10+ Runs Home Chase System

[skyscrapers]

A note on Chase #30. This chase is cancelled because the (A) game is suspended and our wager was refunded by our books. This suspended game will resume Apr. 15 Tue 2:30p PDT. If it results in a Cincinnati win then the regularly scheduled game right afterwards will qualify as our new (A) bet. Hopefully I have time to post tomorrow but if not then you guys know what to do.

[TakingVegasMoney]

Tigers game has been postponed to a later date. Is there next home game now there B bet?

[skyscrapers]

Tigers game has been postponed to a later date. Is there next home game now there B bet?

Yes, Wednesday's game will be the new 'B' bet

[skyscrapers]

2010 Backtest (Revised)

SF only has 14 wins instead of 15. Please disregard post #85

- Backtests is based on the closing lines on Pinnacle as listed on SBR.

ARI (18-2) (-8.35u / -12.555u)
ATL (20-0)
BAL (12-1) (-11.04u)
BOS (17-1) (-11.695u)
CHC (12-1) (-9.81u)
CWS (13-2) (-10u / -9.725u)
CIN (13-2) (-13.06u / -13.63u)
CLE (9-1) (-9.845u)
COL (24-1) (-11.955u)
DET (18-0)
FLA (16-2) (-12.55u / -10.425u)
HOU (8-1) (-13.123u)
KC (13-0)
LAA (14-2) (-10.953u) / -13.915u)
LAD (14-0)
MIL (14-4) (-8.62u / -14.445u / -9.505u / -9.235u)
MIN (17-1) (-9.49u)
NYM (12-0)
NYY (24-3) (-12.495u / -22.6u / -33.555u)
OAK (10-0)
PHI (20-1) (-11.03u)
PIT (12-0)
SD (9-1) (-9.9u)
SEA (3-0)
SF (14-1) (-11.515u)
STL (13-0)
TB (14-3) (-15.695u / -15.91u / -15.86u)
TEX (24-0)
TOR (10-2) (-12.74u / -9.605u)
WSH (11-2) (-9.785u / -8.12u)

2010 TOTAL: (428-34) 428u won / 422.736u lost = +5.264u PROFIT

[skyscrapers]

2009 Backtest
- Backtests is based on the closing lines on Pinnacle as listed on SBR.

ARI (10-3) (-9.19u / 12.155u / -9.14u)
ATL (12-2) (-12.775u / -10.005u)
BAL (15-2) (-11.385u / -9.3u)
BOS (23-1) (-21.265u)
CHC (16-1) (-8.85u)
CWS (11-1) (-11.015u)
CIN (8-1) (-11.555u)
CLE (12-2) (-9.59u / -10.16u)
COL (19-3) (-7.965u / -9.29u / -12.365u)
DET (21-0)
FLA (19-0)
HOU (9-1) (-9.56u)
KC (13-1) (-11.9u)
LAA (19-0)
LAD (15-0)
MIL (15-0)
MIN (16-0)
NYM (12-0)
NYY (24-1) (-16.635u)
OAK (17-2) (-13.175u / -11.15u)
PHI (13-2) (-12.76u / -18.055u)
PIT (12-3) (-9.635u / -11.105u / -10.15u)
SD (7-0)
SEA (12-0)
SF (12-2) (-12.255u / -11.845u)
STL (12-2) (-10.92u / -10.075u)
TB (18-1) (-11.48u)
TEX (14-2) (-10.59u / -10.88u)
TOR (17-0)
WSH (9-2) (-10.48u / -8.06u)

2009 TOTAL: (432-35) 432u won / 396.715u lost = +35.285u PROFIT

[skyscrapers]

The 5-year (2009-2013) updated backtest results are:
(1,955 - 147) +264.264u PROFIT

2013: (350-25) +80.36u (Post #84)
2012: (378-26) +60.195u (Post #3)
2011: (367-27) +83.16u (Post #22)
2010: (428-34) +5.264u (Post #144)
2009: (432-35) +35.285u (Post #145)

[skyscrapers]

COMPLETED CHASES (Apr. 15 Tue)

None

Record: (24-0) +24.0u

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
ACTIVE CHASES:

Chase #10:
BAL @ DET [ML] 1.69 (A) Apr. 06 Sun - LOSS (-1.45u)
CLE @ DET [ML] 1.66 (B) Apr. 15 Tue - POSTPONED
CLE @ DET [ML] (B) Apr. 16 Wed 4:05p PDT
CLE @ DET (C) Apr. 17 Thu 10:05a PDT (If Necessary)

