DFoster 2009 MLB thread

DFoster · 04-16-09, 02:09 PM

FLA -1.5 RL +192 - 1 unit - WIN
FLA ML +123 - 1 unit - WIN
PIT -1.5 RL +172 - 1 unit - NOT LOOKING GOOD...

Probably a couple more picks to come..

DFoster · 04-16-09, 04:04 PM

Adding:

PHI ML -123 --- 2.5 units
PHI/WAS over 10 +109 --- 1 unit
TOR ML -124 --- 2 units

My write ups and explanations can be found here

DFoster · 04-17-09, 09:15 AM

FLA -1.5 RL +192 - 1 unit - WIN +1.92
FLA ML +123 - 1 unit - WIN +1.23
PIT -1.5 RL +172 - 1 unit - LOSS -1.0
PHI ML -123 --- 2.5 units - LOSS - 2.5
PHI/WAS over 10 +109 --- 1 unit - PUSH
TOR ML -124 --- 2 units - WIN + 1.61

Yesterday's results:
3-2-1, +1.26 units

Smith · 04-17-09, 09:46 AM

A plus sign is always better than a negative. Good job. I had a good day yesterday. Road teams were hot! Ill post my picks in Winners Circle shortly!

DFoster · 04-17-09, 12:11 PM

Picks thus far:

CHC -1.5 RL +121 --- 2 units
CHC/STL 9 Over -140 --- 2 units

Current Leans:
ATL ML - like for a bounce back here, though I'm a Maholm believer...the under may be the play
SD ML - Hamels at such high juice when his velocity is down 5+ MPH? I think not...
FLA ML - Love the team and have been riding them for awhile...I like Nolasco here
KC/TEX 10.5 Over - TEX kills Meche and Harrison is a wild card, both teams can score
DET/SEA 7.5 Over - Not a huge believer that the two young starters who aren't clear aces can keep this game so low

DFoster · 04-17-09, 02:49 PM

Added pick:

SEA/DET 7.5 Over +113 --- 2 units

DFoster · 04-17-09, 04:41 PM

Added plays:

TB -1.5 RL +115 --- 2 units
SEA ML -123 --- 2 units
FLA ML -118 --- 1.5 units

Parlay:
ARI ML and ARI/SF 7.5 over --- 1 unit to win 2.06

Explanations here

DFoster · 04-17-09, 09:12 PM

edit the last post: it was a .5 unit to win 2.06 on the parlay

DFoster · 04-18-09, 11:57 AM

Yesterday's record:
4-2, +2.61 units

Today's first picks

FLA RL +102 --- 1 unit
MIL ML +140 --- 2 units

DFoster · 04-18-09, 12:02 PM

Add:

FLA ML -160 --- 1 unit

Run lines have been killing me...it seems like every team wins by 1, so I'm hedging with a ML selection here.

DFoster · 04-18-09, 12:32 PM

Total picks for today...well for now:
FLA ML -160 --- 1 unit
FLA RL +102 --- 1 unit
MIL ML +167 --- 2 units
BOS/BAL 9.5 Over -102 --- 2 units
MIN ML -123 --- 2 units
SEA ML -140 --- 2 units

Small write up here

DFoster · 04-18-09, 02:21 PM

Adding:

CHC Cubs ML -129 --- 2 units

DFoster · 04-19-09, 11:48 PM

FLA ML -160 --- 1 unit - WIN +.625
FLA RL +102 --- 1 unit - WIN +1.02
MIL ML +167 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
BOS/BAL 9.5 Over -102 --- 2 units - WIN +1.96
MIN ML -123 --- 2 units - WIN +1.63
SEA ML -140 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
CHC Cubs ML -129 --- 2 units - WIN +1.55

Yesterday's record:

5-2, +2.875 units

I was gone all day today and didn't have time to look or post picks. I will be back tomorrow for those who check and/or follow what I'm doing.

blowseq · 04-20-09, 06:16 AM

ScreaminPain · 04-20-09, 11:28 AM

Hope you had a nice day off !
....always look for your action, Foster!

Smith · 04-20-09, 12:36 PM

Took the weekend off myself! Good luck today!

