Fade the Yankees MLB Experiment

[Rich Boy]

Recap
Game 13: 04/19/2009

CLE - Pavano [+215 Pinny]
NYY - Burnett

Risking 1 unit to win 2.15 units

YTD: 6-7 [46%] [+1.31 units]

[G's pks]

RE: Nationals

Fading the Yankees is much more profitable than fading the Nationals.

explain...he is up 1 unit fading the yankees...the nats are 1-10...this statement at this point makes no sense!

[Rich Boy]

I think he meant long term.

[j0hnnyv]

you will get great odds when playing against the yankees. you will have to lay a big number playing against the nationals...

[G's pks]

that is true...but as of now...fading the nats would have been better....in the long run yes...the opposite... Somewhere along the line the nats are going to win some games according to Vegas...

[Rich Boy]

Game 14: 04/21/2009


Risking 1 unit to win 1.89 units

OAK - Eveland [+189 MB]
NYY - Pettitte

YTD: 6-7 [46%] [+1.31 units]

[Rich Boy]

Recap
Game 14: 04/21/2009


Risking 1 unit to win 1.89 units

OAK - Eveland [+189 MB]
NYY - Pettitte

YTD: 6-8 [42.8%] [+0.31 units]

[yisman]

[/u][/b]


explain...he is up 1 unit fading the yankees...the nats are 1-10...this statement at this point makes no sense!

I said much more profitable.

IOW, as a strategy. Yeah, if you faded the Nationals during a bad stretch like now, you'd make money, but if you started fading them when that poster commented, I bet you'd lose money this season.

" its looking good so far but out of coursity.. y does no one fad bad teams like the nationals or someone of that nature?"

That was on April 14. I don't have the lines, but I'd wager anyone fading the Nationals from April 14 until the end would end up in the red. Atlanta closed Tuesday at -139 on the road with a bad pitcher starting. Why? Because the prevalent thought is to fade the Nationals because they suck. The market will overplay that angle. Nationals will win 65 or 70 games and hurt anyone who fades them all summer long.


Monday: Atlanta -170, loss
Tuesday: Atlanta -139, loss

[yisman]

that is true...but as of now...fading the nats would have been better.

no one cares. Really. The point is not to look at short stretches and see which teams had a good two weeks and which teams had a bad two weeks. We're talking about a season-long strategy of fading a single team. If you fade the Nationals all season, you'll lose money. Bank on it.

Hey, anyone who bet the Marlins every game this season would be up a bunch, but would betting the Marlins the rest of the season be profitable? I wouldn't be so sure.

Even Nicky could tell you that had you bet Florida and Toronto every single game this season, you'd be up a good bit and had you bet Tampa Bay and the Angels every game this season you'd be down a good bit.

[reno cool]

I said much more profitable.

IOW, as a strategy. Yeah, if you faded the Nationals during a bad stretch like now, you'd make money, but if you started fading them when that poster commented, I bet you'd lose money this season.

" its looking good so far but out of coursity.. y does no one fad bad teams like the nationals or someone of that nature?"

That was on April 14. I don't have the lines, but I'd wager anyone fading the Nationals from April 14 until the end would end up in the red. Atlanta closed Tuesday at -139 on the road with a bad pitcher starting. Why? Because the prevalent thought is to fade the Nationals because they suck. The market will overplay that angle. Nationals will win 65 or 70 games and hurt anyone who fades them all summer long.


Monday: Atlanta -170, loss
Tuesday: Atlanta -139, loss

yes that's a good point. Books love people who use statistically irrelevant stats. Betting against these things is in fact a viable handicapping method.

[i.spinal]

ive been following this system and like what ive seen. im still taking the yankees today.

[Rich Boy]

Game 15: 04/22/2009


Risking 1 unit to win 2.31 units

OAK - Anderson [+231 MB]
NYY - Sabathia

YTD: 6-8 [42.8%] [+0.31 units]

[Rich Boy]

Recap
Game 15: 04/22/2009


Risking 1 unit to win 2.31 units

OAK - Anderson [+231 MB]
NYY - Sabathia

YTD: 6-9 [40%] [-0.69 units]


Yankees starting to heat up

[G's pks]

just think and they are barely above .500 and you are in the red, wait till they are 20 games above...