Chase #12:
LAA @ HOU [+1.5 RL] 1.84 (A) Apr. 07 Mon - LOSS (-1.19u)
KC @HOU [+1.5 RL] 1.94 (B) Apr. 15 Tue -LOSS (-2.33u)
KC @ HOU [+1.5 RL] (C) Apr. 16 Wed 5:10p PDT

Chase #18:
HOU @ TOR [ML] 1.51 (A) Apr. 10 Thu - LOSS (-1.96u)
BAL @ TOR (B) Apr. 22 Tue 4:05p PDT
BAL @ TOR (C) Apr. 23 Wed 4:05p PDT (If Necessary)

Chase #26:
OAK @ SEA [+1.5 RL] 1.72 (A) Apr. 12 Sat - LOSS (-1.39u)
OAK @ SEA [+1.5 RL] 1.73 (B) Apr. 13 Sun - LOSS (-3.275u)
HOU @ SEA (C) Apr. 21 Mon 7:10p PDT

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
NEW CHASES: (Beginning on or after Apr. 16 Wed)

Chase #20:
MIN @ KC (A) Apr. 18 Fri 5:10p PDT
MIN @ KC (B) Apr. 19 Sat 11:10a PDT (If Necessary)
MIN @ KC (C) Apr. 20 Sun 11:10a PDT (If Necessary)

Chase #21:
PHI @ COL (A) Apr. 18 Fri 5:40p PDT
PHI @ COL (B) Apr. 19 Sat 5:10p PDT (If Necessary)
PHI @ COL (C) Apr. 20 Sun 1:10p PDT (If Necessary)

Chase #32:
MIA @ ATL (A) Apr. 21 Mon 4:10p PDT
MIA @ ATL (B) Apr. 22 Tue 4:10p PDT (If Necessary)
MIA @ ATL (C) Apr. 23 Wed 9:10a PDT (If Necessary)

Chase #33:
PIT @ STL (A) Apr. 25 Fri 5:15p PDT
PIT @ STL (B) Apr. 26 Sat 1:05 PDT (If Necessary)
PIT @ STL (C) Apr. 27 Sun 11:15a PDT (If Necessary)

Chase #34:
WSH @ MIA [ML] (A) Apr. 16 Wed 4:10p PDT
SEA @ MIA (B) Apr. 18 Fri 4:10p PDT (If Necessary)
SEA @ MIA (C) Apr. 19 Sat 4:10p PDT (If Necessary)

Chase #35:
PIT @ CIN [ML] 1.90 (A) Apr. 16 Wed 9:35a PDT
CHC @ CIN (B) Apr. 28 Mon 4:10p PDT (If Necessary)
CHC @ CIN (C) Apr. 29 Tue 4:10p PDT (If Necessary)

[skyscrapers]

COMPLETED CHASES (Apr. 16 Wed)

Chase #12: LOSS (-10.695u)
LAA @ HOU [+1.5 RL] 1.84 (A) Apr. 07 Mon - LOSS (-1.19u)
KC @ HOU [+1.5 RL] 1.94 (B) Apr. 15 Tue - LOSS (-2.33u)
KC @ HOU [+1.5 RL] 1.63 (C) Apr. 16 Wed - LOSS (-7.175u)

Chase #35: - WIN (+1.0u)
PIT @ CIN [ML] 1.90 (A) Apr. 16 Wed - WIN (+1.0u)

Record: (25-1) +14.305u

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
ACTIVE CHASES:

Chase #10:
BAL @ DET [ML] 1.69 (A) Apr. 06 Sun - LOSS (-1.45u)
CLE @ DET [ML] 1.66 (B) Apr. 15 Tue - POSTPONED
CLE @ DET [ML] 1.71 (B) Apr. 16 Wed 4:05p PDT - LOSS (-3.45u)
CLE @ DET [ML] (C) Apr. 17 Thu 10:05a PDT

Chase #18:
HOU @ TOR [ML] 1.51 (A) Apr. 10 Thu - LOSS (-1.96u)
BAL @ TOR (B) Apr. 22 Tue 4:05p PDT
BAL @ TOR (C) Apr. 23 Wed 4:05p PDT (If Necessary)

Chase #26:
OAK @ SEA [+1.5 RL] 1.72 (A) Apr. 12 Sat - LOSS (-1.39u)
OAK @ SEA [+1.5 RL] 1.73 (B) Apr. 13 Sun - LOSS (-3.275u)
HOU @ SEA (C) Apr. 21 Mon 7:10p PDT

