Todays Action, 2009 M.L.B. Thread

[TodaysAction]

Sea -130
Col -130
KC +110
NyY -140
LaD +110
Atl/Fl u-8
Was/Mil o-10.5

[BamaBill67]

And thank you sir, GL to Fog, MexS, Shoe, therber and Curious also.....
One thing I like about this thread is that nobody really pushing any 1 team all the time. I know we all have a favorite but you just don't see it. We all have one favorite in common.....Benjamin

[Foghorn]

Hello Everyone, getting a late start. Hope you are all doing well. I have been doing pretty well lately with the unders, so here we go again.

Detroit @ Texas:

Detroit:
French pitching for the Tigers. They are being careful with him and in his 4 starts, he hasn't given up more than 2 runs in any one game. The Tiger bats are cold on the road for the past month or so. Too many AAA players on their roster and nobody is driving in runs. They are still 9-1 for the unders in their last 10.

Texas:
Last minute pitching change from Padilla to Mathis. This is Mathis' first start of the year, but he has been lights out in relief. He started a game on June 9th and ave up 4 ER in 5 innings. Since then, in 9 relief appearances covering 16 innnings he hasn't given up a run. Texas isn't playing up to their potential at the plate and as a team, they are 9-0-1 for the under in their last 10.

NOTE: Both teams for the year are 67-122 for the under.

PICK: Under 5.5 for first 5 innings (1 unit)
Record: 36-19-2 (+25 units)

Good Luck Guys, let's get er done.............

[MexicanStallion]

[COLOR=#000000! important]Mariners -112 (5.60 to win 5)
Mariners RL +175 (3 to win 5.25)[/COLOR]

[pocketlint]

Damn !!

TA ....that was unlucky with the Orioles and the Brewers.

Overall not shaping to be a good day for your picks.

This MLB wagering makes NHL look like easy pickings despite the upset game once in a while like when the Preds bludgeoned the Red Wings in Joe Louis . Overall it was great going!!

On the other hand baseballs getting rough very early. Is it July or is it just the system that needs tweaking?

[curious]

One of these days I am going to stop listening to the crackheads on here.

My capping approach is very simple. I look for lines that have value. I don't look at injuries or lineup changes or weather or who is umpiring or any of that. I use very raw numbers to find the value.

Today I let some crackhead worry me about Padilla starting/not starting. I had the Rangers OVER and the Rangers ML. But, I listened to the crackhead and passed on the Rangers because of the "uncertainty". My opinion is that the linesmakers know far more than I ever could about the minutiae so I don't have to worry about it.

[curious]

Damn !!

TA ....that was unlucky with the Orioles and the Brewers.

Overall not shaping to be a good day for your picks.

This MLB wagering makes NHL look like easy pickings despite the upset game once in a while like when the Preds bludgeoned the Red Wings in Joe Louis . Overall it was great going!!

On the other hand baseballs getting rough very early. Is it July or is it just the system that needs tweaking?

This is a very tough year because you basically can't use the stats from pre all star break. Most of the teams are totally different post all star break. So, how do you cap them?

Take the Indians for example. Their pre all star break stats are useless.

I am adding a filter on post all star break, past 10 days, and past 5 days to my capping programs and will heavily weight these over the season stats. I think that might help.

[therber2]

Results from the 27th

CWS/MIN 9 +105 (1 unit)
DET/TEX 9.5 -110 (1 unit)
PIT/SFO 7 -115 (1 unit)
SDO/CIN 10 -120 (1 unit)
WAS/MIL 9.5 -105 (1 unit)
LAD/STL 7.5 -110 (1 unit)
OAK/BOS 8.5 +105 (1 unit)
Arizona +104 (2.5 units)
Arizona RRL -1.5 (+200) (.5 units)
Mets +148 (1 unit)
Dodgers +150 (1.5 units)
Texas -1.5 +140 (1.5 units)

6-6 +0.98 units

[TodaysAction]

Part I

[TodaysAction]

6-6 +0.98 units

50% win rate and positive units, .

[TodaysAction]

One of these days I am going to stop listening to the crackheads on here.

My capping approach is very simple. I look for lines that have value. I don't look at injuries or lineup changes or weather or who is umpiring or any of that. I use very raw numbers to find the value.

Today I let some crackhead worry me about Padilla starting/not starting. I had the Rangers OVER and the Rangers ML. But, I listened to the crackhead and passed on the Rangers because of the "uncertainty". My opinion is that the linesmakers know far more than I ever could about the minutiae so I don't have to worry about it.

You've been around long enough to know to NOT let one (or a group) person (of people) talk you on or off a selection. The lines are what they are for a reason. Make correct selections, get paid.

[TodaysAction]

Part IA
TOR,
SEA,
TOR,
TOR & BOS,

[therber2]

Arizona +1.5 -110 (1.5 units)

Lot of big money was on the Cubs today. I was preoccupied, but wow; these guys are smokin!