DFoster · 04-20-09, 12:52 PM

I missed the Boston game. I put in my bet about 2 seconds too late. I was in a meeting at work and didn't get out in time. I had the RL all set and ready and missed it. Oh well. I posted it on my blog as I was trying to bet on the game and was too late.

So here are my current selections of the day and as always, more explanations and write ups at my blog:

COL ML +112 --- 2 units
ATL ML -132 --- 2 units
FLA ML -112 --- 2 units
COL/ARI 10.5 over -108 --- 2 units
ATL/WAS under 4.5 in first 5 innings -108 --- 2 units

Capping more games throughout the day but here are some current leans:
PHI/SD over 10
FLA/PIT over 9.5
OAK +183 --- really? +183? I don't like Eveland and lean toward a Yankee win here but this is too high for a no play I think

DFoster · 04-20-09, 02:19 PM

I'd venture to guess my thread gets the least amount of comments of all the "MLB" threads...curious as to why. I'm assuming it's because of my small amount of posts.

I always am interested in hearing any feedback, good or bad.

G's pks · 04-20-09, 03:58 PM

My feedback and first time visiting your thread...is>>>>the problem is you are winning! You are dealing with degenerate losers here and it is hard for them to understand...sorry! G.

DFoster · 04-20-09, 04:53 PM

Originally posted by G's pks

My feedback and first time visiting your thread...is>>>>the problem is you are winning! You are dealing with degenerate losers here and it is hard for them to understand...sorry! G.

Ha, well thanks...I guess

I plan to keep it going all season...though I know that's everyone's plan

SportsChic · 04-20-09, 05:18 PM

Hey foster...Im looking for your 'EXPERT ADVICE' tonight. Your profit is looking good babe. I need a good start tonight since I had a nice break. Im looking to do a parlay..3 teamer. Would you recommend Col, Atl, and Florida? Or do you think your totals plays are stronger sexy?

DFoster · 04-20-09, 05:27 PM

I like all three of those games quite a bit.

I'd say those are the three best bets, though the ATL/WAS under looks good but more unpredictable with Zimmerman debuting.

SportsChic · 04-20-09, 05:31 PM

I may just do a 3 teamer on those games...out of the three though, which two are your strongest?

DFoster · 04-20-09, 05:37 PM

ATL and COL I'd say. Atlanta is definitely my strongest of them all.

The Rockies are going with a hot Marquis, though he should get hit harder today than he has in his previous outings if only due to the weather and the overall environment that Arizona provides. I think Garland is trash and should keep it going tonight. So for those reasons, I'm leaning with the Rockies...however FLA is on fire and at a solid price. I don't trust Andrew Miller but Ohlendorf is far from stellar. I don't know what to expect with that game but am riding the Marlin train until it derails.

SportsChic · 04-20-09, 05:42 PM

Im going with the 3 teamer...I definitely dont like Ohlendorf, as I expect what happens to him tonight will be similar to what just happened to Duke. I love Atlanta and would have played them myself tonight. I was a bit hesitant on the Rockies game, but Ill ride with it..

3 teamer
Col
Atl
Fl

1.22 units to win 6.20 units

DFoster · 04-20-09, 05:51 PM

Originally posted by SportsChic

Im going with the 3 teamer...I definitely dont like Ohlendorf, as I expect what happens to him tonight will be similar to what just happened to Duke. I love Atlanta and would have played them myself tonight. I was a bit hesitant on the Rockies game, but Ill ride with it..

3 teamer
Col
Atl
Fl

1.22 units to win 6.20 units

Good luck...for both of us

DFoster · 04-20-09, 08:31 PM

So Andrew Miller threw 100 pitches tonight for a total of 49 strikes. Unreal. I know Miller is a joke but that's something I've never seen.

The Florida pitching in this game has been terrible. I'm glad the Braves game has started....

DFoster · 04-20-09, 08:40 PM

The strike zone in the Braves game is HUGE...I can't see how either team will score runs if both pitchers can consistently hit the glove 6"-8" off of the black. It looks amazing for those who took the unders.

