MLB FADE THE PUBLIC 5-GAME CHASE (risk .0075% of bankroll, then 75% of loss martingal

[HappyKane]

I thought the public favorite was the 56% Nationals, while the line is only set favoring the Padres. Most of the day the public favored the Nationals around 70%.

Yeah. For most of the day the public favored the road underdog in the Nationals. But i guess as people took a closer look at Tyson Ross's stats (especially at home) the market and the line moved towards the home team.

That was my fault for pulling the trigger too soon.

Any given day a solid pitcher can go down. Yesterday: Johnny Cueto, Kyle Lohse, Tyson Ross.

[HappyKane]

1st play for June 7:

CHASE 10, 3rd of 5
Phillies +130
$123 to win $159.90

Next 2 possible qualifiers later this evening:

BOS 40% J. Lester
DET 60% M. Scherzer

OAK 75% S. Gray
BAL 25% K. Gausman

BOS will most likely be CHASE 12, 2nd try and BAL will be a new CHASE 13.

[HappyKane]

The rest of the day:

CHASE 12, 2nd of 5
Red Sox +115
$80 to win $92

CHASE 13, 1st of 5
Orioles +118
$40 to win $47.20

[HappyKane]

1 winner, 2 losers again on Saturday. System goes to 11-0 but down -$44.11. One loss away from a deeper hole or one win away from getting [nearly] all of it back.

For Sunday, one qualified play for sure on the Rockies. That will be CHASE 10, 4th of 5, if the St. Louis Cardinals do not qualify as a fade the public play in an earlier game -- needs 59% or more market support on the Blue Jays.

[HappyKane]

2 plays for Sunday, June 8:

CHASE 10, 4th of 5
Cardinals +140
$215 to win $301

CHASE 12, 3rd of 5
Rockies +137
$140 to win $191.80

[HappyKane]

1-1 on Sunday. System goes to 12-0. Up $119.89.

Next play will be CHASE 12, 4th of 5.

It looks like there will be no qualified "fade" the public play(s) for Monday.

[HappyKane]

No play on Monday.

Possible play for Tuesday:

BOS 37% B. Workman
BAL 63% C. Tillman

Will wait until after 3PM EST to pull the trigger.

[HappyKane]

Make that 2 possible plays for Tuesday:

Red Sox and Mets.

[HappyKane]

2 "fade the public" plays for Tuesday, June 10th:

CHASE 12, 4th of 5
Red Sox +115
$245 to win $281.75

CHASE 14, 1st of 5
Mets +120
$40 to win $48

[HappyKane]

14-0 YTD. +$449.64.

One likely play for Wednesday, June 11th:

Going back to the well with the Mets as deGrom is still seeking his first win.

[HappyKane]

One qualifier for Wednesday, starting a new chase:

CHASE 15, 1st of 5
Mets +110
$50 to win $55

[stickbit]

Kane...if a chase loses today and there are say 2 or more that qualify tomorrow...how do you decide which gm will be gm 2?

[HappyKane]

Early game, Thursday:

CHASE 15, 2nd of 5
Rockies -102
$88 to win $86.27

Evening game will be a new chase on Baltimore. Both games not for the faint of heart -- going against Ervin Santana and Mark Buehrle.

[HappyKane]

stickbit -

2 qualifiers for Thursday, June 12th:

COL and BAL

COL will be CHASE 15, 2nd of 5

BAL will be CHASE 16, 1st of 5

[HappyKane]

make that 3 qualifiers for Thursday, June 12th:

COL and BAL and PIT

COL will be CHASE 15, 2nd of 5

BAL will be CHASE 16, 1st of 5

PIT, if the percentages hold up [until 1 hour before game time], will be CHASE 17, 1st of 5.

[fitguy67]

Hey HK, very interesting angle...

can anybody tell me how to check this "the percentages hold up" thing for the chc/PIT game...

just like RPI, there seem to be several sites reporting these "consensus numbers"...but for a system, you have to settle on one as the "up or down" decider...

exactly what set of numbers do you use and what's the "trigger" for a go

tell me if the PIT game starting in 45minutes is a play = "giving me a fish"
tell me how to check for myself = "teaching me how to fish"

thanks

[HappyKane]

Rockies win! Brings the YTD record to 15-0, up $485.91.

