MLB - Situation Plays - SDQL

**Alex Vaile** · 08-31-14, 03:25 PM

Originally posted by JMon

get it!

Yup thanks JMon. Good luck today!

**inZane** · 08-31-14, 03:37 PM

Originally posted by mdunlap3

Scary...but
Play BoSox

AD and season > 2010 and month != 7 and p:hits < 8 and pp:hits > 6 and 18 > ppp:hits > 2 and pppp:hits > 5 and 17 > ppppp:hits > 4 and 16 > op:hits > 6 and s:SRA < 6 and streak > -5 and SG < 4 and line < 190 and total < 10.01 and 1.9 > STDSWHIP > 1.2

Thanks, Bro...

**Alex Vaile** · 08-31-14, 04:39 PM

Originally posted by inZane

Thanks, Bro...

Beauty dog winner!! Nice job

**emceeaye** · 08-31-14, 06:21 PM

OK, so who's on Indians royals under?

OK, so what's consensus? who's on Indians royals under?

**hyahya** · 08-31-14, 06:26 PM

I'm on the indians and the under.

Damn, dodgers under, rockies under and chisox over were painful losses today. To have every one break against me was rough.

**JMon** · 08-31-14, 06:28 PM

Originally posted by emceeaye

I hear you...very frustrating, but all it takes is one query to tell you conflicting information...and I'm not sure there's any formula saying that teams supported by multiple queries with larger sample sizes will win more often than the one query pointingnin the opposite direction with a smaller sample size...its just a more cautious approach to do a no play.

and there you go! Subjective at best, been at this too long to think sample size vs spot plays should be construed as a better play. I like KC over.

**hyahya** · 08-31-14, 06:36 PM

Originally posted by JMon

and there you go! Subjective at best, been at this too long to think sample size vs spot plays should be construed as a better play. I like KC over.

I'm not sure I follow here. The assumption is that a consistent trend outlines a chronic mispricing in the line for that given set of circumstances and per statistical theory the larger the sample set the more statistically significant it is. This specific result has no bearing on this overlying argument.

**mdunlap3** · 08-31-14, 06:44 PM

3-1 on posted plays today. Angels just ticked over by 1.5, wanted that sweep.

**JMon** · 08-31-14, 06:53 PM

Very

Originally posted by hyahya

I'm not sure I follow here. The assumption is that a consistent trend outlines a chronic mispricing in the line for that given set of circumstances and per statistical theory the larger the sample set the more statistically significant it is. This specific result has no bearing on this overlying argument.

very true in the long run and not saying your methodology is incorrect, but things trend small or large and there is no reason. That's problematic, ...am I at the end of a trend? Yes in the long run sample size is the best, but trending spot should be noted

**hyahya** · 08-31-14, 07:09 PM

Originally posted by JMon

Very

very true in the long run and not saying your methodology is incorrect, but things trend small or large and there is no reason. That's problematic, ...am I at the end of a trend? Yes in the long run sample size is the best, but trending spot should be noted

Still trying to figure it out myself, only started using sdql after I was educated on its existence and use in the NBA SDQL thread. At this point I am pretty much indiscriminately firing on trends with no conflicts. Need to start triaging the picks more efficiently, not sure how to do that yet.

**Alex Vaile** · 09-01-14, 09:24 AM

Double post sorry!

**Alex Vaile** · 09-01-14, 09:28 AM

1 and 1 yesterday
107 and 86 overall
+ 13 .49 units

**Alex Vaile** · 09-01-14, 09:30 AM

First play : ( Bases )

