Pluthero's 2013 MLB Thread

[Catchn_Picks]

thank you for your quick response..got it now...I will prob. lower my unit size to make it fit your methods...great season so far...classy thread...gl all

[Brebos]

Yesterday: 4-8; -10.60X I can't believe St. Louis took a beating like that. I'm a Locke fan, but I never saw that coming.
TTD: 133-105; +41.79X

Maybe I should keep track of how I do on specific days. That's the second Sunday in a row where I've taken a bath.

Maan I told you sundays are bloodbaths, you need to bet accordingly, bet the unexpected or get buried It's better to stay away.

[Pluthero]

Hey Ravensfan, I just looked over that game again. It's just that Tigers pen that worries me, but that line's pretty heavy. When I bet heavy on a team that's -250 or more that means I REALLY like them.

[Pluthero]

Maan I told you sundays are bloodbaths, you need to bet accordingly, bet the unexpected or get buried It's better to stay away.

When I get time I'm going to go through last year's thread and see if I typically got hammered on Sundays. I can't think of a reason why they would be more unpredictable than other days. They're typically travel days, but other than that it's not like ballplayers are like the rest of us schmucks that have to go work first thing Monday morning.

[RavensFan2k3]

Hey Ravensfan, I just looked over that game again. It's just that Tigers pen that worries me, but that line's pretty heavy. When I bet heavy on a team that's -250 or more that means I REALLY like them.

My biggest concern is that Scherzer has a 7.25 ERA in four home starts versus the Twins, plus the twins bats are coming around

[TankHankerous]

Pelfrey stinks, Tigers eat twinkies, Miguel Cabrera

All systems go

[Maddhatter]

When I get time I'm going to go through last year's thread and see if I typically got hammered on Sundays. I can't think of a reason why they would be more unpredictable than other days. They're typically travel days, but other than that it's not like ballplayers are like the rest of us schmucks that have to go work first thing Monday morning.

Sundays like you said are typically travel days and at times Coaches will rest some of their regular starters if they already locked the win in the series. Sweeps will still happen and so will upsets but due to it being the last day of the series, it will be perhaps be more unpredictable due to lineup changes. Just brainstorming here and not really saying Sundays are a stay away day by any means. I don't know if I do bad on Sundays vs any other day either.

[Pluthero]

4/29/13

Yankees -245 3.5X L
Tigers -230 0.5X W
Mets -165 1.5X L
Braves +125 1.0X W
Cubs -155 2.5X W
Royals -135 2.5X L
Pirates +120 2.0X L
Cardinals -135 1.5X L
Giants -105 0.5X W

That's all I got for today; hoping for a rebound. GL everyone!

Yesterday: 4-5; -13.7X
TTD: 137-110; +28.09X

That sucked. I'd really like to win a couple of units today so I can finish the month up 30 units.

[Pluthero]

4/30/13
Yankees -300 3.0X
Red Sox -130 2.5X
Tigers -245 2.0X
Braves -110 4.0X
Marlins +105 1.0X
Indians -102 1.5X
Cubs -145 1.0X
Brewers -145 1.0X
Royals -130 3.0X
Cardinals -15 1.0X
Giants -125 0.5X

[Swarles]

Baseball can eat my shit.

[Pluthero]

Somehow I left out:
Rangers -189 4.5X

i haven't capped the last 3 games. Hopefully I can get those done before they start.

[tatddy]

Have you calculated your profit on chalk plays over a certain number? Ie. where did you finish laying juice over -150 last year?

If not no sweat just curious. I respect your work but personally rarely lay this kind of juice.

[Pluthero]

I have not, but considering the losses I get hit with from time to time on heavily juiced games, I should. It's a good idea and when I get some time I'll do that.

[tatddy]

I have not, but considering the losses I get hit with from time to time on heavily juiced games, I should. It's a good idea and when I get some time I'll do that.

If you offer up points to calculate it from this year and or your thread from last year someone here might so it for you. People here love to work for pts.

[RavensFan2k3]

Where did you get Cleveland at -102

[EXhoosier10]

If you offer up points to calculate it from this year and or your thread from last year someone here might so it for you. People here love to work for pts.

Pay up bro
0-0.99u bets...3.04u…21-13-1…62%
1-1.99u bets...-4.43u…35-33-3…51%
2-2.99u bets...-30.67u…25-33-1…43%
3-3.99u bets...33.23u…34-18-0…65%
4-4.99u bets...34.97u…15-6-0…71%
5-5.99u bets...7.13u…7-4-0…64%
6-6.99u bets...-6.5u…0-1-0…0%
All bets...36.77u…137-108-5…56%

Totals are a little off, but close enough.

