MLB - Situation Plays - SDQL

[JMon]

You like the LAA under? right there on that CWS RL good luck!

Yes, I do

[Alex Vaile]

FYI...you can use shortcut 'RG3' instead of highligted above for a rubber game. good luck

Right on thanks ill try that going forward.

[Alex Vaile]

This is active again the LAA

Lets try it again...

[Alex Vaile]

Second posted play:

Under 7 -105 Phillies vs Nationals

H and month > 5 and season > 2009 and 1.2 > tA(BPRA) > .6 and 8 > (s:SRA - os:SRA) > -4 and (p:hits + os:walks) < 15 and month != 8 and s:SRA < 6 and os:SRA < 5 and 30.7 > (p:SIP + pp:SIP + ppp:SIP + pppp:SIP) > 18.7 and (op:SIP + opp:SIP + oppp:SIP + opppp:SIP) > 19.4 and total > 6.4 and pu margin > -6.6 and streak < 5 and o:streak < 6 and -8 < ou streak < 4 and os:SPT < 123 and team != Twins and team != Red Sox and o:team != Indians and (s:SSO + ss:SSO + sss:SSO + ssss:SSO) > 9 and (s:SSO + ss:SSO + sss:SSO) < 26 and (os:SSO + oss:SSO + osss:SSO + ossss:SSO + osssss:SSO) > 13 and (os:SSO + oss:SSO + osss:SSO + ossss:SSO) < 31

[azsportswin]

Second posted play:

Under 7 -105 Phillies vs Nationals

H and month > 5 and season > 2009 and 1.2 > tA(BPRA) > .6 and 8 > (s:SRA - os:SRA) > -4 and (p:hits + os:walks) < 15 and month != 8 and s:SRA < 6 and os:SRA < 5 and 30.7 > (p:SIP + pp:SIP + ppp:SIP + pppp:SIP) > 18.7 and (op:SIP + opp:SIP + oppp:SIP + opppp:SIP) > 19.4 and total > 6.4 and pu margin > -6.6 and streak < 5 and o:streak < 6 and -8 < ou streak < 4 and os:SPT < 123 and team != Twins and team != Red Sox and o:team != Indians and (s:SSO + ss:SSO + sss:SSO + ssss:SSO) > 9 and (s:SSO + ss:SSO + sss:SSO) < 26 and (os:SSO + oss:SSO + osss:SSO + ossss:SSO + osssss:SSO) > 13 and (os:SSO + oss:SSO + osss:SSO + ossss:SSO) < 31

I appreciate the work that you guys do in this thread and betting your plays, however, I will be the first to admit I don't understand any of the jargon/formula's. This one has me a bit befuttled.....this formula lists 3 teams, the Twins, Red Sox and Indians, yet the result is playing the under in the Phillies/Nationals game? I'm not really looking for an explanation, just more of a confirmation of this play. Thanks

[JMon]

I appreciate the work that you guys do in this thread and betting your plays, however, I will be the first to admit I don't understand any of the jargon/formula's. This one has me a bit befuttled.....this formula lists 3 teams, the Twins, Red Sox and Indians, yet the result is playing the under in the Phillies/Nationals game? I'm not really looking for an explanation, just more of a confirmation of this play. Thanks

within the sdql language, ! = not. Therefore, the creator of the query wants to eliminate those teams from tracking/results.

[JR007]

always appreciate the insight

[Alex Vaile]

1 and 1 today posted plays for a -.05 unit
58 and 39
+15.58 units

[Alex Vaile]

Yes, I do

2 days in a row winner!

[Alex Vaile]

First posted plays for Friday:

Oakland A's - 235
A's runline -1.5 -115
From Dr. M
Juicy play at your own risk BUT royals 0 and 19 in this spot, and A's are 20 and 0 in this spot! Good luck
team=Royals and p:W and p:M6=0 and A and line>=130 and season>2006
team=Athletics and H and line <=-140 and po:runs>=6 and C and date>=20110907

[JMon]

Alex did you sign up for the Aug MLB contest? Like to see some more sdql miners in there.

I finished in the top 10 in the July contest!

http://contests.sportsbookreview.com/mlb-sliding-home-1500-contest-4935/

[emceeaye]

First posted plays for Friday:

Oakland A's - 235
A's runline -1.5 -115
From Dr. M
Juicy play at your own risk BUT royals 0 and 19 in this spot, and A's are 20 and 0 in this spot! Good luck
team=Royals and p:W and p:M6=0 and A and line>=130 and season>2006
team=Athletics and H and line <=-140 and po:runs>=6 and C and date>=20110907

Here's a query that supports it:
HF and p:A and p:L and SG=1 and season>2011 and tA(W, N=13)>=.54 and tA(s:SRA + ss:SRA+sss:SRA)<=15

[JMon]

Damn lines got me a bit freak out today...anyone else????