Under 7 - 115 Mets vs Marlins

season > 2008 and H and 10 > month > 5 and SG < 4 and 5 > streak > -5 and 1 > tA(HR) > .7 and s:SRA < 6 and p:hits < 11 and 16 > op:hits > 4 and sss:SRA < 4 and rest = 0 and p:home runs < 2 and os:SSO < 11 and oss:SSO < 10 and os:SHA < 11 and 2 < oss:SHA < 11 and p:IT < 6 and p:LOB < 21 and s:SPT < 122 and ss:SPT < 119 and team != Rockies and team != Athletics and o:team != Blue Jays and (p:errors + pp:errors + ppp:errors + pppp:errors + ppppp:errors + pppppp:errors) < 10 and (op:errors + opp:errors + oppp:errors + opppp:errors + oppppp:errors + opppppp:errors) < 8 and (p:temperature < 91 or p:temperature = Indoors)

**mdunlap3** · 09-01-14, 09:41 AM

Play Rangers under

tp:runs<=2 and op:runs<=2 and conference=AL and A

**hyahya** · 09-01-14, 10:01 AM

30 670

phils

32 460

phils

41 270

under A's

28 500

mets

35 190

over cards

over brew

33 115

under phils

44 300

nats

38 68

bosox

27 210

A's

30 370

dbacks

23 160

under phils

under mets

8 1400

pirates

8.6 1200

mariners

36 165

under mets

10.6 1350

mets
dbacks

bosox

14 680

dodgers

19 220

indians

24 450

under royals

30 460

under phils

under A's

under royals

28.5 270

A's

31 540

under mets

50 95

bosox

31 140

cards

23 320

bosox

30 420

royals RL

29 430

mets
bosox

24 380

under dbacks

**JMon** · 09-01-14, 10:24 AM

Originally posted by hyahya

I'm on the indians and the under.

Damn, dodgers under, rockies under and chisox over were painful losses today. To have every one break against me was rough.

looks like you cashed the under on the suspended game

**JMon** · 09-01-14, 10:30 AM

emc nice job on the MLB contest. Looks like I fell out the top 10

**Alex Vaile** · 09-01-14, 10:54 AM

Second play : ( Dr.M )

Play Oakland - 137

team=Athletics and line <=- 140 and p:BL=0 and p:margin<=-2 and SG=1 and season>=2007

**hyahya** · 09-01-14, 11:06 AM

Originally posted by JMon

looks like you cashed the under on the suspended game

Kinda was hoping to cash the Indians also but given how my luck was playing out yesterday I'll take it.

**emceeaye** · 09-01-14, 11:10 AM

Originally posted by JMon

emc nice job on the MLB contest. Looks like I fell out the top 10

Thanks bud! bottom line is, we have SDQL regulars making the top end of the list... I have no idea how to use the points. I hope I can use the points somehow to make bets...dunno how to do so.

**emceeaye** · 09-01-14, 11:11 AM

Originally posted by hyahya

Kinda was hoping to cash the Indians also but given how my luck was playing out yesterday I'll take it.

good job on the under!

**Alex Vaile** · 09-01-14, 11:13 AM

I had the indians straight and live bet. Sucks they revert to the last inning completed. Vegas didnt want to pay out on another dog!

**Alex Vaile** · 09-01-14, 11:14 AM

Originally posted by JMon

emc nice job on the MLB contest. Looks like I fell out the top 10

There sure are lots of contests. I'm currently in a few and in the play of the day contest I'm on a 7 game run. Nice job u guys!

**JMon** · 09-01-14, 11:27 AM

Play Cubs

SDQL

site==home and 145>line>=100 and tA(SSO)>=5 and tA(TLOB)<=6.9 and 2008<=season and SG<4

Play Bos

SDQL

p:RMAX = 1 and p:margin = 3 and p:hits>8 and rest=0 and total>6.5

Enjoy your Labor Day gentS!

