DFoster 2009 MLB thread

[DFoster]

21-14 +26.24 units currently in posted spring training plays. I've decided to just use one thread from here on out. It should make it easier to post plays and determine my ups and downs. I plan on keeping this going all year but I guess we'll just see how I do.

I'll be posting any ST games for today in an hour or so.

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2009 ST: 21-14, 60% WR, +26.24 units

[DFoster]

First bet of the day:

NYM -108 over the stl cardinals - 3 units
PIT +116 vs BOS - 1 unit Beckett vs Maholm. BOS has backups starting vs opening PIT lineup
TOR/WAS 9.5 Under -105 - 1 unit WAS backups vs an ace in Halladay
NYM/STL 10.5 Under -105 - 2 units Johan vs. Lohse here should be a relatively low scoring game
CIN/HOU 10.5 under -105 - 1 unit Bailey/Oswalt against 2 lineups filled with backups and minor leaguers

Alot of small plays today. I love the unders here but playing the under in spring training is tough, thus I never play over 2 units on an under.

[DFoster]

Adding

DET/ATL 10.5 Under +105 - 2 units here

Detroit has played under in 6 of the last 7. Atlanta has played under in 6 of last 8. With Glavine and Verlander throwing, both offenses should struggle some as both have thrown well in ST.

[DFoster]

Alot of plays I really like today. I truly hate spring training unders but went with 4 today...about 4 more than I usually like but these matchups stood out as great value compared to others today. If there's even one person remotely tailing me currently, good luck. Hopefully we add some units to add to a couple of afternoon/evening games.

[DFoster]

In retrospect I shouldnt have added the ATL play as they are shelling Verlander. Unders in general are looking unlikely as early runs are being put up in most games today. Verlander must be throwing beach balls.

[DFoster]

Adding:

Texas +154

The Angels are starting a strong lineup of minor leaguers with a couple of exceptions. Most of their starters aren't even at the stadium today. With two below average guys throwing, it should be a high scoring game (14 run over/under shows that). With Texas sporting their opening day lineup, I'll take my chances and run with them at +154.

[BobHarvey]

Adding:

Texas +154

The Angels are starting a strong lineup of minor leaguers with a couple of exceptions. Most of their starters aren't even at the stadium today. With two below average guys throwing, it should be a high scoring game (14 run over/under shows that). With Texas sporting their opening day lineup, I'll take my chances and run with them at +154.

Good play. I got the Rangers at +155. Not only are the Angel minor leaguers going to play I wouldn't be surprised to see a few minor leaguers on the mound today.

GL.

[DFoster]

Adding:
SD +103 over CWS - 2 units

[DFoster]

NYM -108 over the stl cardinals - 3 units - WIN +2.78
PIT +116 vs BOS - 1 unit - LOSS
TOR/WAS 9.5 Under -105 - 1 unit - LOSS
NYM/STL 10.5 Under -105 - 2 units - WIN +1.90
CIN/HOU 10.5 under -105 - 1 unit - WIN +.95
DET/ATL 10.5 Under +105 - 2 units - LOSS

So far today: 3-3 +1.63 units
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24-17, 58.53%, +27.87 units

[DFoster]

SD +103 over CWS - 2 units --- WIN +2.06
Texas +154 over ANA - 2 units --- WIN +3.08

Finished the day: 5-3 +6.77 units
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26-17, 60.47%, +33.01 units in '09 ST

[DFoster]

Thursday Picks...

WAS +146 over PHI - 2 units
Olsen vs. Moyer

Both opening day lineups are starting, making this a tough matchup for the Nationals. Moyer was shelled in his last inning, 7ER in 5IP. Olsen has been solid in his last 3 outings. The Phillies are 2-5 in their last 7 games, the Nationals are 4-4 in their last 8. While this will be a tough game for the nationals, at +146, I'm taking my chances as I think this is an even money type game.

Other plays possibly coming.

[DFoster]

BOS -119 over MIN - 2 units
Penny vs Liriano

I really like Liriano and think he's due for a solid outing, but with the Sox starting their opening day lineup against a mix of Twins, I see nice value here. Penny has been solid all spring and hopefully that should continue today.

[DFoster]

TOR +110 over DET - 1 unit

I like Toronto here. Two young, small name starters going. While Toronto has struggled in the last week, they have some bats coming alive. I see the offense continuing today and the Jays taking the game 7-5 or so.