[therber2]

50% win rate and positive units, .

You like? Hehe. The way I bet though 60% would have been a bit nicer. Thanks TA good luck with your plays. Shoot me an email; I've got a little somethin for you I think you might like. Surprise.

[TodaysAction]

ATL/FL,
AZ,
OAK/BOS,
BOS,

[TodaysAction]

MILW,
MILW,

[Foghorn]

ATL/FL,
AZ,
OAK/BOS,
BOS,

Hey TA, good luck on all your plays tonight, let's rock.......

Phillies @ Zona:

Phillie:
Hottest team in baseball right now. Happ is 2-1 in his last 3 with an ERA of 2.70 with a WHIP of 1.10. He has given up 5, 0, 1, 3, 2, 0 ,2 in his last 7 starts. Phillies own a 31-15 record on the road.

Zona:
3-3 on their current home stand, but are 10 games under at home for the season. Petit is not faring so well with a 0-5 record for the season. His ERA is 6.32 in his last 3, with a WHIP of 1.60.........

PICK: Philadelphia (1.5 units to win 1)
Record: 36-20-2 (+24 units)

Let's do it,,,,,,,,,

[therber2]

Hey TA, good luck on all your plays tonight, let's rock.......

Phillies @ Zona:

Phillie:
Hottest team in baseball right now. Happ is 2-1 in his last 3 with an ERA of 2.70 with a WHIP of 1.10. He has given up 5, 0, 1, 3, 2, 0 ,2 in his last 7 starts. Phillies own a 31-15 record on the road.

Zona:
3-3 on their current home stand, but are 10 games under at home for the season. Petit is not faring so well with a 0-5 record for the season. His ERA is 6.32 in his last 3, with a WHIP of 1.60.........

PICK: Philadelphia (1.5 units to win 1)
Record: 36-20-2 (+24 units)

Let's do it,,,,,,,,,

Hmm. Well I guess there is a chance we both might win on this game. I'm on Arizona +1.5

Never a good thing when we have opposing picks here, but we'll see if the game is tight at least.

[Foghorn]

Hmm. Well I guess there is a chance we both might win on this game. I'm on Arizona +1.5

Never a good thing when we have opposing picks here, but we'll see if the game is tight at least.

Hey Therbs, no matter what, good luck tonight. Maybe we will fall in the crack and both win..............

[TodaysAction]

Foghorn,

Belated thank you.

[TodaysAction]

Wednesday's posteds went 4-6-1 but earned 13.05 units. What a country.

[Foghorn]

Hmm. Well I guess there is a chance we both might win on this game. I'm on Arizona +1.5

Never a good thing when we have opposing picks here, but we'll see if the game is tight at least.

Nice Job........you didn't even need the extra runs. Do it again tonight.

[Foghorn]

Wednesday's posteds went 4-6-1 but earned 13.05 units. What a country.

Positive units at the end of the day, it's all good.......

[MexicanStallion]

July 30th
Mets GM1 -141 (5.64 to win 4)
Mets RL +161 (2 to win 3.22)

[TodaysAction]

Positive units at the end of the day, it's all good.......

Yes sir! Yes sir! Yes sir! Oh way, it's not season yet. Thank you.

[MexicanStallion]

Red Sox -375 (11.25 to win 3)
Red Sox RL -163 (3.26 to win 2)

[MexicanStallion]

Yes sir! Yes sir! Yes sir! Oh way, it's not season yet. Thank you.

Plan on following you in the NHL season. You did very well last year.

[TodaysAction]

BOS,

[Panekkkk]

Hey TA, how did you end up doing in NHL last year? Do you play systems or just cap games straight up?

[TodaysAction]

Plan on following you in the NHL season. You did very well last year.

one thing I caution everyone about it that past success does not always g'tee future earnings. That being said, trust me unless I drop dead during the season you'll make units/money.

--------------

Going to watch the OAK/BOS game, back later.

[Panekkkk]

Hah well said. I love the sport and live in Toronto. Having said that, I have yet to really bet on it!!! Can't wait till the season starts though.

[TodaysAction]

Hey TA, how did you end up doing in NHL last year? Do you play systems or just cap games straight up?

Good afternoon Panekkkk,

There's a thread in the Hockey forum. I ended up solidly on the black side of the ledger (positive). I have my way of doing things and have at least one 'thing' for the thread this upcoming season as I've back tested it, to date, seven seasons but want ten (and will have ten season's worth of back testing). Blows my freaking mind I did not think about this sooner. No problem, will use this too.

[MexicanStallion]

Sounds great TA. You do a lot of work and it pays off. I look forward to the NHL season and appreciate you sharing your plays. It has helped many.

[OperatorX]

all I know about betting on hockey is that puck lines are evil

[Panekkkk]

Haha puck lines are the devil I'll give you that.