**mdunlap3** · 09-01-14, 11:31 AM

Play O's

SG=4 and HF and month<10 and p:W and pp:W and ppp:W and o:WP<50

**JMon** · 09-01-14, 11:43 AM

Play STL and Milw over

SDQL

(SG = 1 or SG = 4) and 1 < SGS < 5 and p:HR = 2 and op:HR < 3 and s:SHRA = 1 and os:SHRA < 2 and ss:SHRA = 0 and sss:SHRA < 3 and s:SRA < 7 and s:SSO > 1 and p:hits < 16 and tA(hits, N=10) < 10.5 and oA(hits,N=10) > 7.3 and tA(HR, N=10) > .6 and oA(fly balls, N=10) < 10.5 and tA(SO, N=10) < 8.6

**mdunlap3** · 09-01-14, 11:52 AM

Play
Under Phils
Under Padres

Simple little query, but O/U this season is 32/62.

total <= 6.5 and month > 6 and month < 10

**mdunlap3** · 09-01-14, 12:03 PM

Not sure if i'm going to play this or not..but this query shows a play on the Rats today. Any thoughts?

A and line<125 and line>-126 and po:runs<5 and ppo:runs<5 and pppo:runs<5 and op:runs + opo:runs>=15

**Alex Vaile** · 09-01-14, 12:08 PM

Third and fourth plays: (Bases )

Play Mets +112
Red sox + 163

p:inning runs p:R8 + p:inning runs p:R9 = 1 and SG < 5 and SG != 3 and SGS < 5 and 0 < streak < 4 and 0 > o:streak > -3 and (site streak > 3 or -10 < site streak < 0) and 5 < p:hits < 14 and 2 < p:TLOB < 10 and p:runs < 9 and s:SRA < 8 and p:HR < 4 and 0 < os:SSO < 8 and 4 < starter rest < 10 and s:SPT > 66 and o:starter rest < 11 and os:SPT < 116 and op:inning runs op:R9 < 2

**mdunlap3** · 09-01-14, 12:10 PM

Originally posted by JMon

Play STL and Milw over

SDQL

(SG = 1 or SG = 4) and 1 < SGS < 5 and p:HR = 2 and op:HR < 3 and s:SHRA = 1 and os:SHRA < 2 and ss:SHRA = 0 and sss:SHRA < 3 and s:SRA < 7 and s:SSO > 1 and p:hits < 16 and tA(hits, N=10) < 10.5 and oA(hits,N=10) > 7.3 and tA(HR, N=10) > .6 and oA(fly balls, N=10) < 10.5 and tA(SO, N=10) < 8.6

Here's one that points to the under in Milwaukee game. Just an FYI.

total>10 and total<12.5 and HD and line>104 and line<126

**mdunlap3** · 09-01-14, 03:13 PM

Ugh so brutal 9th inning loss in Braves under.

**inZane** · 09-01-14, 06:15 PM

Originally posted by mdunlap3

Ugh so brutal 9th inning loss in Braves under.

This and the Oakland over I missed, 5 fukkin runs in the 1st and 2 more the rest of the game...

**mdunlap3** · 09-01-14, 10:28 PM

2-2 on posted plays today. Braves game just ticked over by a hook in the 9th to make a .500 day.

**hyahya** · 09-02-14, 11:14 AM

32 160

rangers

29 450

pirates

5 1800

angels

A's

phils
cards
cubs

36 300

padres

28 500

marlins

30 460

phils

25 170

under rangers

36 100

yanks

32.5 350

padres

27 500

under marlins

37 320

A's

29 380

rays

33 350

cubs

7.8 1400

pirates

8.6 1200

tigers

25 180

under rangers

10.4 1350

marlins

jays

chisox

19 220

indians

rays

21 380

giants

30 470

under reds

under padres

32 330

jays

22 425

yanks

30 440

over chisox

23 800

over angels
over reds

32.5 600

phils

29 450

pirates

30.5 540

under phils
under nats

20.8 900

under padres

under yanks

27.2 680

phils

tigers

30 420

yanks RL

34 130

yanks

28.5 430

reds

**Alex Vaile** · 09-02-14, 12:29 PM

1 and 3 yesterday for -2.15 units
108 and 89 overall
+ 11.34 units