Chase #34:
WSH @ MIA [ML] 1.60 (A) Apr. 16 Wed 4:10p PDT - LOSS (-1.665u)
SEA @ MIA (B) Apr. 18 Fri 4:10p PDT
SEA @ MIA (C) Apr. 19 Sat 4:10p PDT (If Necessary)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
NEW CHASES: (Beginning on or after Apr. 17 Thu)

Chase #20:
MIN @ KC (A) Apr. 18 Fri 5:10p PDT
MIN @ KC (B) Apr. 19 Sat 11:10a PDT (If Necessary)
MIN @ KC (C) Apr. 20 Sun 11:10a PDT (If Necessary)

Chase #21:
PHI @ COL (A) Apr. 18 Fri 5:40p PDT
PHI @ COL (B) Apr. 19 Sat 5:10p PDT (If Necessary)
PHI @ COL (C) Apr. 20 Sun 1:10p PDT (If Necessary)

Chase #32:
MIA @ ATL (A) Apr. 21 Mon 4:10p PDT
MIA @ ATL (B) Apr. 22 Tue 4:10p PDT (If Necessary)
MIA @ ATL (C) Apr. 23 Wed 9:10a PDT (If Necessary)

Chase #33:
PIT @ STL (A) Apr. 25 Fri 5:15p PDT
PIT @ STL (B) Apr. 26 Sat 1:05 PDT (If Necessary)
PIT @ STL (C) Apr. 27 Sun 11:15a PDT (If Necessary)

[yoderlw]

Figured when the game went into extras we had the Houston bet wrapped up! Oh well, we can't expect the system to be perfect. Thanks for the continued work Skyscrapers!

[skyscrapers]

Figured when the game went into extras we had the Houston bet wrapped up! Oh well, we can't expect the system to be perfect. Thanks for the continued work Skyscrapers!

Oh well, at least we got our first loss out of the way.
Today another [C] bet...in Verlander we trust!!

[yoderlw]

Errors almost killed us. Made me wanna kill Detroit's infielders. Funny how gambling did that to you. But we got the big win anyway. Let's keep rolling!

[skyscrapers]

COMPLETED CHASES (Apr. 17 Thu)

Chase #10: WIN (+1.0u)
BAL @ DET [ML] 1.69 (A) Apr. 06 Sun - LOSS (-1.45u)
CLE @ DET [ML] 1.66 (B) Apr. 15 Tue - POSTPONED
CLE @ DET [ML] 1.71 (B) Apr. 16 Wed - LOSS (-3.45u)
CLE @ DET [ML] 1.65 (C) Apr. 17 Thu - WIN (+5.9u)

Record: (26-1) +15.305u

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
ACTIVE CHASES:

Chase #18:
HOU @ TOR [ML] 1.51 (A) Apr. 10 Thu - LOSS (-1.96u)
BAL @ TOR (B) Apr. 22 Tue 4:05p PDT
BAL @ TOR (C) Apr. 23 Wed 4:05p PDT (If Necessary)

Chase #26:
OAK @ SEA [+1.5 RL] 1.72 (A) Apr. 12 Sat - LOSS (-1.39u)
OAK @ SEA [+1.5 RL] 1.73 (B) Apr. 13 Sun - LOSS (-3.275u)
HOU @ SEA (C) Apr. 21 Mon 7:10p PDT

Chase #34:
WSH @ MIA [ML] 1.60 (A) Apr. 16 Wed 4:10p PDT - LOSS (-1.665u)
SEA @ MIA [ML] (B) Apr. 18 Fri 4:10p PDT
SEA @ MIA (C) Apr. 19 Sat 4:10p PDT (If Necessary)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
NEW CHASES: (Beginning on or after Apr. 18 Fri)

Chase #20:
MIN @ KC [ML] (A) Apr. 18 Fri 5:10p PDT
MIN @ KC (B) Apr. 19 Sat 11:10a PDT (If Necessary)
MIN @ KC (C) Apr. 20 Sun 11:10a PDT (If Necessary)

Chase #21:
PHI @ COL [ML] (A) Apr. 18 Fri 5:40p PDT
PHI @ COL (B) Apr. 19 Sat 5:10p PDT (If Necessary)
PHI @ COL (C) Apr. 20 Sun 1:10p PDT (If Necessary)

