MLB - Situation Plays - SDQL

[JMon]

Thanks Jmon. Forgive my ignorance, but if you only go by win percentage of this query, it doesn't look great. What other information are you adding in there to determine this play?

Thanks.

Not a high Win % for sure, but "and season" this situation has only lost money twice ('06, '09). This year it is currently performing above its historical average (60% winners generating 10.11 units ytd). I also like that Rangers have been in this spot 7 times this year, going 1-6 on the fade. A bit of a bad line today, off from what this spot historically spits out (which makes me think twice), but I still think it's worth a play. bol if you play it

[JMon]

I know have posted this before with a logical explanation. Fade the Twins and Braves

sA(SHRA) <= .5 and p:BPRA >= 4 and line >= -140 and SG > 1

[JMon]

I wanted to see how a conference divisional team does that is a fav of -235< line<=-175; that is coming off a loss as a fav of more or equal to -200. To my surprise not very good, very small sample and it seems to be a predominantly a Sept fade, but these teams are 24-34 since '04, with a average line of -200.80 and generating a profit of almost 37units (63.7 roi) on the fade. Filters are game series 1 or 3 and not in month of May. Good number on the under as well. There is a play fading the Nationals today, but I will just monitor it.

p:line <= -200 and p:L and -235< line < =-175 and conference=o:conference and division=o:division and (SG=1 or SG=3) and month!=5 and total>7

[alex larson]

Thanks Alex and JMon for all hard work!

@Alex.....Are these 5 picks for today your final choice and how many units on each one?

@JMon.....When do you post your final choices for today?

Thanks in advance,regards to you!

[Alex Vaile]

I know have posted this before with a logical explanation. Fade the Twins and Braves

sA(SHRA) <= .5 and p:BPRA >= 4 and line >= -140 and SG > 1

Nice one JMon 15 and 1 with this query last 16. Good luck

[Alex Vaile]

Thanks Alex and JMon for all hard work!

@Alex.....Are these 5 picks for today your final choice and how many units on each one?

@JMon.....When do you post your final choices for today?

Thanks in advance,regards to you!

All my plays for 1 unit unless otherwise stated. Yup final card I may add 1 more but that's a lot of action for me. I gotta give most of my credit to Basesloaded. He has come up with most of these queries that I use daily. All of the people contributing are appreciated lots by me! JMon obviously has a knack for sdql and is helping us all learn and emceeaye, and anyone else producing helpful info. Let's keep it rolling.

[JMon]

Thanks Alex and JMon for all hard work!

@Alex.....Are these 5 picks for today your final choice and how many units on each one?

@JMon.....When do you post your final choices for today?

Thanks in advance,regards to you!

thanks Alex L. Sdql is easy, fun and very powerful. my plays are locked in for the day. Btw I don't post all my plays here, just a few I like and want share as well as help show/teach others how to use sdql.

[Alex Vaile]

Final posted plays:
Athletics -167
Athletics RL -1.5 +120
team= Athletics and HF and p:L and SG = 2 and day=Saturday
team= Royals and AD and p:W and SG = 2 and
day=Saturday

I just have a feeling As get it done today for Lester's first start. Also royals 1 and 6 last 7 vs lefties and Vargas coming off DL. Lot of. action today.

Heres more to support As:
Play On - All favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (OAKLAND) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) - American League, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games.
(45-5 since 1997.) (90.0%, +35.7 units.

[JMon]

Final posted plays:
Athletics -167
Athletics RL -1.5 +120
team= Athletics and HF and p:L and SG = 2 and day=Saturday
team= Royals and AD and p:W and SG = 2 and
day=Saturday

I just have a feeling As get it done today for Lester's first start. Also royals 1 and 6 last 7 vs lefties and Vargas coming off DL. Lot of. action today.

Heres more to support As:
Play On - All favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (OAKLAND) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) - American League, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games.
(45-5 since 1997.) (90.0%, +35.7 units.

Can you convert this into SDQL Alex? Let me know if you need help. At second look, it would not be active due to line parameter.

[Alex Vaile]

Can you convert this into SDQL Alex? Let me know if you need help. At second look, it would not be active due to line parameter.

That's right line moved quite a bit other way. Ya ill try to throw it in a query

[Alex Vaile]

Can you convert this into SDQL Alex? Let me know if you need help. At second look, it would not be active due to line parameter.

Yes I need help. Not sure what to do about batting average. Heres what I have
team=Athletics and H and -250 <=line<=-160 and BA<= .265 and op:STDSERA<=4.2 and s:WHIP<=1.1 and C? Any help appreciated

I just came up with this now

[alex larson]

@JMon...Do you support Indians, White Sox and Padres tonight? Correct? Regards!

[JMon]

@JMon...Do you support Indians, White Sox and Padres tonight? Correct? Regards!

those were the ones.

[JMon]

Yes I need help. Not sure what to do about batting average. Heres what I have
team=Athletics and H and -250 <=line<=-160 and BA<= .265 and op:STDSERA<=4.2 and s:WHIP<=1.1 and C? Any help appreciated

I just came up with this now

This is what I came up with 27-7 since '04 (start of db tracking). I put each parameter in sequence to the situation you presented. Note you have to use summative methods on BA and a starter's whip over 10 games.