[JMon]

My apologies (I like to give credit where credit is due), I do not recall whose query this is, but I do the like the Giants here.

note eliminate space : p :

A and (190>line>129 or 115>line) and 4.11>STDSERA>2.97 and conference=NL and (p:innings pitched-Starter: p :innings pitched)>=5 and total<10 and month<10

[JMon]

Average(runs@team and season)<=4.3 and p:runs<5 and pp:runs<5 and ppp:runs<5 and pppp:runs<5 and line>=-105 and conference=o:conference and month!=7 and SG<4

Play on Cubs and possible RL

This is a dog only spot, no logic what so ever, but it make money. Query is rather simple, let me know if anyone needs a english translation.

[JMon]

that's it for me. couple of dogs plays. see some big dogs biting today..laying low. prob take a small stab on the Det RL, just due to Verlander in interleague play. bol all.

[emceeaye]

Damn lines got me a bit freak out today...anyone else????

Yes, especially the white Sox game!!!!

[emceeaye]

careful, just found this...

First posted plays for Friday:

Oakland A's - 235
A's runline -1.5 -115
From Dr. M
Juicy play at your own risk BUT royals 0 and 19 in this spot, and A's are 20 and 0 in this spot! Good luck
team=Royals and p:W and p:M6=0 and A and line>=130 and season>2006
team=Athletics and H and line <=-140 and po:runs>=6 and C and date>=20110907

SG = 1 and site = home and p:HR = 1 and op:hits > 3 and day = Friday and pp:HR != 0 and op:HR < 5 and s:SHRA = 0 and os:SHRA < 2 and line < 120 and oA(runs, N=10) < tA(runs, N=10) and month < 10 and p:SG + op:SG > 4

[JMon]

Yes, especially the white Sox game!!!!

ya I had sox on the RL, but going to lay off. Getting this odd feeling for today's action. Just Cubs and Giants for me, small Det Rl. I have not played this less games all season. Really not confident, just hoping one of the dogs hits. what are you playing.????

[emceeaye]

ya I had sox on the RL, but going to lay off. Getting this odd feeling for today's action. Just Cubs and Giants for me, small Det Rl. I have not played this less games all season. Really not confident, just hoping one of the dogs hits. what are you playing.????

Sounds like a good safe approach and trusting your gut!

Well so far I'm only solidly on Giants ML and possibly RL now that you posted your query supporting this one that may be one you posted recently:

A and Sum(L@team and season,N=7) >= 5 and line >= 100 and 54>=WP>=51 and o:WP<50 and 2008<=season

Speaking of dogs, I'm considering d-backs based on the following:

s:SSO = 2 and 3.9 < s:SIP < 4.5 and s:SHA < 9 and day != Saturday and day != Monday and (A or day != Sunday) and (A or day != Tuesday) and (A or day != Wednesday) and line < 185 and p:margin > -9 and p:runs > 0

What are your thoughts on it?

I'm also considering Cards/Brewers no score 1st inning based on Bases' set of queries he posted earlier.

I was on A's SU and RL but the query I posted above scared me away.

[JMon]

Sounds like a good safe approach and trusting your gut!

Well so far I'm only solidly on Giants ML and possibly RL now that you posted your query supporting this one that may be one you posted recently:

A and Sum(L@team and season,N=7) >= 5 and line >= 100 and 54>=WP>=51 and o:WP<50 and 2008<=season

Speaking of dogs, I'm considering d-backs based on the following:

s:SSO = 2 and 3.9 < s:SIP < 4.5 and s:SHA < 9 and day != Saturday and day != Monday and (A or day != Sunday) and (A or day != Tuesday) and (A or day != Wednesday) and line < 185 and p:margin > -9 and p:runs > 0

What are your thoughts on it?

I'm also considering Cards/Brewers no score 1st inning based on Bases' set of queries he posted earlier.

I was on A's SU and RL but the query I posted above scared me away.

I seen that one on diamondbacks.. but I am the type of person that likes to see team history in a situation even given the record.

And I don't miss around with props...!

[emceeaye]

I seen that one on diamondbacks.. but I am the type of person that likes to see team history in a situation even given the record.

And I don't miss around with props...!

Yes, makes sense and thanks for the tip. But when I add o:team=Diamondbacks to get team history in this situation, the resulting N is so small and the last time it was active was so long ago (2010), that the 3-2 record almost seems meaningless right? Or maybe I'm just not sure what part of team history you like to see...

BTW, congrats on your top 10 placement !!!!

[Alex Vaile]

Alex did you sign up for the Aug MLB contest? Like to see some more sdql miners in there.

I finished in the top 10 in the July contest!

http://contests.sportsbookreview.com...-contest-4935/

I didn't enter yet but I will right now. I m currently 10th in Run Line contest going on. Its a bit different

[Alex Vaile]

Damn lines got me a bit freak out today...anyone else????

Yes so many heavy favs and huge dogs!