Chase #32:
MIA @ ATL (A) Apr. 21 Mon 4:10p PDT
MIA @ ATL (B) Apr. 22 Tue 4:10p PDT (If Necessary)
MIA @ ATL (C) Apr. 23 Wed 9:10a PDT (If Necessary)

Chase #33:
PIT @ STL (A) Apr. 25 Fri 5:15p PDT
PIT @ STL (B) Apr. 26 Sat 1:05 PDT (If Necessary)
PIT @ STL (C) Apr. 27 Sun 11:15a PDT (If Necessary)

Chase #36:
LAA @ DET [ML] (A) Apr. 18 Fri 4:05p PDT
LAA @ DET (B) Apr. 19 Sat 10:05a PDT (If Necessary)
LAA @ DET (C) Apr. 20 Sun 10:05a PDT (If Necessary)

Chase #37:
CWS @ TEX [ML] (A) Apr. 18 Fri 5:05p PDT
CWS @ TEX (B) Apr. 19 Sat 5:05p PDT (If Necessary)
CWS @ TEX (C) Apr. 20 Sun 12:05p PDT (If Necessary)

Chase #38:
MIL @ PIT [ML] (A) Apr. 18 Fri 4:05p PDT
MIL @ PIT (B) Apr. 19 Sat 4:05p PDT (If Necessary)
MIL @ PIT (C) Apr. 20 Sun 10:35a PDT (If Necessary)

Chase #39:
DET @ MIN (A) Apr. 25 Fri 5:10p PDT
DET @ MIN (B) Apr. 26 Sat 11:10a PDT (If Necessary)
DET @ MIN (C) Apr. 27 Sun 11:10a PDT (If Necessary)

[skyscrapers]

COMPLETED CHASES (Apr. 18 Fri)

Chase #20: WIN (+1.0u)
MIN @ KC [ML] 1.69 (A) Apr. 18 Fri - WIN (+1.0u)

Chase #21: WIN (+1.0u)
PHI @ COL [ML] 1.69 (A) Apr. 18 Fri - WIN (+1.0u)

Chase #34: WIN (+1.0u)
WSH @ MIA [ML] 1.60 (A) Apr. 16 Wed - LOSS (-1.665u)
SEA @ MIA [ML] 1.85 (B) Apr. 18 Fri - WIN (+2.665u)

Chase #37: WIN (+1.0u)
CWS @ TEX [ML] 1.63 (A) Apr. 18 Fri - WIN (+1.0u)

Record: (30-1) +19.305u

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
ACTIVE CHASES:

Chase #18:
HOU @ TOR [ML] 1.51 (A) Apr. 10 Thu - LOSS (-1.96u)
BAL @ TOR (B) Apr. 22 Tue 4:05p PDT
BAL @ TOR (C) Apr. 23 Wed 4:05p PDT (If Necessary)

Chase #26:
OAK @ SEA [+1.5 RL] 1.72 (A) Apr. 12 Sat - LOSS (-1.39u)
OAK @ SEA [+1.5 RL] 1.73 (B) Apr. 13 Sun - LOSS (-3.275u)
HOU @ SEA (C) Apr. 21 Mon 7:10p PDT

Chase #36:
LAA @ DET [ML] 1.81 (A) Apr. 18 Fri - LOSS (1.235u)
LAA @ DET [ML] (B) Apr. 19 Sat 10:05a PDT
LAA @ DET (C) Apr. 20 Sun 10:05a PDT (If Necessary)

Chase #38:
MIL @ PIT [ML] 1.82 (A) Apr. 18 Fri - LOSS (-1.22u)
MIL @ PIT [ML] 1.92 (B) Apr. 19 Sat 4:05p PDT
MIL @ PIT (C) Apr. 20 Sun 10:35a PDT (If Necessary)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
NEW CHASES: (Beginning on or after Apr. 19 Sat)

Chase #32:
MIA @ ATL (A) Apr. 21 Mon 4:10p PDT
MIA @ ATL (B) Apr. 22 Tue 4:10p PDT (If Necessary)
MIA @ ATL (C) Apr. 23 Wed 9:10a PDT (If Necessary)

Chase #33:
PIT @ STL (A) Apr. 25 Fri 5:15p PDT
PIT @ STL (B) Apr. 26 Sat 1:05 PDT (If Necessary)
PIT @ STL (C) Apr. 27 Sun 11:15a PDT (If Necessary)