-250 <= line <= -175 and Sum(hits@team and season) / Sum(at bats@team and season) <= .265 and o:conference = AL and o:STDSERA <= 4.20 and A(starter whip@starter and season, N=10) <= 1.1

Play On - All favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (OAKLAND) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) - American League, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games.
(45-5 since 1997.) (90.0%, +35.7 units.

[Alex Vaile]

3-3-1 yesterday for -.05 units. 2 ninth inning beats on totals
61 and 44 overall
+12.03 units

[Alex Vaile]

This is what I came up with 27-7 since '04 (start of db tracking). I put each parameter in sequence to the situation you presented. Note you have to use summative methods on BA and a starter's whip over 10 games.

-250 <= line <= -175 and Sum(hits@team and season) / Sum(at bats@team and season) <= .265 and o:conference = AL and o:STDSERA <= 4.20 and A(starter whip@starter and season, N=10) <= 1.1

Play On - All favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (OAKLAND) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) - American League, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games.
(45-5 since 1997.) (90.0%, +35.7 units.

Awesome! Thanks for the info JMon. Ya I wasn't sure how to do BA and the WHIP of last 10 games or really much of it so thanks.

[JMon]

ref post #750

Situation A: Fade a Sunday NL Getaway team

2014 tracking results on the fade: 20-31 (+702)

Last week (-118)

Fading (play against):

Brewers
Braves
Rockies

[Alex Vaile]

First posted play for Sunday:

Rockies +190
starter = Jorge De La Rosa and streak<=-3 and line>=-150 and season >=2013
From Dr.M
9 and 0 in this spot.

[JMon]

ref post #750

Situation B: Sunday Under Getaway

2014 tracking (ONLY) results over-under-push: 22-26-3 (+180)

Last week: (+200)

Play under

Brewers
Rangers
Mariners
Angels
Rockies
Twins

geez, a good number of plays this is spitting out today and at first glance not sure if I like any of them..lol

[emceeaye]

Yes I need help. Not sure what to do about batting average. Heres what I have
team=Athletics and H and -250 <=line<=-160 and BA<= .265 and op:STDSERA<=4.2 and s:WHIP<=1.1 and C? Any help appreciated

I just came up with this now

A little different than Jmon's query with slightly better results, but not sure what exactly is different:
-250 <= line <= -175 and tS(hits) / tS(at bats) <= .265 and o:STDSERA <= 4.20 and conference = AL and A(SWHIP@starter and season, N=10)<= 1.10 and season>1997

[JMon]

A little different than Jmon's query with slightly better results, but not sure what exactly is different:
-250 <= line <= -175 and tS(hits) / tS(at bats) <= .265 and o:STDSERA <= 4.20 and conference = AL and A(SWHIP@starter and season, N=10)<= 1.10 and season>1997

You are probably right, I misunderstood the description and put the opponent as AL conference, whereas you put the querying team as AL .

[JMon]

you guys remember a while back when I depicted home field advantage in MLB is on the weekends? Juicy fades, but apparently for good reason. Solid results this year and on a heater.

site==away and D and (day=Sunday or day=Saturday) and (SG=2 or SG=3 or SG=4) and 200>=line>140

[Alex Vaile]

I have another Good stat here that I cant seem to replicate in sdql. I thought it would play just like yesterday's As query.
Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (MINNESOTA) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against an excellent starting pitcher (ERA <=3.20) - American League, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games.
(51-15 over the last 5 seasons.)
So the play is White Sox but here is what I have. Can u guys help me smooth it out.
150 >= line and Sum(hits@team and season) / Sum(at bats@team and season)<= .265 and o:STDSERA <= 3.20 and conference = AL and A(SWHIP@starter and season, N=10) <= 1.10 and season > 2009
it doesnt produce 51 and 15 for me

[JMon]

First posted play for Sunday:

Rockies +190
starter = Jorge De La Rosa and streak<=-3 and line>=-150 and season >=2013
From Dr.M
9 and 0 in this spot.

Not touching this game, but interesting here when Tigers are going for a 3 game sweep at home; starting Sanchez (0-4)

H and p:W and pp:W and SG=SGS=SG=3 and team=Tigers and starter=Anibal Sanchez

[Alex Vaile]

you guys remember a while back when I depicted home field advantage in MLB is on the weekends? Juicy fades, but apparently for good reason. Solid results this year and on a heater.

site==away and D and (day=Sunday or day=Saturday) and (SG=2 or SG=3 or SG=4) and 200>=line>140

Quite a result for home teams!

