Keel's Baseball Action

[keel44]

April 15

Mets @ D-backs (+123)
A's @ Angels (-100)
Giants vs Dodgers (-105)
Tigers/Indians Under 8 (-110)

Overall: 30-20-2 (+9.64 units)

19-5 run

[keel44]

April 16

Tigers/Indians Under 8 (-120)
Giants vs Dodgers (-108)
A's @ Angels (+101)
White Sox vs Red Sox (+117)

[keel44]

April 16

Tigers/Indians Under 8 (-120)
Giants vs Dodgers (-108)
A's @ Angels (+101)
White Sox vs Red Sox (+117)

Overall: 32-22-2 (+9.64 units)

[keel44]

April 17

Giants vs Dodgers (-125)
Tigers/Indians Under 7.5 (-120)
White Sox vs Red Sox (-115)

[keel44]

April 17

Giants vs Dodgers (-125)
Tigers/Indians Under 7.5 (-120)
White Sox vs Red Sox (-115)

Overall 32-25-2 (+6.04 units)

[keel44]

April 18

Tigers vs Angels (-112)
Tigers/Angels Over 8 (-105)
Orioles @ Red Sox (+119)
White Sox @ Rangers (+145)
Giants @ Padres (-109)

[keel44]

April 18

Tigers vs Angels (-112)
Tigers/Angels Over 8 (-105)
Orioles @ Red Sox (+119)
White Sox @ Rangers (+145)
Giants @ Padres (-109)

Overall: 34-28-2 (+5.02 units)

[keel44]

April 19

Tigers vs Angels (-155)
Tigers/Angels Over 7.5 (-110)
Orioles @ Red Sox (+132)
White Sox @ Rangers (+112)
Giants @ Padres (-120)

[keel44]

April 19

Tigers vs Angels (-155)
Tigers/Angels Over 7.5 (-110)
Orioles @ Red Sox (+132)
White Sox @ Rangers (+112)
Giants @ Padres (-120)

Overall 35-32-2 (+1.72 units)

[keel44]

April 20

Tigers vs Angels (-142)
Tigers/Angels Under 9 (-100)
Orioles @ Red Sox (+138)
Giants @ Padres (-100)

[keel44]

April 20

Tigers vs Angels (-142)
Tigers/Angels Under 9 (-100)
Orioles @ Red Sox (+138)
Giants @ Padres (-100)

Overall: 38-33-2 (+3.72 units)

[keel44]

April 21

Orioles @ Red Sox (+148)
Nationals vs Angels (-112)
Tigers/White Sox Under 8.5 (-115)
Giants @ Rockies (+115)
Royals @ Indians (+138)

Sorry I posted the Boston game late, but I was fading them all week. It was always going to be the play.

[keel44]

April 21

Orioles @ Red Sox (+148)
Nationals vs Angels (-112)
Tigers/White Sox Under 8.5 (-115)
Giants @ Rockies (+115)
Royals @ Indians (+138)

Overall: 40-36-2 (+3.08 units)

[keel44]

April 22

Tigers/White Sox Under 8 (-105)
Royals @ Indians (-107)
Nationals vs Angels (-108)
Yankees @ Red Sox (+101)
Giants @ Rockies (-125)

[keel44]

April 22

Tigers/White Sox Under 8 (-105)
Royals @ Indians (-107)
Nationals vs Angels (-108)
Yankees @ Red Sox (+101)
Giants @ Rockies (-125)

Overall: 42-39-2 (+1.71 units)

[keel44]

April 23

Rockies vs Giants (-112)
Royals @ Indians (+114)
Tigers/White Sox Over 8.5 (-115)
Yankees @ Red Sox (+108)
Nationals vs Angels (-123)

[keel44]

April 23

Rockies vs Giants (-112)
Royals @ Indians (+114)
Tigers/White Sox Over 8.5 (-115)
Yankees @ Red Sox (+108)
Nationals vs Angels (-123)

Overall: 44-42-2 (+0.59 unit)

[keel44]

April 24

Royals @ Indians (+115)
Tigers/White Sox Over 7.5 (-105)
Yankees @ Red Sox (+105)

[keel44]

April 24

Royals @ Indians (+115)
Tigers/White Sox Over 7.5 (-105)
Yankees @ Red Sox (+105)

Overall: 46-43-2 (+1.64 units)

[keel44]

April 25

Royals @ Orioles (-100)
Yankees vs Angels (-120)
Blue Jays vs Red Sox (-116)
Tigers/Twins Over 8.5 (-110)
Rockies @ Dodgers (+132)

[keel44]

April 25

Royals @ Orioles (-100)
Yankees vs Angels (-120)
Blue Jays vs Red Sox (-116)
Tigers/Twins Over 8.5 (-110)
Rockies @ Dodgers (+132)

[keel44]

My computer was down this week end, so I will post late picks/results for Saturday and Sunday.