Chase #39:
DET @ MIN (A) Apr. 25 Fri 5:10p PDT
DET @ MIN (B) Apr. 26 Sat 11:10a PDT (If Necessary)
DET @ MIN (C) Apr. 27 Sun 11:10a PDT (If Necessary)

Chase #40:
PHI @ COL [ML] (A) Apr. 19 Sat 5:10p PDT
PHI @ COL (B) Apr. 20 Sun 1:10p PDT (If Necessary)
SF @ COL (C) Apr. 21 Mon 5:40p PDT (If Necessary)

Chase #41:
HOU @ OAK [ML] (A) Apr. 19 Sat 1:05p PDT
HOU @ OAK (B) Apr. 20 Sun 1:05p PDT (If Necessary)
TEX @ OAK (C) Apr. 21 Mon 7:05p PDT (If Necessary)

Chase #42:
NYY @ TB [ML] (A) Apr. 19 Sat 4:10p PDT
NYY @ TB (B) Apr. 20 Sun 10:40a PDT (If Necessary)
MIN @ TB (C) Apr. 22 Tue 4:10p PDT (If Necessary)

Chase #43:
CWS @ TEX [ML] (A) Apr. 19 Sat 5:05p PDT
CWS @ TEX (B) Apr. 20 Sun 12:05p PDT (If Necessary)
OAK @ TEX (C) Apr. 28 Mon 5:05p PDT (If Necessary)

Chase #44:
SEA @ MIA [ML] 1.93 (A) Apr. 19 Sat 4:10p PDT
SEA @ MIA (B) Apr. 20 Sun 10:10a PDT (If Necessary)
ATL @ MIA (C) Apr. 29 Tue 4:10p PDT (If Necessary)

[skyscrapers]

The plays on PIT & MIA is officially [ML]. The line moved drammatically in the last 20 minutes from a dog to a favorite and closed at 1.92 & 1.93 respectively. I was not able to wait until gametime and locked in both at [+1.5 RL].

[skyscrapers]

COMPLETED CHASES (Apr. 19 Sat)

Chase #36: WIN (+1.0u)
LAA @ DET [ML] 1.81 (A) Apr. 18 Fri - LOSS (-1.235u)
LAA @ DET [ML] 1.63 (B) Apr. 19 Sat - WIN (+2.235u)

Chase #40: WIN (+1.0u)
PHI @ COL [ML] 1.73 (A) Apr. 19 Sat - WIN (+1.0u)

Chase #41: WIN (+1.0u)
HOU @ OAK [ML] 1.47 (A) Apr. 19 Sat - WIN (+1.0u)

Chase #42: WIN (+1.0u)
NYY @ TB [ML] 1.75 (A) Apr. 19 Sat - WIN (+1.0u)

Chase #43: WIN (+1.0u)
CWS @ TEX [ML] 1.84 (A) Apr. 19 Sat -WIN (+1.0u)

Chase #44: WIN (+1.0u)
SEA @ MIA [ML] 1.93 (A) Apr. 19 Sat - WIN (+1.0u)

Record: (36-1) +25.305u

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
ACTIVE CHASES:

Chase #18:
HOU @ TOR [ML] 1.51 (A) Apr. 10 Thu - LOSS (-1.96u)
BAL @ TOR (B) Apr. 22 Tue 4:05p PDT
BAL @ TOR (C) Apr. 23 Wed 4:05p PDT (If Necessary)

Chase #26:
OAK @ SEA [+1.5 RL] 1.72 (A) Apr. 12 Sat - LOSS (-1.39u)
OAK @ SEA [+1.5 RL] 1.73 (B) Apr. 13 Sun - LOSS (-3.275u)
HOU @ SEA (C) Apr. 21 Mon 7:10p PDT

Chase #38:
MIL @ PIT [ML] 1.82 (A) Apr. 18 Fri - LOSS (-1.22u)
MIL @ PIT [ML] 1.92 (B) Apr. 19 Sat - LOSS (-2.415u)
MIL @ PIT [ML] 1.79 (C) Apr. 20 Sun 10:35a PDT

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
NEW CHASES: (Beginning on or after Apr. 20 Sun)

Chase #32:
MIA @ ATL (A) Apr. 21 Mon 4:10p PDT
MIA @ ATL (B) Apr. 22 Tue 4:10p PDT (If Necessary)
MIA @ ATL (C) Apr. 23 Wed 9:10a PDT (If Necessary)

Chase #33:
PIT @ STL (A) Apr. 25 Fri 5:15p PDT
PIT @ STL (B) Apr. 26 Sat 1:05 PDT (If Necessary)
PIT @ STL (C) Apr. 27 Sun 11:15a PDT (If Necessary)