[Alex Vaile]

My apologies (I like to give credit where credit is due), I do not recall whose query this is, but I do the like the Giants here.

note eliminate space : p :

A and (190>line>129 or 115>line) and 4.11>STDSERA>2.97 and conference=NL and (p:innings pitched-Starter: p :innings pitched)>=5 and total<10 and month<10

Im a giant fan but man they stink at hitting lefties last 2 months. I hope I'm wrong

[JMon]

Yes, makes sense and thanks for the tip. But when I add o:team=Diamondbacks to get team history in this situation, the resulting N is so small and the last time it was active was so long ago (2010), that the 3-2 record almost seems meaningless right? Or maybe I'm just not sure what part of team history you like to see...

BTW, congrats on your top 10 placement !!!!

I used to dial back, but current season only for me any more, which eliminates a lot plays. Now when I say current season, I am still using a situation that has been predictive over the last 10+ years, but just using current season results.

Trends will always happen when humans are involved; that's the beauty of sdql. The problem is when you find them; have they ran their course? Is the current line/total/situation reflective of past history? In a nutshell I look at successful situation and also only for the current year. I also look how a team/pitcher performs as well as line (vs. historic line) in the current year. Personal, players, schedules change too much to think otherwise.

[JMon]

Im a giant fan but man they stink at hitting lefties last 2 months. I hope I'm wrong

noticing your west coast avi ugghhh


now I know your 2 hours behind me

[Alex Vaile]

noticing your west coast avi ugghhh


now I know your 2 hours behind me

Im glad I was wrong on the Giants! Nice one.

[Alex Vaile]

0 and 2 darn As for -3.5 units. Always a first for everything when I bet.
58 and 41 overall
+12.08 units

[Alex Vaile]

SG = 1 and site = home and p:HR = 1 and op:hits > 3 and day = Friday and pp:HR != 0 and op:HR < 5 and s:SHRA = 0 and os:SHRA < 2 and line < 120 and oA(runs, N=10) < tA(runs, N=10) and month < 10 and p:SG + op:SG > 4

Wow what a query! Another winner I wish I saw this before placing my bets. Next time...

[JMon]

More times than not it is a good spot to fade a team off a big loss. Here we want to fade a AL team, with a line of no more than >=-200, off a loss of more than six on zero rest....filters 11 >= total >= 7 and SG < 4. Possible RL play, 60% ML winners this year, 10+u. Rangers 1-6 in spot this year.

Play Indians

p:margin < -6 and conference = AL and 11 >= total >= 7 and SG < 4 and line >= -200 and rest = 0

[emceeaye]

Bases query good for White sox pitcher in this situation

Here's a query I think by Bases. If not, sorry about lack of acknowledgement:

SG = 2 and H and 10 > (p:hits - op:hits) > 1 and 10 > p:margin > -2 and 0 < s:SRA < 5 and s:SPT > 77 and 6 > os:SRA > 0 and os:SPT > 83 and PP:season = season and (PP:SG = 3 or PP:SG = 4) and 1 < oA(doubles, N=10) < 2.5 and 2.8 > tA(BPRA, N=10) > .4 and oA(BPRA, N=10) > .9 and PP:hits > 4 and 17 > PPo:hits > 4 and pp:runs < 10 and oss:SHA > 2 and oss:SRA < 7 and 2 < s:SSO < 9 and playoffs = 0 and (game number > 89 or game number < 78)

[emceeaye]

More times than not it is a good spot to fade a team off a big loss. Here we want to fade a AL team, with a line of no more than >=-200, off a loss of more than six on zero rest....filters 11 >= total >= 7 and SG < 4. Possible RL play, 60% ML winners this year, 10+u. Rangers 1-6 in spot this year.

Play Indians

p:margin < -6 and conference = AL and 11 >= total >= 7 and SG < 4 and line >= -200 and rest = 0

Thanks Jmon. Forgive my ignorance, but if you only go by win percentage of this query, it doesn't look great. What other information are you adding in there to determine this play?

update: ok, I see your first comment on fade after big AL loss

Thanks.

[Alex Vaile]

First posted play of day: From Dr.M
Baltimore Orioles -110
starter = Miguel Gonzalez and H and s:A and s:QS and starter rest<7 and date>=20120801

[Alex Vaile]

Second, third, fourth, and fifth plays courtesy of my favorite Bases query:

Under 8.5 + 110 Rockies vs Tigers
Under 7 -130 Giants vs Mets
Under 8.5 -115 Pirates vs D-Backs
Under 7 - 105 Cubs vs Dodgers

season > 2008 and H and 10 > month > 5 and SG < 4 and 5 > streak > -5 and 1 > tA(HR) > .7 and s:SRA < 6 and p:hits < 11 and 16 > op:hits > 4 and sss:SRA < 4 and rest = 0 and p:home runs < 2 and os:SSO < 11 and oss:SSO < 10 and os:SHA < 11 and 2 < oss:SHA < 11 and p:IT < 6 and p:LOB < 21 and s:SPT < 122 and ss:SPT < 119 and team != Rockies and team != Athletics and o:team != Blue Jays and (p:errors + pp:errors + ppp:errors + pppp:errors + ppppp:errors + pppppp:errors) < 10 and (op:errors + opp:errors + oppp:errors + opppp:errors + oppppp:errors + opppppp:errors) < 8 and (p:temperature < 91 or p:temperature = Indoors)