DFoster · 04-21-09, 09:09 AM

COL ML +112 --- 2 units --- LOSS -2
ATL ML -132 --- 2 units --- LOSS -2
FLA ML -112 --- 2 units --- LOSS -2
COL/ARI 10.5 over -108 --- 2 units --- LOSS -2
ATL/WAS under 4.5 in first 5 innings -108 --- 2 units --- WIN +1.85

Yesterday's posted plays: 1-4. -6.15 units

An absolute dismal day yesterday. I was really confident on all picks outside of the FLA game (which I had no trust in Miller but same when for Ohlendorf), which I have been riding for their 7 game streak up until last night. Watching the Colorado/Arizona game was pretty tough. I have no idea how Jon Garland shut down what I would normally consider a decent offense. Had he had even a decent outing instead of a great one, my over would have cashed. Oh well, these nights happen occasionally, I just hope to limit them obviously. I'll be capping games throughout the day.

DFoster · 04-21-09, 03:09 PM

I have posted most of my picks with write ups earlier today here but didn't have time to post them here...

KC ML +179 --- 2 units
DET Tigers ML +103 ---1 unit, DET -1.5 RL +169 --- 1 unit
COL Rockies ML +114 --- 1 unit, COL -1.5 RL +169 --- 1 unit
MIN ML +154 --- 1.5 units
WAS ML +115 --- 1.5 units
TEX Rangers +199 --- 2 units
BAL Orioles ML -103 --- 2 units

Leans so far, Matchbook just added team totals with no action yet...

PIT/FLA over 5 in 5 inn - Karstens vs Sanchez, I like Sanchez but he is set to give up a couple of runs and Karstens is far from solid

LAD/HOU over 5 in 5 inn - Kershaw was amazing last outing but tends to have some control issues as young pitchers do...and I still say Russ Ortiz is terrible

FLA Marlins @ PIT Pirates - I think they get back on track here against PIT with Karstens

KC/CLE under 10

CHC TT over 4

FLA TT over 4.5

SportsChic · 04-21-09, 03:13 PM

Lets have a good night tonight foster! gl babe

DFoster · 04-21-09, 03:17 PM

Originally posted by SportsChic

Lets have a good night tonight foster! gl babe

That's the plan, thanks! I'm still capping some games that didn't initially stick out (OAK/NYY, MIL/PHI, LAD/HOU, etc) so I may still add some plays..

ertl09 · 04-21-09, 03:31 PM

To add to your comment about people not visiting , maybe one thing is to start a new thread and post your record at the top to get attention. Start one everday or one for a week. So far so good, keep up the good work, had a lot of the same picks today so best of luck today!

DFoster · 04-21-09, 03:59 PM

Originally posted by ertl09

To add to your comment about people not visiting , maybe one thing is to start a new thread and post your record at the top to get attention. Start one everday or one for a week. So far so good, keep up the good work, had a lot of the same picks today so best of luck today!

I did actually think about doing that but I like being able to track my progress as I'm up and down. I guess since I'm doing that on my blog currently, having a daily thread may make the most sense.

TodaysAction · 04-21-09, 04:12 PM

Originally posted by DFoster

COL ML +112 --- 2 units --- LOSS -2
ATL ML -132 --- 2 units --- LOSS -2
FLA ML -112 --- 2 units --- LOSS -2
COL/ARI 10.5 over -108 --- 2 units --- LOSS -2
ATL/WAS under 4.5 in first 5 innings -108 --- 2 units --- WIN +1.85

Yesterday's posted plays: 1-4. -6.15 units

An absolute dismal day yesterday. I was really confident on all picks outside of the FLA game (which I had no trust in Miller but same when for Ohlendorf), which I have been riding for their 7 game streak up until last night. Watching the Colorado/Arizona game was pretty tough. I have no idea how Jon Garland shut down what I would normally consider a decent offense. Had he had even a decent outing instead of a great one, my over would have cashed. Oh well, these nights happen occasionally, I just hope to limit them obviously. I'll be capping games throughout the day.

Something to remember, nobody wins everyday and nobody loses everyday. If what you do normally works, stick with it as it will turn out the profits for you. If not, come up with another selection process AFTER backtesting it several seasons. Also, try to remind yourself to think "big picture" (season) and not focus on a bad day/week/month. So you stubbed your toe, put a bandaid on it and move forward. Good luck with your selections tonight.