Chase #39:
DET @ MIN (A) Apr. 25 Fri 5:10p PDT
DET @ MIN (B) Apr. 26 Sat 11:10a PDT (If Necessary)
DET @ MIN (C) Apr. 27 Sun 11:10a PDT (If Necessary)

Chase #45:
CIN @ CHC [+1.5 RL] 1.73 (A) Apr. 20 Sun 11:20a PDT
ARI @ CHC (B) Apr. 21 Mon 5:05p PDT (If Necessary)
ARI @ CHC (C) Apr. 22 Tue 5:05p PDT (If Necessary)

Chase #46:
ARI @ LAD [ML] (A) Apr. 20 Sun 1:10p PDT
PHI @ LAD (B) Apr. 21 Mon 7:10p PDT (If Necessary)
PHI @ LAD (C) Apr. 22 Tue 7:10p PDT (If Necessary)

Chase #47:
NYY @ TB [ML] 1.77 (A) Apr. 20 Sun 10:40a PDT
MIN @ TB (B) Apr. 22 Tue 4:10p PDT (If Necessary)
MIN @ TB (C) Apr. 23 Wed 4:10p PDT (If Necessary)

[yoderlw]

What a day yesterday for the system! I could have sworn you had us take Pitt for +1 1/2, so that's what I bet and I won that one too. Perfect day! Thanks for the continued work Skyscrapers!!

[TakingVegasMoney]

What a day yesterday for the system! I could have sworn you had us take Pitt for +1 1/2, so that's what I bet and I won that one too. Perfect day! Thanks for the continued work Skyscrapers!!

Me too! I had them on the RL. Sky, thanks for all the work man. I appreciate it

[yoderlw]

Okay I just now saw your post about the line movement and changing the bets to ML. Glad I just now saw it! Looks like you, me, Vegas all made the right bet anyway!

[skyscrapers]

It was a banner day for sure!! I played the +1.5 as well and won everything.
What a finish in Oakland down 3-1 in the 9th and
what a crappy finish by the Bucs up 7-6 in the 9th and then blowing it.

[ghost212]

skyscrapers your system smells good, but 30-60 units winning per over 400 bets its not so much.
I think you should backtest that system in other options. 1. 4-game chasing. 2. add to every next bet(B,C,D) 1 extra unit to win each. This way to betting system is more profitable, i checked that for other systems.
If you don't mind, i will backtest your system for 6 years with my options.

[skyscrapers]

skyscrapers your system smells good, but 30-60 units winning per over 400 bets its not so much.
I think you should backtest that system in other options. 1. 4-game chasing. 2. add to every next bet(B,C,D) 1 extra unit to win each. This way to betting system is more profitable, i checked that for other systems.
If you don't mind, i will backtest your system for 6 years with my options.

Thanks for the input. Prior to the start of this live test this season I briefly backtested a 4-game chase but the additional profit gained is less than the additional units lost. A lost 4-game moneyline chase is very costly. On the other hand I like the idea of adding an extra unit to each leg. Something that could definitely be explored for next season.

[TakingVegasMoney]

Thanks for the input. Prior to the start of this live test this season I briefly backtested a 4-game chase but the additional profit gained is less than the additional units lost. A lost 4-game moneyline chase is very costly. On the other hand I like the idea of adding an extra unit to each leg. Something that could definitely be explored for next season.

The loss on that third leg could be something close to a loss in a 4-game chase, no?

[yoderlw]

I feel like this is a very simple problem to solve... What is your "unit"? If your "unit" is 100 dollars and you are unsatisfied with only winning 30-60 units/ 3000-6000 dollars just increase your "unit" size to 200. Now you are winning 6000-12000 dollars. Anyway, looks like tomorrow should be a big day after a lot of runs were scored today. Looking forward to it. And happy Easter to everyone! Christ died on a cross for our sins and rose three days later to conquer death so that we may live in heaven with him eternally!!