2 more qualifiers remaining for June 12th:

CHASE 16, 1st of 5
Orioles -115
$50 to win $43.48

CHASE 17, 1st of 5
Pirates -119
$50 to win $42.20

[HappyKane]

CHASE 18, 19, 20, all 1st of 5's

Orioles +103
Twins +146
Pirates +115

all risking $50

[HappyKane]

2-1 on Friday, 3-0 on Thursday brings the YTD record to 19-0. Up $652.09.

CHASE 18 goes to 2nd try.

And we have a gem for Saturday.

Early bets coming in on Garret Richards and the Angels.

Will re-check the percentages (via sportsinsight) a few hours before first pitch.

[jforster101]

If you don't mind me asking where do you get the ratings for the pitchers? are you grading the pitchers or is it an outside source? i like your system man looks like its working well.

[HappyKane]

Yes. The ratings are my own machinations. Its something i have developed since 2006.

This is the first year/season utilizing the "fade the public" system. The system do make some crazy picks as most picks will be unpopular underdogs. Fine by me as long as it keeps winning.

[HappyKane]

I highly doubt the market on the Angels drop below 59%.

Pulling the trigger early:

CHASE 18, 2nd of 5
Braves +101
$88 to win $88.88

[keel44]

The public is on Kuroda and the Yankees. How about going with A's and Kazmir?

[fitguy67]

HK, obvious question (can't believe no one's asked yet...unless someone has, and i overlooked it...

do you place your bets as ACTION...or LISTED PITCHERS?

[HappyKane]

0-1 on Saturday.

YTD record: 19-0, up $564.09.

Braves made it interesting last night but 20-0 will have to wait.

There is no qualified "fade the public" play right now but if Washington gets more market support (59% or more) then St. Louis could be a play.

[HappyKane]

The public is on Kuroda and the Yankees. How about going with A's and Kazmir?

Hmm. I saw over 55% on the Athletics.

I can't see the public being on the Yankees knowing that Kazmir's starts = 11-2 with the Athletics.

[HappyKane]

HK, obvious question (can't believe no one's asked yet...unless someone has, and i overlooked it...

do you place your bets as ACTION...or LISTED PITCHERS?

Always LISTED because 75% of the system is based on the "luck" or "bad luck" of the pitchers involved.

[HappyKane]

Its a qualifier!

CHASE 18, 3rd of 5
Cardinals -107
$154 to win $143.93

[HappyKane]

1-0 on Sunday brings the system to 20-0. Up $708.02.

One very possible play for Monday: Diamondbacks.

Everybody and their mother on Wily Peralta and the Brewers. As they should.

[keel44]

All year Brandon McCarthy has been given so much love. I don't see why.

Anyway, how about the Cubs as a play?

[HappyKane]

All year Brandon McCarthy has been given so much love. I don't see why.

Anyway, how about the Cubs as a play?

Bad rating for Hammel. Good rating for Koehler. Its not a qualified play.

[HappyKane]

CHASE 21, 1st of 5
Diamondbacks -122
$50 to win $40.98

[HappyKane]

0-1 on Monday.
YTD record: 20-0. Up $658.02.


4 possible plays for Tuesday:


HOU 41% D. Keuchel
WAS 59% T. Roark


CHC 37% J. Samardzija
MIA 63% A. DeSclafani


SF 72% M. Cain

CWS 28% J. Danks


TEX 63% Y. Darvish
OAK 37% T. Milone


Will have to wait about 45 minutes before first-pitch to see where the percentages land for the HOU/WAS game. Below 59% is a no-go; anything above 59% is a play. Cubs, White Sox and Athletics are most likely to be qualifying plays.

[AceofSP2107]

Do you get you info from covers or vegasinsider ? Just curious thanks

[HappyKane]

I use the percentages from here:

http://www.thespread.com/mlb-baseball-public-betting-chart#.U6DLwyh8kes