[Tsoprano]

Go yankee$$$$$

[yisman]

I doubt this will end up too much in the red. Yankees hot streaks will burn you, of course. That's true with any team.

[Rich Boy]

just think and they are barely above .500 and you are in the red, wait till they are 20 games above...

They are actually 60% right now, and 20 games above .500 is meaningless (30-10 is very different than 120-100)

[Boner_18]

Rich, did you do any back testing with this?

Or for that matter does anyone have any data? How many units up or down have the past couple seasons yielded?

[Boner_18]

You playing this one tonight Rich?

[G's pks]

They are actually 60% right now, and 20 games above .500 is meaningless (30-10 is very different than 120-100)

My thought...running this thread for the full year will be meaningless...unless the yanks are a real flop expect to be up or down I will guess 5-10 units... Now add an injury or two to the pitching staff and maybe 15 units..in the green. GL though..fun to watch...but guessing you will be bouncing back and forth -5 to +5 area...

[Rich Boy]

Ya, my bad guys...

Game 15: 04/24/2009

Risking 1.41 units to win 1 units

NYY - Chamberlain
BOS - Lester [-141 Pinny]

YTD: 6-8 [42.8%] [+0.31 units]

[Rich Boy]

Recap
Game 15: 04/24/2009

Risking 1.41 units to win 1 units

NYY - Chamberlain
BOS - Lester [-141 Pinny]

YTD: 7-8 [46%] [+1.31 units]

[Casperwaits]

Red Sox 1 Yankees 0

[Tsoprano]

What a choke job caused by the bullpen today

Even Rivera with slop tonight

[Rich Boy]

Game 16: 04/25/2009

Risking 1.36 units to win 1 units

NYY - Burnett
BOS - Beckett [-136 Pinny]

YTD: 7-8 [46%] [+1.31 units]

[Rich Boy]

Recap
Game 16: 04/25/2009

Risking 1.36 units to win 1 units

NYY - Burnett
BOS - Beckett [-136 Pinny]

YTD: 8-8 [50%] [+2.31 units]

Thanks Yanks.

[Rich Boy]

Game 17: 04/26/2009

Risking 1.20 units to win 1 units

NYY - Pettitte
BOS - Masterson [-120 Pinny]

YTD: 8-8 [50%] [+2.31 units]

[Tsoprano]

Another W fading these pinstripe fukks

[Rich Boy]

Recap
Game 17: 04/26/2009

Risking 1.20 units to win 1 units

NYY - Pettitte
BOS - Masterson [-120 Pinny]

YTD: 9-8 [52.9%] [+3.31 units]

[Rich Boy]

Game 18: 04/27/2009

Risking 1 unit to win 1.24 units

NYY - Sabathia
DET - Verlander [+124 Pinny]

YTD: 9-8 [52.9%] [+3.31 units]

[Tsoprano]

I really should be doing this as well

[Slanina]

I'm going to try something with them. When you are up 3+ units I'll bet on them. When you are down 3+ units I'll bet against them. I'll keep betting one unit until it's back to even. Then stop until it reaches 3 either way and resume betting accordingly. At the end of the season I will see where it stands compared to just fading them every single game. Since they are a good team I can't imagine the swings going more than 5 units each way. So my bet will be on the yanks tomorrow.

[Rich Boy]

the Yankees are overpriced everyday.

[Slanina]

I'm going to try something with them. When you are up 3+ units I'll bet on them. When you are down 3+ units I'll bet against them. I'll keep betting one unit until it's back to even. Then stop until it reaches 3 either way and resume betting accordingly. At the end of the season I will see where it stands compared to just fading them every single game. Since they are a good team I can't imagine the swings going more than 5 units each way. So my bet will be on the yanks tomorrow.

I'm not afraid to quote myself! Yeah, with some more thought into this. I'm not doing it lol. I'm not paying those prices when I have to bet on them.

[Rich Boy]

There are very few ways to profit in this business, this is one of them.