[skyscrapers]

COMPLETED CHASES (Apr. 20 Sun)

Chase #38: LOSS (-9.5u)
MIL @ PIT [ML] 1.82 (A) Apr. 18 Fri - LOSS (-1.22u)
MIL @ PIT [ML] 1.92 (B) Apr. 19 Sat - LOSS (-2.415u)
MIL @ PIT [ML] 1.79 (C) Apr. 20 Sun - LOSS (-5.865u)

Chase #46: WIN (+1.0u)
ARI @ LAD [ML] 1.71 (A) Apr. 20 Sun - WIN (+1.0u)

Record: (37-2) +16.805u
Season High: +26.305u

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
ACTIVE CHASES:

Chase #18:
HOU @ TOR [ML] 1.51 (A) Apr. 10 Thu - LOSS (-1.96u)
BAL @ TOR (B) Apr. 22 Tue 4:05p PDT
BAL @ TOR (C) Apr. 23 Wed 4:05p PDT (If Necessary)

Chase #26:
OAK @ SEA [+1.5 RL] 1.72 (A) Apr. 12 Sat - LOSS (-1.39u)
OAK @ SEA [+1.5 RL] 1.73 (B) Apr. 13 Sun - LOSS (-3.275u)
HOU @ SEA [ML] (C) Apr. 21 Mon 7:10p PDT

Chase #45:
CIN @ CHC [+1.5 RL] 1.73 (A) Apr. 20 Sun - LOSS (-1.37u)
ARI @ CHC [ML] (B) Apr. 21 Mon 5:05p PDT
ARI @ CHC (C) Apr. 22 Tue 5:05p PDT (If Necessary)

Chase #47:
NYY @ TB [ML] 1.77 (A) Apr. 20 Sun - LOSS (-1.3u)
MIN @ TB (B) Apr. 22 Tue 4:10p PDT
MIN @ TB (C) Apr. 23 Wed 4:10p PDT (If Necessary)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
NEW CHASES: (Beginning on or after Apr. 21 Mon)

Chase #32:
MIA @ ATL [ML] (A) Apr. 21 Mon 4:10p PDT
MIA @ ATL (B) Apr. 22 Tue 4:10p PDT (If Necessary)
MIA @ ATL (C) Apr. 23 Wed 9:10a PDT (If Necessary)

Chase #33:
PIT @ STL (A) Apr. 25 Fri 5:15p PDT
PIT @ STL (B) Apr. 26 Sat 1:05 PDT (If Necessary)
PIT @ STL (C) Apr. 27 Sun 11:15a PDT (If Necessary)

Chase #39:
DET @ MIN (A) Apr. 25 Fri 5:10p PDT
DET @ MIN (B) Apr. 26 Sat 11:10a PDT (If Necessary)
DET @ MIN (C) Apr. 27 Sun 11:10a PDT (If Necessary)

Chase #48:
BAL @ BOS [ML] (A) Apr. 21 Mon 8:05a PDT
NYY @ BOS (B) Apr. 22 Tue 4:10p PDT (If Necessary)
NYY @ BOS (C) Apr. 23 Wed 4:05p PDT (If Necessary)

Chase #49:
KC @ CLE [ML] (A) Apr. 21 Mon 4:05p PDT
KC @ CLE (B) Apr. 22 Tue 4:05p PDT (If Necessary)
KC @ CLE (C) Apr. 23 Wed 4:05p PDT (If Necessary)

[skyscrapers]

The loss on that third leg could be something close to a loss in a 4-game chase, no?

It will be a little bit cheaper than a 4-game chase loss.

I'm going to do a full backtest on a 4-game chase to see if it's worth the risk.
If it proves to be more profitable then I'll consider to continue the system on a 4-gamer.

[ghost212]

You are backtesting system.
From you get archive lines for runline bets ?

[yoderlw]

Sky, thanks for your honesty. Guys lie about theIr record constantly on this site. You on the other hand just counted the Pitt series as a loss even though you, me and others following all won that series since we went with the RL bet. I appreciate your honest work! Big day today. Let's keep rolling! King Felix is gonna bring it home for us!

[TakingVegasMoney]

Sky, thanks for your honesty. Guys lie about theIr record constantly on this site. You on the other hand just counted the Pitt series as a loss even though you, me and others following all won that series since we went with the RL bet. I appreciate your honest work! Big day today. Let's keep rolling! King Felix is gonna bring it home for us!

King Felix to the bank fellas!!! Let's get one

[the scab man]

god this seattle bet could be a huge loss tonight lol but im on it lets go mariners!

[TakingVegasMoney]

Damn mariners made a huge error that inning. Allowed for an extra 3 to score. penetrate

[skyscrapers]

What a tease. Astros score then Mariners tie it then Astros put up 4. I don't see Mariners coming back now.

[TakingVegasMoney]

What a tease. Astros score then Mariners tie it then Astros put up 4. I don't see Mariners coming back now.

