DFoster 2009 MLB thread

[DFoster]

Something to remember, nobody wins everyday and nobody loses everyday. If what you do normally works, stick with it as it will turn out the profits for you. If not, come up with another selection process AFTER backtesting it several seasons. Also, try to remind yourself to think "big picture" (season) and not focus on a bad day/week/month. So you stubbed your toe, put a bandaid on it and move forward. Good luck with your selections tonight.

Thanks. The advice is always appreciated. I'm definitley not as experienced as you or others on this site. The more I learn, the better off I'll be so any and all advice/criticism will be well received.

[DFoster]

KC ML +179 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
DET Tigers ML +103 ---1 unit, DET -1.5 RL +169 --- 1 unit --- LOSS -2.00
COL Rockies ML +114 --- 1 unit, COL -1.5 RL +169 --- 1 unit --- WIN +2.83
MIN ML +154 --- 1.5 units --- PPD
WAS ML +115 --- 1.5 units --- WIN +1.73
TEX Rangers +199 --- 2 units --- WIN +3.98
BAL Orioles ML -103 --- 2 units --- WIN +1.94

Yesterday's record:
4-2, 66.67%, +6.48

I added the STL over at the last minute for 2.5 units and added it to my blog but didn't add it here unfortunately...so overall it was a pretty solid day.

[DFoster]

Today's leans before capping trends, umpires, etc:

PIT over FLA
ARI RL
ARI/COL under 9.5 ---- played for 1 unit last night
MIN ML (Liriano game)
OAK/NYY under
OAK ML
CWS ML
NYM ML
NYM/STL over 9
TB/SEA over 9
LAA ML
TEX/TOR over 10
KC ML

These are the games that stick out that have value when glancing at the game, pitchers, and posted lines. I'll be posting plays with small write up's today on my blog. I may just start a daily thread to discuss my final picks here as well.

[Smith]

Good day yesterday D. Had the bad day yesterday for myself, but looking into today now. Like most of your leans so far. Ariz game, not sure, like the under but they just are not hitting for their aces so far.

[DFoster]

PIT in first 5 innings -103 --- 1.5 units

More picks made but I'll post them soon.

[DFoster]

1st play was a win...so a solid way to start the day

Other plays for the day:
COL/ARI under 9.5 -121 --- 2 units
PHI TT over 5 -103 --- 2 units
TB/SEA over 9 --- 2 units
ANA ML +100 --- 2 units
TEX/TOR over 10 -106 --- 2 units

Parlay plays:
PHI ML/Over 10 --- 1 unit to win 2.18
ARI ML/under 9 parlay --- 1 unit to win 2.16

Current Leans and comments from earlier leans:
ARI RL - possible still

CIN ML - Lilly was racked by the Reds in 2008. Cueto has a ton of potential. Could be a great bet, even though I hate betting for/against my Cubs.

KC ML - I like the line here and Bannister's career against CLE. I hate KC's inability to hit lefties. I'm waiting to see on this one.

MIN ML (Liriano game) - unlikely play. BOS crushes lefties and hits much better at home...and MIN hasn't faired well in Boston recently

CWS ML - I like Danks here but Baltimore hit him well last year and with Diaz (large homer) behind the plate, I can't get myself to make a play here.

NYM ML - No Play
NYM/STL over 9.5 --- NP, umpire is on an under streak...if wind is blowing out, I may play it but unlikely

KC/CLE over - no play here. KC can't hit lefties. Bannister has thrown extremely well against CLE in 30+ career innings. Only thing keeping this play possible is Marvin Hudson behind the plate which isn't enough.

[DFoster]

Yesterday's results:
6-3, 67%, +5.88 units
1-1, 50%, +1.16 units on parlays

4/22
CIN Reds -1.5 reverse RL +242 --- .5 units - WIN +1.21
STL Cardinals -1.5 reverse RL +230 --- 1 unit - WIN +2.30
STL/NYM 9.5 over +112 --- 1 unit - LOSS -1
COL/ARI under 9.5 -121 --- 2 units - WIN +1.65
PHI TT over 5 -103 --- 2 units - LOSS -2
TB/SEA over 9 -106 --- 2 units - WIN +1.89
ANA ML +100 --- 2 units - LOSS -2
TEX/TOR over 10 -106 --- 2 units - WIN +1.89
PITT 5 inn ML -103 --- 2 units - WIN +1.94

Parlay plays:
PHI ML/Over 10 --- 1 unit to win 2.18 - LOSS -1.00
ARI ML/under 9 parlay --- 1 unit to win 2.16 --- WIN +2.16

[DFoster]