[DFoster]

FLA -102 over STL - 2 units
Johnson vs. Wellemeyer

[DFoster]

1 unit parlay to profit 4.1 units

NYM -177, FLA -102, BSOX -119

[DFoster]

Afternoon plays:

COL +108 over ARI - 3 units
close to opening day lineup vs back ups, 2 bad pitchers starting

MIL -132 over CHW - 2 units
opening day lineup for MIL vs backups, 2 decent starters in Floyd and Suppan

KC +127 over TEX - 2 units
2 terrible starters here, both solid lineups = coin flip, I'll take the odds here with KC winning games throughout spring training and being one of the top teams thus far

[DFoster]

Wow, first set of games were looking great...a big swing in the last inning for every pick.

[DFoster]

FLA -102 over STL - 2 units - LOSS

WAS +146 over PHI - 2 units - WIN

BOS -119 over MIN - 2 units - LOSS

TOR +110 over DET - 1 unit - LOSS

NYM -177, FLA -102, BSOX -119 par 1 UNIT - LOSS

A rough start to the day. Eh, it happens.

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27-22, 55.10%, +29.93 units in '09 ST

[DFoster]

ANA -132 over LAD - 5 units

SF -153/ANA -132 parlay - 1 unit to win 2 units

[DFoster]

ANA - LOSS
1 unit PARLAY - LOSS
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27-24, 52.94%, +23.93 units in '09 ST

Rough day yesterday...had some tough breaks.

[SportsChic]

Foster, you have anything today? Like the 3pm game?

[DFoster]

Sorry...I haven't had too much time to take a look today. I may give a look at the evening games. Do you see anything you like?

[DFoster]

Not a huge fan of any current plays.

.5 unit parlay to win 3.32 units

CHC, ANA, ATL

[DFoster]

.5 unit parlay to win 3.32 units

CHC, ANA, ATL - LOSS (CHC Lost to NYY)

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27-25, 51.92%, +23.43 units in '09 ST

[SportsChic]

What do you got for today foster? I have early leans on Chicago, Philly, and Boston....let me know what you think. Harden, Hamels, and Matsusaka all on the mound

[DFoster]

Today's pick

BOS -110 over NYM - 2 units

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Head to my blog for detailed reasoning

[SportsChic]

Good luck..Im on them as well today babe

[DFoster]

Cubs price has jumped to +135. The extra push up makes this too good of a price to leave on the table. The Cubs faired very well against lefties last year and hopefully they can send Pettitte packing early. If Harden's velocity back up, close to last year's, they have a great chance of taking this game.

CHC +135 - 2 units

[DFoster]

BOS -110 2 units - WIN
CHC +135 2 units - LOSS
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28-26, 51.85%, +23.43 units in spring training games

[DFoster]

Plays for 4/5 ----
Atlanta +115 ---- 2 units
Atlanta -145 after 4.5 ---- 1 unit
Total H/R/E 2.5 in 1st inning over -115 ---- 1 unit

[DFoster]

Atlanta +115 ---- 2 units - WIN 2.3
Atlanta -145 after 4.5 ---- 1 unit - WIN .69
Total H/R/E 2.5 in 1st inning over -115 ---- 1 unit - WIN .87
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3-0, 100%, +3.86 units
31-26, 54.39%, +27.29 units including spring training

[DFoster]

Analysis of the following games on my blog:

NYM @ CIN
TB @ BOS
PIT @ STL
CHC @ HOU

Initial leans:
NYM
BOS
STL/PIT under
CHC/HOU - TBD

[Hawk007]

Impressive blog Foster. You must take this serious......

GL!

[DFoster]

Impressive blog Foster. You must take this serious......

GL!

Thanks for the compliment. I just started the thing and plan to keep it going all year. I'm hoping to get a small following if at all possible. Good luck this year!

[SportsChic]

I was hoping you could comment on my question regarding the Reds and Mets Run Line bet. I am thinking of putting a bet in for the Reds +1.5 runs due to my belief that the line seems a bit odd. It currently has the Mets run line at a +105 and the Reds at -125. With ace Santana on the mound with a more potent offense behind him, wouldnt you think that this should be a bit higher? Im thinking bookies want the public to pound the mets runline only to have this stay a close game. Can you please give me your thoughts on this? Thank you!