Nope. They have such a weak lineup. Cano had a chance w. 2 outs runner on second and didn't do anything w it. Bums

[SharkMerc]

The A bets seem to be doing better than B or C bets.. Do you have the records of the individual bets? Instead of series records?

[skyscrapers]

COMPLETED CHASES (Apr. 21 Mon)

Chase #26: LOSS (-18.48u)
OAK @ SEA [+1.5 RL] 1.72 (A) Apr. 12 Sat - LOSS (-1.39u)
OAK @ SEA [+1.5 RL] 1.73 (B) Apr. 13 Sun - LOSS (-3.275u)
HOU @ SEA [ML] 1.41 (C) Apr. 21 Mon - LOSS (-13.815u)

Chase #32: WIN (+1.0u)
MIA @ ATL [ML] 1.54 (A) Apr. 21 Mon - WIN (+1.0u)

Chase #45: WIN (+1.0u)
CIN @ CHC [+1.5 RL] 1.73 (A) Apr. 20 Sun - LOSS (-1.37u)
ARI @ CHC [ML] 1.92 (B) Apr. 21 Mon - WIN (+2.37u)

Chase #49: WIN (+1.0u)
KC @ CLE [ML] 1.70 (A) Apr. 21 Mon - WIN (+1.0u)

Record: (40-3) +1.325u
Season High: +26.305u

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
ACTIVE CHASES:

Chase #18:
HOU @ TOR [ML] 1.51 (A) Apr. 10 Thu - LOSS (-1.96u)
BAL @ TOR [ML] (B) Apr. 22 Tue 4:05p PDT
BAL @ TOR (C) Apr. 23 Wed 4:05p PDT (If Necessary)

Chase #47:
NYY @ TB [ML] 1.77 (A) Apr. 20 Sun - LOSS (-1.3u)
MIN @ TB [ML] (B) Apr. 22 Tue 4:10p PDT
MIN @ TB (C) Apr. 23 Wed 4:10p PDT (If Necessary)

Chase #48:
BAL @ BOS [ML] 1.65 (A) Apr. 21 Mon - LOSS (-1.54u)
NYY @ BOS [ML] (B) Apr. 22 Tue 4:10p PDT
NYY @ BOS (C) Apr. 23 Wed 4:05p PDT (If Necessary)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
NEW CHASES: (Beginning on or after Apr. 22 Tue)

Chase #33:
PIT @ STL (A) Apr. 25 Fri 5:15p PDT
PIT @ STL (B) Apr. 26 Sat 1:05 PDT (If Necessary)
PIT @ STL (C) Apr. 27 Sun 11:15a PDT (If Necessary)

Chase #39:
DET @ MIN (A) Apr. 25 Fri 5:10p PDT
DET @ MIN (B) Apr. 26 Sat 11:10a PDT (If Necessary)
DET @ MIN (C) Apr. 27 Sun 11:10a PDT (If Necessary)

Chase #50:
CIN @ PIT [??] (A) Apr. 22 Tue 4:05p PDT
CIN @ PIT (B) Apr. 23 Wed 4:05p PDT (If Necessary)
CIN @ PIT (C) Apr. 24 Thu 9:35a PDT (If Necessary)

Chase #51:
SF @ COL [+1.5 RL] (A) Apr. 22 Tue 5:40p PDT
SF @ COL (B) Apr. 23 Wed 12:10p PDT (If Necessary)
NYM @ COL (C) May 01 Thu 5:40p PDT (If Necessary)

[skyscrapers]

The A bets seem to be doing better than B or C bets.. Do you have the records of the individual bets? Instead of series records?

This should answer your question...


2014 Live Test (Weekly Update - Completed chases only)
- Live tests is based on the closing lines on Pinnacle as listed on SBR.

ATL (2-0)
CHC (3-0)
CIN (1-0)
CLE (2-0)
COL (4-0)
CWS (3-0)
DET (3-0)
HOU (0-1) (-10.695u [chase 12])
KC (2-0)
LAA (1-0)
LAD (1-0)
NYY (1-0)
MIA (5-0)
MIN (1-0)
OAK (1-0)
PIT (1-1) (-9.5u [chase 38])
SEA (0-1) (-18.48u [chase 26])
SF (2-0)
STL (2-0)
TB (2-0)
TEX (2-0)
WSH (1-0)

(A) (28-13)
(B) (8-4)
(C) (4-3)

[ML]: (33-2)
[+1.5 RL]: (7-1)