar strategy to the NBA underdog quarter winner system but I get the idea. Sounds good but it's the similar risk if it doesn't pan out. I guess you can hedge out in play if you don't think it'll pay off.

And as of right now I imagine you'd take the Twins tommorow

[skyscrapers]

Don't you just love it when these heavy favorites go down!!

Yes A4K, unlike all other chase systems loses this chase will always only lose 15units per series lose.

[A4K]

In baseball, if you eat a lot of chalk, you will choke away your bankroll.

[skyscrapers]

At the moment yes likely (A) bet on Twins for tomorrow but I always wait very close to gametime.

[skyscrapers]

M/L Chase: (2-0) +2.92u
Alternate R/L Chase: (2-0) +5.25u

[skyscrapers]

Apr 08 Wed

(A bet risk 1 unit) MIN 2.46
(A bet risk 1 unit) MIN -1.5 3.40

[mdunlap3]

Epic fail

[snark]

I wondered when this idiot would come out of the woodwork. The dumbass is back with more of his stupid chases. Stay tuned, there will be more losers in the future.

[skyscrapers]

I wondered when this idiot would come out of the woodwork. The dumbass is back with more of his stupid chases. Stay tuned, there will be more losers in the future.

So where were you for the last 2 months of last year's thread?

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/baseball-betting/2847788-10-runs-home-chase-system.html

Hiding like a coward when other's are winning.
Stay tuned to see when your ass gets banned here. You were very close to it last year.

[Jeff_Black]

Keep going with it, Twins again I like anyway with Gibson there.

[skyscrapers]

Keep going with it, Twins again I like anyway with Gibson there.

Ya I like the Twins too Jeff but the Rangers odds have passed the Twins so at the moment Rangers is the play. Have to keep an eye on it.

[skyscrapers]

Apr 09 Thu

(B bet risk 2u) TEX 2.36
(B bet risk 2u) TEX -1.5 3.17

[skyscrapers]

(B bet risk 2u) TEX 2.36 Win
(B bet risk 2u) TEX -1.5 3.17Win

M/L Chase: (3-0) +4.64u
Alternate R/L Chase: (3-0) +8.59u
Total: (6-0) +13.23u

[snark]

Oh shit, the dreaded "ban", please not that.

[skyscrapers]

Apr. 10 Fri


(A) CHC 2.25
(A) CHC -1.5 2.89

[takethepnts]

Apr. 10 Fri


(A) CHC 2.25
(A) CHC -1.5 2.89

Good try. Keep up the good work and thanks for sharing your system plays. Try and ignore any haters - Its not like its a pay for picks subscription here on these forums ... we're all trying to eek out profit however possible and sometimes even when a system doesent work (Not to say ths wont in any way) , It sparks other ideas .
Best of luck the rest the way brother .

[skyscrapers]

Good try. Keep up the good work and thanks for sharing your system plays. Try and ignore any haters - Its not like its a pay for picks subscription here on these forums ... we're all trying to eek out profit however possible and sometimes even when a system doesent work (Not to say ths wont in any way) , It sparks other ideas .
Best of luck the rest the way brother .

Thanks bud. There will always be people that will bitch and complain about everything yet they don't do anything.

[skyscrapers]

Apr 11 Sat

(B) MIN 2.40
(B) MIN -1.5 3.15

[skyscrapers]

Apr 12 Sun

(C) MIN 2.56
(C) MIN -1.5 3.33

[skyscrapers]

Apr 13 Mon

(D) MIL 2.56
(D) MIL -1.5 3.63

[skyscrapers]

(D) MIL 2.56 - WIN
(D) MIL -1.5 3.63 - LOSS

M/L Chase: (4-0) +10.12u
Alt R/L Chase: (3-1) -6.41u
Total: (7-1) +3.71u

[skyscrapers]

Apr. 14 Tue

(A) PHI 2.95
(A) PHI -1.5 3.99

[skyscrapers]

Apr 15 Wed

(B) PHI 2.47
(B) PHI -1.5 3.42

[skyscrapers]

Apr 16 Thu

(C) ARI 2.55
(C) ARI -1.5 3.66

[takethepnts]

Nice one Sky . Great job so far. This game was up and down like a yo-yo , but that NEW Arizona Pitcher ..This is the second time he's shined vs last years champs ... gotta keep an eye on him . Have a super weekend :-)

[skyscrapers]

Nice one Sky . Great job so far. This game was up and down like a yo-yo , but that NEW Arizona Pitcher ..This is the second time he's shined vs last years champs ... gotta keep an eye on him . Have a super weekend :-)

Ya too bad they screwed up our RL by blowing the 4-1 lead and then going into extras but at the end they won it!!