April 26

Yankees vs Angels (-110)
Tigers/Twins Over 8 (-110)
Rockies @ Dodgers (-100)
Blue Jays vs Red Sox (-105)
Royals @ Orioles (+125)

April 27

Rockies @ Dodgers (+140)
Blue Jays vs Red Sox (+102)
Royals @ Orioles (-130)
Yankees vs Angels (-170)
Tigers/Twins postponed

Overall: 54-48-3 (+4.97 units)

[keel44]

April 28

Rockies @ D-backs (+117)
Indians @ Angels (+113)

[keel44]

April 28

Rockies @ D-backs (+117)
Indians @ Angels (+113)

Overall: 55-49-3 (+5.14 units)

[keel44]

April 29

Rockies @ D-backs (-108)
Rays @ Red Sox (+157)
Royals vs Blue Jays (-137)
Indians @ Angels (+117)

[Capper1124]

[keel44]

April 29

Rockies @ D-backs (-108)
Rays @ Red Sox (+157)
Royals vs Blue Jays (-137)
Indians @ Angels (+117)

Overall: 57-51-3 (+5.14 units)

[keel44]

April 30

Rockies @ D-backs (+103)
Indians @ Angels (+140)
Rays @ Red Sox (-105)
Royals vs Blue Jays (-129)

If the Angels and/or the Red Sox win, I will be done fading them.

[keel44]

April 30

Rockies @ D-backs (+103)
Indians @ Angels (+140)
Rays @ Red Sox (-105)
Royals vs Blue Jays (-129)

Overall: 58-53-3 (+4.14 units)

[keel44]

May 1

Rays @ Red Sox (+145)
Rays @ Red Sox (+100)
Royals vs Blue Jays (+106)
Rockies vs Mets (-123)

[keel44]

May 1

Rays @ Red Sox (+145)
Rays @ Red Sox (+100)
Royals vs Blue Jays (+106)
Rockies vs Mets (-123)

Overall: 61-54-3 (+6.59 units)

[keel44]

This is my strategy/theory of sports betting. The angle I choose to make money will be to take advantage of teams' trends.

A team can only do 1 of 3 things in a fixed number of games. (1) They could win most of their games. (2) They could lose most of their games. (3) They could have a close to even mix of wins and losses.

The odds, of course, play a huge part of whether there is profitability or not. The odds reflect how good/bad a team is thought to be. What I am saying is: a "good" team needs a stronger winning trend in order for you to profit, if you were to follow that team, because the odds will be higher.

I choose to look for the opposite. I want to fade a "good" team or ride a "bad" team or ride/fade a "mediocre" team. Of course, "good" or "bad" team is relative to what the public thinks. That is easy to determine. This is to keep the odds lower.

I need to create a set of parameters to try and take advantage of team's trending to make a profit. I need a "tell" of some kind to determine when a trend will take place.

(1) Well, I just simply look at the team's recent performance and if they win/lose 4 in a row or 4 of 5, I will look for that to continue.

(2) It needs to be "opposite" of what kind of team they are: GOOD or BAD. Middle-of-the-road teams have no discrepancy.

(3) I bet on that trend to continue until a profit of around 4 units or until a "draw down" of around 4 units. Not a loss of 4 units, but a draw down. Of course, the max loss would be around 4 units.

I set up these parameters to give the team a good chance to come to some sort of conclusion. Eventually, they will profit me 4 units or have a draw down of 4 units. I will play no more than 5 teams at once. If they play each other, I will not double up. I will cancel the bet if they play each other with opposite trending.

*For point spread bets, such as over/unders, I look for a trend and bet the opposite to occur.

Here are my baseball results broken down so far:


(Retired betting trends)
Ride Brewers - (5-0)
Fade D-backs - (7-3)
"Follow the last result Over/Under" Nationals - (5-1)
"Follow the last result Over/Under" Tigers - (7-3)
Fade Angels - (10-14)
Ride Giants - (6-9)
Ride Marlins - (1-4)
Ride White Sox - (0-4)

*current trending bets*

Ride Rockies - (5-3)
Ride Royals - (5-5)
Fade Red Sox - (7-8)

[keel44]

May 2

A's @ Red Sox (+113)
Rockies vs Mets (-128)
Royals vs Tigers (-136)

[keel44]

May 2

A's @ Red Sox (+113)
Rockies vs Mets (-128)
Royals vs Tigers (-136)

Overall: (62-56-3) +5.23 units

Rockies are done for me +3.8 units, I believe.

[keel44]

May 3

A's @ Red Sox (+130)
Royals vs Tigers (-105)