MLB FADE THE PUBLIC 5-GAME CHASE (risk .0075% of bankroll, then 75% of loss martingal

[HappyKane]

Locking in:

CHASE 32, 1st of 5
Indians -120
$63 to win $52.50

I really love the Indians tonight. Put a 'lil extra money from my pocket as well as the regular 5-chase bet.

[Plaza23]

This system is awesome. Thank you so much for posting it!

[fitguy67]

I like your picks and youve made a ton betting small amounts... Your not 30-0 though, im confused why you put that up

just to follow this up...

the straight-up thread record is 31-23 = 57.41% of 54 games played with average price of about +108

any way you slice it...the record is outstanding thus far

[HappyKane]

1-1 on Friday brings the YTD record to 31-0. Up $1,181.41.

Here is what we're looking at for Saturday, early game and nothing else:

Game 1
WAS % G. Gonzalez B-
CHC % D. Beeler C-

Gio is 0-4 in day games with a WHIP of 1.94 and ERA of 8.27.

[HappyKane]

Remember guys, start out small if you're going to chase.

Most of these picks are on unpopular underdogs so they're supposed to lose.

I start out with less than 1% of my bankroll so if a pick loses, it doesn't even phase me. I just semi-double-up on the next game having faith in the system that it'll find winners on any given day.

[HappyKane]

Locking in the early play for Saturday, June 28th:

CHASE 32, 2nd of 5
Cubs +139 Game 1
$109 to win $151.51

[HappyKane]

0-1 on Saturday brings the YTD record to 31-0. Up $1,072.41.

Lets see what we got for Sunday:

CWS 18% J. Quintana C-
TOR 82% M. Buehrle A

[HappyKane]

Locking in:

CHASE 32, 3rd of 5
White Sox +123
$190 to win $233.70

[HappyKane]

1-0 on Sunday brings the YTD record to 32-0. Up $1,305.41.

There will be no "fade the public" play(s) for Monday, June 30.

C'yall Tuesday.

[HappyKane]

Now that i get a day off i will dabble a bit about this "mojo" system of mine and take a poll.

I developed this "mojo" rating system in the summer of 2006. Before 2006 i only used biorhythms to complement fundamental handicapping. I realized that even though most sporting events are all skilled based there are some luck involved.

One week Eli Manning looks like a legitimate Pro Bowler and the next week he'll throw 5 interceptions -- a few of those might not be his faut; its just how the ball rolls. Even the most skilled of all talents like LeBron James and Kobe Bryant will have off days.

Some very lucky guy, with the stars aligned in his favor, will step up to a craps table and roll for 1 hour. It happens. Just ask any dealer or floor person -- they've seen it all.

A light bulb went on while i was pacing the grounds of Mandalay Bay in the summer of 2006. A new concept to add to my arsenal of esoteric sports handicapping was born. The beginning of the "mojo" system -- skill + luckiness or unluckiness.

It wasn't until 2011 and thanks to the usefulness of Google Docs (now called Google Drive) i began compiling spreadsheets and keeping track of what works and in certain parameters. For MLB, this is the 4th season i have been making these daily spreadsheets. And for the past 3 years i have been trying to develop a system, within a system; toying around with many incarnations of the baseball systems you see today in the sports forums. May 20, 2014 is the debut of my 5-Game Fade the Public Chase System. A system where i am betting on unpopular teams/pitchers against teams/pitchers where everyone [and their mother] is unloading on. A system where i am siding with the books on a season-long basis. Should be profitable, right?

Now that the system is 32-0 here are a few questions i will take a poll with:

Do you like or do not like the system because

A) There are no forced plays; its all systemized. Some days there will be 1-4 plays and some days there are no plays. This is also true for the time of day that the games are played. There is one early Cubs home game on Friday -- lets force a play for some action. There is only one Sunday night game -- lets force a play for some action. There is no forced action from my system. There have never been a day i post 5-10 plays -- could be good or bad.

B) There are not enough plays. See above. This is the 29th day of the system and there have only been about 50 or so qualified plays. (Which by the way is hitting around 56% with an average price of +110. So even if you don't chase, its still a profitable system.) There have never been a day i post 5-10 plays -- could be good or bad depending on how you look at it.

C) At what point can this be called a legitimate [chase] system? Now at 32-0? At 50-0? At 100-0? At what ever loss and profit is tallied at the end of the season? 5 years down the road?

D) Do some of you really hate one continuous season-long threads? Really?

E) Do some of you loathe any kind of "chase" system? Is it because you have been burned in the past or you think "chasing" is dumb in general?

[mrk77]

I like season long threads, I like chase systems even though I've been burnt in the past (I'm a little wiser with the wagers now), there's no such thing as not enough plays for me, and a system is legitimate if it shows a profit no matter how big at the end of the season.

[CappyT]

Hello HappyKane,
I've been following you since mid June because I really like your idea. I don't mind days like today where there are no qualified plays, I like the no forced action aspect. I feel there are plenty of plays, but that's just my opinion.
Regarding the continuous season-long thread, I don't know why anyone would hate it, especially for a "chase" system. Speaking of chase systems, it's the only method I use. I know there are a lot of people who don't like it, but imo it just requires good money management and a good system of course.
Really appreciate the effort you put into it and a big thank you for sharing.

