Fade the Yankees MLB Experiment

Unitage · 03-30-09, 04:36 AM

Im guessing youll end up about +6 units. GL.

cocknocker · 03-31-09, 12:27 AM

It would be best to fade them when they are -150 or more instead of ALL their games. Fade them when they are big favorites

austintx05 · 03-31-09, 12:35 AM

nothing new, but gl

ryanspeer2001 · 03-31-09, 01:08 AM

Originally posted by Unitage

Im guessing youll end up about +6 units. GL.

This is a pretty fair number.

Since you will be making 162 bets being up 6 units is a decent pull for an experiment.

Just expect some long stretches of disapointment where you will be tempted to bump your units up. DO NOT!

jjgold · 03-31-09, 05:00 AM

I think you will come out ahead. They Yanks are overrated and will be over priced.

GL Pal

LT Profits · 03-31-09, 06:28 AM

Originally posted by cocknocker

It would be best to fade them when they are -150 or more instead of ALL their games. Fade them when they are big favorites

I hear what you are saying, but the fact is the Yankees are overvalued almost all the time. Even when they are "only" -120, they would probably be a dog if they were any other team.

If I were to do an experiment like this, I would play against the Yankees any time they are favored at any price. This is not to say the Yankees NEVER have value, especially if more people have the mindset of this thread. But for experimentation purposes, I would always want + odds on their opponent.

Jacey · 03-31-09, 09:52 PM

I'm a Red Sox fan, but I don't know how much value you'll get betting on the Sox vs the Yanks. I considered doing something like this last year

Rich Boy · 03-31-09, 10:13 PM

Its been profitable the last 4 seasons, I don't see that changing this season.

Jacey · 03-31-09, 11:13 PM

Originally posted by Rich Boy

Its been profitable the last 4 seasons, I don't see that changing this season.

I checked, the last time the Yankees were + units was when they won 107 games in a season. Don't quite see that this year.

MJFtheGenius · 03-31-09, 11:25 PM

I don't think you can go broke doing this.

Will be interesting

Crayzee · 04-01-09, 11:41 AM

you know what might really be good-

fade both ny teams when favored

pavyracer · 04-01-09, 11:54 AM

I hit 25-30 +200 or better Yankee heavy chalk fades last year. This is the same as hitting 90 Yankee heavy chalks.

element1286 · 04-01-09, 12:11 PM

I like to fade bad defensive teams, and the Yanks would certainly qualify.

Rich Boy · 04-04-09, 01:49 AM

Game 1: 04/06/2009

NYY - C Sabathia
BAL - J Guthrie [+174 Pinnacle]

Risking 1 unit to win 1.74 units

YTD: 0-0 [0%] [0 units]

Jacey · 04-04-09, 11:40 AM

Think that may get bet even further in your favor Rich Boy?

Rich Boy · 04-06-09, 07:15 PM

Recap
Game 1: 04/06/2009

NYY - C Sabathia
BAL - J Guthrie [+174 Pinnacle]

Risking 1 unit to win 1.74 units

YTD: 1-0 [100%] [+1.74 units]

Tsoprano · 04-06-09, 07:24 PM

so far so good

Rich Boy · 04-08-09, 10:54 AM

Game 2: 04/08/2009

NYY - C Wang
BAL - K Uehara +150 [Pinnacle]

Risking 1 unit to win 1.5 units

YTD: 1-0 [100%] [+1.74 units]

james4512 · 04-08-09, 11:14 AM

i would probably just fade the yankees until july, yankees always finish strong

LT Profits · 04-08-09, 12:23 PM

A lot of people are doing the same today, O's took a lot of money.

mathdotcom · 04-08-09, 12:34 PM

If you had risked $1 betting against the Yankees over the past 10 years, you would have made just more than $1. Would have lost $20 betting the Yankees.

Good luck beating the bookmaker this year

Rich Boy · 04-09-09, 12:27 AM

Recap
Game 2: 04/08/2009

NYY - C Wang
BAL - K Uehara +150 [Pinnacle]

Risking 1 unit to win 1.5 units

YTD: 2-0 [100%] [+3.24 units]

Enforcer_23 · 04-09-09, 12:40 AM

Pretty funny, but i guess its not too surprising that it may work

Tsoprano · 04-09-09, 12:55 AM

another solid win for Yankee faders

Rich Boy · 04-09-09, 12:10 PM

Game 3: 04/09/2009

NYY - A Burnett
BAL - A Simon [+183 Pinnacle]

Risking 1 unit to win 1.83 units

YTD: 2-0 [100%] [+3.24 units]

Rich Boy · 04-09-09, 05:57 PM

Recap
Game 3: 04/09/2009

NYY - A Burnett
BAL - A Simon [+183 Pinnacle]

Risking 1 unit to win 1.83 units

YTD: 2-1 [66.6%] [+2.24 units]

Rich Boy · 04-10-09, 11:24 AM

Game 4: 04/10/2009

NYY - A Pettitte
BAL - S Ponson [+153 MB]

Risking 1 unit to win 1.53 units

YTD: 2-1 [66.6%] [+2.24 units]

pico · 04-10-09, 11:28 AM

i like kc today. ponson vs his old team. kc is better this year. yankees not so good on the road. plus money for home team. i like the odds.

Rich Boy · 04-11-09, 10:26 AM

Recap
Game 4: 04/10/2009

NYY - A Pettitte
BAL - S Ponson [+153 MB]

Risking 1 unit to win 1.53 units

YTD: 2-2 [50%] [+1.24 units]

Rich Boy · 04-11-09, 10:28 AM

Game 5: 04/11/2009

NYY - Sabathia
KC - Ramirez [+185 MB]

Risking 1 unit to win 1.85 units

YTD: 2-2 [50%] [+1.24 units]

pico · 04-11-09, 10:32 AM

kc gotta win one of those games

pbateman · 04-11-09, 10:33 AM

No way in hell Sabathia and the Yanks lose today. Horacio Ramirez is a SCRUB.

Machine Choice · 04-11-09, 10:48 AM

Sabbathia lost his last two games versus KC. He looked like garbage in his first start. No pressure on Ramirez because he is expected to lose this. He'll just go out there and do his thing. The pressure is on CC big time becuase of the contract expectations. I think KC has a better than 40% chance of pulling this one, thus there is supreme value in this line.

Rich Boy · 04-11-09, 10:31 PM

Recap
Game 5: 04/11/2009

NYY - Sabathia
KC - Ramirez [+185 MB]

Risking 1 unit to win 1.85 units

YTD: 2-3 [40%] [+0.24 units]