Yesterday's Results:
6-6, 50%, +1.14

TOR/TEX over 9 -129 --- 2 units --- LOSS -2.00
TB/SEA 7.5 under -113 --- 2 units --- WIN +1.77
HOU/LAD 8.5 under +108 --- 1.5 units --- WIN +1.62
DET ML -137 --- 1 unit --- LOSS -1.00
DET RL +115 --- 2 units (1 added one more unit at +117, I had 1 unit at +113)- LOSS -2.00
CHW/BAL over 6 after 5 innings +106 --- 1.5 units --- WIN +1.59
KC ML +104 --- 2 units --- LOSS -2.00
KC/CLE 4.5 run 5 inning under -115 --- 1 unit --- WIN +.87
NYM +134 --- 2 units --- LOSS - 2.00
MIL/PHI over 9.5 +110 --- 2 units --- LOSS - 2.00
MIL -1.5 reverse runline +244--- 1 unit --- WIN +2.44
DET TT over 4.5 -130 --- 5 units --- WIN + 3.85 units (matched on matchbook at last second)

[DFoster]

Results:
9-5, 64.29%,+6.84

CHC -1.5 reverse ML +186 --- 1 unit --- LOSS -1.00
MIL ML -126 --- 2 units --- WIN +1.59
BOS ML -118 --- 2 units --- WIN +1.70
KC/DET 4.5 under in 5 innings --- 2 units --- LOSS -2.00
LAD -1.5 reverse RL +176 --- 1.5 units --- LOSS -1.50
SEA ML -115 --- 1 unit --- WIN +.87
SEA RL +139 --- 1 unit --- WIN +1.39
MIN -1.5 reverse RL +212 --- 1 unit --- WIN +2.12
TOR/CWS under 9 +133 --- 1 unit --- LOSS
TOR ML +119 -- 1 unit --- WIN +1.19
TOR -1.5 reverse RL +185 --- 1 unit --- WIN +1.85
SF ML -118 --- 2 units --- WIN +1.70
HOU TT under 4 -105--- 1.5 units --- WIN +1.43
BAL ML -128 --- 1.5 units --- LOSS -1.5 (nice F up Sherrill)

[DFoster]

Saturday, April 25th results:
ATL/CIN under 5 in the first 5 innings -134 --- 2 units --- LOSS -2.00
WAS/NYM under 5.5 after 5 innings +112 --- 1 unit - LOSS -1.00
STL/CHC under 10 -108 --- 2 units - PUSH
MIN -1.5 reverse RL +178 --- 1.5 units - WIN +2.67
MIN ML +120 -- 1 unit - WIN +1.20
LAD -1.5 reverse RL +198 --- 1.5 units - LOSS
FLA Marlins ML -129 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
TEX team total over 5.5 -102 --- 1 unit - WIN +.98
BAL team total over 6 +122 --- 1 unit - LOSS - 1.00
BAL/TEX 11.5 over +110 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
KC ML -110 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
SEA/ANA over 5.5 in 5 innings -103 --- 1.5 units - WIN +1.46
SEA TT over 4 -154 --- 1 unit - WIN +.65

5-7-1, -4.54

[DFoster]

Sunday, April 26th results
ATL/CIN under 9.5 -106 --- 1 unit --- LOSS -1.00
CHC ML -116 --- 1.5 units --- WIN +1.29
MIN ML +131 --- 2 units --- LOSS -2.00
MIN RL +191 --- 1 unit --- LOSS -2.00
MIN/CLE under 9 +124 --- 2 units - WIN +2.48
PIT ML +186 --- 1 unit - WIN +1.86
PIT RL +320 --- 1 unit - WIN +3.20
WAS RL +186 --- 1 unit - WIN +1.86
WAS ML +160 --- 1 unit - WIN +1.60
WAS 1st half ML +144 --- 1 unit - WIN +1.44

7-3, +6.73
74-51-2, 59.20%, +38.53

[DFoster]

TB ML +109 --- 2 units - WIN +2.18
WAS ML +165 --- 1 unit - LOSS -1.00
WAS -1.5 rev RL +244 --- 1 unit -LOSS -1.00
CHC/ARI under 8.5 -111 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
CHC ML +148 --- 1.5 units - LOSS -1.5
CHC -1.5 RL +230 --- .5 units - LOSS -.5
NYY 5 innings ML -118 --- 1.5 units - LOSS -1.50
CHC/ARI prop bet H/R/E less than 27.5 -120 --- 2 units - WIN +1.67
CIN/HOU prop bet H/R/E less than 28 -130 --- 2 units - WIN +1.54
BAL TT over 5.5 -108 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
FLA -1.5 rev RL +222 --- .75 units - LOSS -.75
FLA 5 inning ML +125 --- .75 units - LOSS -.75
MIN/TB 9 over -107 --- 1.5 units - LOSS -1.50
COL ML -109 --- 2 units - WIN +1.84

4-10 -5.27 units

Really tough night with some tough breaks in the Nationals game, the Cubs under, and the Twins over but overall, the record looks worse than it really was. I lost 6 by betting the ML and RL on the Marlins, Cubs, and Nationals...and that was bound to happen when a person bets on underdogs and mixes it with reverse runlines. With a night like this, going down 5.27 units is actually not bad. Watching these games and looking at the losses piling up, I was afraid to calculate my units as I thought it was going to be much worse. I'll be back tomorrow looking to turn it around...sorry to any of those that may have tailed me tonight.