[JMon]

I have another Good stat here that I cant seem to replicate in sdql. I thought it would play just like yesterday's As query.
Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (MINNESOTA) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against an excellent starting pitcher (ERA <=3.20) - American League, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games.
(51-15 over the last 5 seasons.)
So the play is White Sox but here is what I have. Can u guys help me smooth it out.
150 >= line and Sum(hits@team and season) / Sum(at bats@team and season)<= .265 and o:STDSERA <= 3.20 and conference = AL and A(SWHIP@starter and season, N=10) <= 1.10 and season > 2009
it doesnt produce 51 and 15 for me

getting 1-10 on the fade, dogs of 150 are more is line>=150 and asking for a road team, those where the only things it appears you had wrong.

[Alex Vaile]

Second posted play:

Under 7 -110 Rangers vs Indians
One of my fav Bases queries:

season > 2008 and H and 10 > month > 5 and SG < 4 and 5 > streak > -5 and 1 > tA(HR) > .7 and s:SRA < 6 and p:hits < 11 and 16 > op:hits > 4 and sss:SRA < 4 and rest = 0 and p:home runs < 2 and os:SSO < 11 and oss:SSO < 10 and os:SHA < 11 and 2 < oss:SHA < 11 and p:IT < 6 and p:LOB < 21 and s:SPT < 122 and ss:SPT < 119 and team != Rockies and team != Athletics and o:team != Blue Jays and (p:errors + pp:errors + ppp:errors + pppp:errors + ppppp:errors + pppppp:errors) < 10 and (op:errors + opp:errors + oppp:errors + opppp:errors + oppppp:errors + opppppp:errors) < 8 and (p:temperature < 91 or p:temperature = Indoors)

[Alex Vaile]

getting 1-10 on the fade, dogs of 150 are more is line>=150 and asking for a road team, those where the only things it appears you had wrong.

Ok cool so I was close. Thank u

[JMon]

Play Nats

a whopping 41-3, but it has lost this year!!!!, caution

p:site=home and site=home and op:site=away and p:line<=-140 and line<=-140 and 0 < op: line and total<=8 and po:runs+5<=p:runs and op:runs+5 < opo : runs and 10<=p:hits and 5<=op:hits and op:runs<=2 and p:errors<=1 and op:errors<=1 and 2004<=season

[JMon]

Play Oak, possible RL

Play AL team fav of <=-130 starting a pitcher with a era of <=3.20; against a AL team starting a pitcher with a era of <=3.50. Not in the month of Sept.

line <= -130 and STDSERA <= 3.20 and o:STDSERA <= 3.50 and conference = AL and o:conference = AL and 2008 <= season and rest < 4 and month != 9 and team=Athletics

[Alex Vaile]

Play Nats

a whopping 41-3, but it has lost this year!!!!, caution

p:site=home and site=home and op:site=away and p:line<=-140 and line<=-140 and 0 < op: line and total<=8 and po:runs+5<=p:runs and op:runs+5 < opo : runs and 10<=p:hits and 5<=op:hits and op:runs<=2 and p:errors<=1 and op:errors<=1 and 2004<=season

I like this one too. I feel Strasburg is in for a rebound. Nice one!

[Alex Vaile]

Play Oak, possible RL

Play AL team fav of <=-130 starting a pitcher with a era of <=3.20; against a AL team starting a pitcher with a era of <=3.50. Not in the month of Sept.

line <= -130 and STDSERA <= 3.20 and o:STDSERA <= 3.50 and conference = AL and o:conference = AL and 2008 <= season and rest < 4 and month != 9 and team=Athletics

I remember you posting something like this before. Fade the visiting pitcher with a solid ERA against H pitcher solid era. Seems logical. Also Kazmir been lights out in day games this year.

[JMon]

Second posted play:

Under 7 -110 Rangers vs Indians
One of my fav Bases queries:

season > 2008 and H and 10 > month > 5 and SG < 4 and 5 > streak > -5 and 1 > tA(HR) > .7 and s:SRA < 6 and p:hits < 11 and 16 > op:hits > 4 and sss:SRA < 4 and rest = 0 and p:home runs < 2 and os:SSO < 11 and oss:SSO < 10 and os:SHA < 11 and 2 < oss:SHA < 11 and p:IT < 6 and p:LOB < 21 and s:SPT < 122 and ss:SPT < 119 and team != Rockies and team != Athletics and o:team != Blue Jays and (p:errors + pp:errors + ppp:errors + pppp:errors + ppppp:errors + pppppp:errors) < 10 and (op:errors + opp:errors + oppp:errors + opppp:errors + oppppp:errors + opppppp:errors) < 8 and (p:temperature < 91 or p:temperature = Indoors)

going to play this one with you..and even a getaway under play

team=Indians and HD and po:BL=0 and ppo:BL=0 and SG>1 and date>=20060409

[Alex Vaile]

Third posted play:
I think courtesy of Bases.

Rays - 112

F and 13 >= p:margin >= 6 and s:margin > 0 and SG > 1 and os:margin<0 and tS(runs, N=9) > oS(runs, N=9) and tA(BPRA, N=10) < oA(BPRA,N=10)

Rays pitcher been on fire at home!

[Alex Vaile]

going to play this one with you..and even a getaway under play

team=Indians and HD and po:BL=0 and ppo:BL=0 and SG>1 and date>=20060409

Sounds good buddy, let's have a winning day!