[keel44]

If it is profiting at a flat bet level, why chase? Maybe a less risky chase is in order.

[HappyKane]

Here is what we're looking at for Tuesday, July 1:

MIN 80% J. Shields B-
KC 20% R. Nolasco B

SEA 75% H. Iwakuma C
HOU 25% J. Cosart C+

Same business as usual. Betting on pitchers and teams that doesn't have much a chance.

[HappyKane]

2 for Tuesday:

CHASE 33, 1st of 5
Twins +112
$62 to win $69.44

CHASE 34, 1st of 5
Astros +120
$62 to win $74.40

[HappyKane]

1-1 on Tuesday brings the YTD record to 33-0. Up $1,313.55.

A few possible qualifiers for Wednesday:

KC 78% J. Vargas C-/D-
MIN 22% K. Correia C-

CIN 87% J. Cueto B-
SD 13% T. Ross C-

TEX 28% M. Mikolas B-
BAL 72% C. Tillman B+

PHI 65% C. Hamels C-
MIA 35% T. Koehler C-

STL 75% A. Wainwright B
SF 25% R. Vogelsong C-

Possible plays on the Twins, Padres, Rangers, Marlins, and Giants.

[HappyKane]

Locking in:

CHASE 34, 2nd of 5
Twins +128
$109 to win $139.52

[HappyKane]

Locking in:

CHASE 35, 1st of 5
Padres +104
$60 to win $62.40

[HappyKane]

Don't like this play but got to have faith in the system.

Locking in:

CHASE 34, 3rd of 5
Rangers +130
$191 to win $248.30

[HappyKane]

Locking in:

CHASE 36, 1st of 5
Marlins +109
$60 to win $65.40

[HappyKane]

Locking in:

CHASE 37, 1st of 5
Giants +130
$60 to win $78

[jforster101]

keep up the good work i've been following this thread for a while. much respect!

[HappyKane]

There were no "fade the public" plays the last two days.

Thursday's ledger:

CHASE 34, 2nd of 5 LOSE $109
CHASE 35, 1st of 5 WIN $60
CHASE 34, 3rd of 5 LOSE $191
CHASE 36, 1st of 5 WIN $60
CHASE 37, 1st of 5 LOSE $60

YTD record: 35-0. Up $1,081.35.

Here are Saturday's qualifiers:

TB 21% C. Archer A+
DET 79% A. Sanchez C+

SF 74% T. Hudson B-
SD 26% O. Despaigne C-

HOU 28% S. Feldman C-
LAA 72% H. Santiago C-

[HappyKane]

Locking in:

CHASE 34, 3rd of 5
Rays +114
$335 to win $381.90

[mrk77]

Hey, I have a question. What determines what game is for what chase? For example today we're on the 4th game of chase #34, which one of today's qualifiers will be the 4th?

[HappyKane]

Correction:

CHASE 34, 4th of 5

[HappyKane]

Hey, I have a question. What determines what game is for what chase? For example today we're on the 4th game of chase #34, which one of today's qualifiers will be the 4th?

The first one available.

CHASE 37, 1st try lost. So the next available after the Rays game will be CHASE 37, 2nd of 5.

Someone mentioned that he didn't understand how i chase different teams and not the same team.

After 4 years of tracking...

CHASING ONE TEAM TO NOT GET SWEPT OR GET A WIN IS THE DUMBEST THING YOU CAN DO IN ANY SEASON.

See spreadsheet here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ai8y0VjQSNzcdFdjdTlUR1RhQlJDdTE4dTBaOXBMakE&usp=drive_web#gid=0

[HappyKane]

Locking in:

CHASE 37, 2nd of 5
Padres +117
$105 to win $122.85

[HappyKane]

No play on the Astros tonight. Too big of an underdog at some books.

[HappyKane]

1-1 on Saturday brings the YTD record to 36-0. Up $1,358.25

Onto Sunday:

ARI 26% W. Miley C+
ATL 74% A. Wood C-

TOR 36% D. Hutchinson A+
OAK 64 J. Samardzija C-

TB 38% D. Price B+
DET 62% R. Porcello B+

Will most likely pass on the Diamondbacks. Big underdogs are automatically disqualified and Arizona is +150 at 5Dimes right now.

[qweretyq]

Are there particular stats you use to come up with the pitcher ratings?

Also, I think however you come up with the picks is just good (at 57%).
The chase part of it is just money management so hard to say how effective that part really is.

[HappyKane]

Locking in:

CHASE 37, 3rd of 5
Blue Jays +142
$191 to win $271.22

[HappyKane]

0-1 on Sunday brings the YTD record to 36-0. Up $1,167.25.

CHASE 37 will go to 4th try.

Missed out on the TB Rays Sunday night game; was an easy winner.

Onto Monday:

SF 37% R. Vogelsong B-
OAK 63% J. Chavez C+

[HappyKane]

Are there particular stats you use to come up with the pitcher ratings?

Also, I think however you come up with the picks is just good (at 57%).
The chase part of it is just money management so hard to say how effective that part really is.

The ratings are not based on past stats.

[HappyKane]

Monday update:

NYY 35% S. Greene B+
CLE 65% J. Masterson A/B+

SF 37% R. Vogelsong B-
OAK 63% J. Chavez C+