[DFoster]

ANA ML -112 --- 2 units - WIN +1.79
TB/MIN Under 8 -115 --- 2 units - WIN +1.74
LAD/SFG under 8 -101 --- 2 units = PUSH
HOU/CIN under 8 -114 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
CLE ML -104 --- 2 units - WIN +1.92
STL ML -107 --- 1.5 units - LOSS - 1.5
SEA/CHW under 8 +106 --- 1 unit - LOSS -1.00

Yesterday's results:
3-3-1, +.95 units

Tough break on the Cardinals blowing their lead and the LAD/SF game pushing at the end...but the Indians pulled out a big win so it about evens out.

[Smith]

Doing good DF. I like the thread and read it every day. I know its hard to not take some of the underdogs with the ML's that have been out there. You win some and you lose some. But the long run is what matters. Come back today and hit it big, got some good matchups and some good dogs that may be covering. Good Luck.

[DFoster]

Wed 4/29 Results

Baltimore ML -137 --- 3 units - LOSS -3.00
SD/COL 10.5 over -108 --- 2 units - WIN +1.85
FLA Marlins ML +164 --- 1 unit - WIN +1.64
FLA Marlins rev RL +268 --- .5 units - LOSS -.5
TEX/OAK 10.5 over -108 --- 3 units - PPD
BOS ML -122 --- 2 units - WIN +1.64
PHI ML -167 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
NYM/FLA under 3.5 in first 5 innings -116 --- 1 unit - LOSS -1.00
BOS TT over 5 +104 --- 2 units - WIN +2.08
Cubs ML -112 --- 1.5 units - LOSS -1.50
PHI TT over 5.5 -102 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
SF TT over 4 -114 --- 1.5 units - WIN - +1.71
SF ML -140 --- 1.5 units - WIN +1.07

Yesterday's record:
6-6, 50%, -.01 unit

[DFoster]

Thursday 4/30 Results

TEX/OAK over 10.5 -106 --- 1.5 units - LOSS -1.50
TEX TT over 5.5 +113 --- 1.5 units - LOSS -1.50
FLA ML through 5 innins +108 --- LOSS -1.00
FLA rev RL +171 --- 1 unit - WIN +1.71
ARI ML +105 --- 1 unit - LOSS -1.00
ARI rev ML +157 --- .5 units - LOSS -.5
TB ML +105 --- 1.5 units - WIN +1.58
Cubs under 9.5 +103 --- 1.5 units - WIN +1.55
SD/LAD over 9 -123 --- 2 units - WIN +1.63
NYY TT over 5 -157 --- 2 units - WIN +1.27
KC TT over 5 -107 --- 2 units - WIN +1.87

6-4 +4.11

[DFoster]

Friday, 5/1 results

TOR -1.5 -114 --- 2 units - WIN +1.75
CHC Cubs -1.5 -116 --- 2 units - WIN +1.72
ANA ML +140 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
DET ML -156 --- 1.5 units - LOSS - 1.5
WAS first 5 inn ML -118 --- 1.5 units - LOSS -1.5
SEA ML -105 --- 1 unit - WIN +.95
CIN/PIT under 8.5 -110 --- 1.5 units - WIN +1.36
MIN -1.5 RL +122 - WIN +2.44


TOR ML, CHC ML, WAS ML --- 1 unit to win 2.36 units - LOSS

CHC RL, TOR RL, MIN ML, TB/BOS under 9, COL/SF under 8.5, WAS ML, HOU/ATL over 8 --- .5 units to win 29.50 - LOSS

Day's results:

5-3 +3.22 units
parlays: 0-2, -1.5

[DFoster]

Saturday 5/2 Results

Nats ML +115 --- 1.5 units - WIN +1.73
CHC ML -125 --- 2 units - WIN +1.60

Saturday's results
2-0, +3.33

Total: 100-77-3, 56.60%, +44.86 units at this point

[DFoster]

Out of town Sunday, 5/3. No picks made.

[laxdjock]

Keep up the great work!