[Pluthero]

Pay up bro
0-0.99u bets...3.04u…21-13-1…62%
1-1.99u bets...-4.43u…35-33-3…51%
2-2.99u bets...-30.67u…25-33-1…43%
3-3.99u bets...33.23u…34-18-0…65%
4-4.99u bets...34.97u…15-6-0…71%
5-5.99u bets...7.13u…7-4-0…64%
6-6.99u bets...-6.5u…0-1-0…0%
All bets...36.77u…137-108-5…56%

Totals are a little off, but close enough.

Thanks man, but what about normalizing it for chalk? Say, Ev to -120, -120 to -140, -140 to -160, etc.....

[Pluthero]

Where did you get Cleveland at -102

It was on SBR this morning. My local had them at -105.

[tatddy]

Thanks man, but what about normalizing it for chalk? Say, Ev to -120, -120 to -140, -140 to -160, etc.....

Yeah exactly. Need to know if you're breaking even at least on these -150+ plays.

[Pluthero]

Adding...
Angels -115 1.5X
Rockies +125 1.0X
Orioles -118 3.0X

[Pluthero]

Yeah exactly. Need to know if you're breaking even at least on these -150+ plays.

Yes, and if anyone wants to do this for my 2012 thread that would be even better. My methodologies have remained relatively constant.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-betting/1740066-plutheros-2012-mlb.html

[tatddy]

Brave taking the Angels after they wasted 6 hours of their life yesterday and lost their leadoff hitter (guess it's even since Crisp is out). I think Parker throws a gem today.

[Pluthero]

Both pitchers are hard to predict this year. Richards just went 7 scoreless against Detroit 10 days ago with 8 punchouts. Then he got knocked around a little against Seattle. Parker's had the same type of year if not worse.

I watched a little of Parker's last start and I recall a lengthy discussion about how his fastball flattened out this year. I couldn't tell from the little I watched, but I don't remember him missing a whole lot of bats.

[tatddy]

Both pitchers are hard to predict this year. Richards just went 7 scoreless against Detroit 10 days ago with 8 punchouts. Then he got knocked around a little against Seattle. Parker's had the same type of year if not worse.

I watched a little of Parker's last start and I recall a lengthy discussion about how his fastball flattened out this year. I couldn't tell from the little I watched, but I don't remember him missing a whole lot of bats.

True but J Ham and Trumbo will cure what ails you when you're having trouble missing bats.

[Pluthero]

I see your J Ham and Trumbo and raise you...B. Moss and the Chronicles of Reddick.

[tatddy]

I see your J Ham and Trumbo and raise you...B. Moss and the Chronicles of Reddick.

Haha...can't argue that. I'll still take the home team in a coin flip after a 19 inning win. And...all I can see is Moss with a pie in his face...

[grim259]

What do you think about the Tigers and Rangers team runs over 4.5?

[Pluthero]

Haha...can't argue that. I'll still take the home team in a coin flip after a 19 inning win. And...all I can see is Moss with a pie in his face...

If it comes to that I'm definitely in trouble. Good luck tonight brother.

[tatddy]

If it comes to that I'm definitely in trouble. Good luck tonight brother.

I meant pie in his face from last night. I was at that game. You too pal. With you on Braves, Marlins, Indians.

[Pluthero]

What do you think about the Tigers and Rangers team runs over 4.5?

Not my forte, but my uneducated guess tells you that Detroit will sail over that while the Rangers could sink or swim.

[Pluthero]

I meant pie in his face from last night. I was at that game. You too pal. With you on Braves, Marlins, Indians.

Damn, you stuck around for that?!?! I'm crazy jealous man.

[EXhoosier10]

Thanks man, but what about normalizing it for chalk? Say, Ev to -120, -120 to -140, -140 to -160, etc.....

Missed the entire point of this exercise..

+230 to +145 … 5-9… -1.19u
+140 to +122 … 11-13… +11.78u
+120 to +100 … 20-21… -3.74u
-105 to -119 … 23-14 … +25.39u
-120 to -139 … 31-23 … -9.75u
-140 to -153 … 15-12 … -8.88u
-155 to -175 … 18-12 … +8.62u
-182 to -265 … 14-4 … +14.55u

Arbitrary breakpoints -- trying to move out of my apt. Do what you need with the file

Pluthero 2013.xlsx

[Pluthero]

Missed the entire point of this exercise..

+230 to +145 … 5-9… -1.19u
+140 to +122 … 11-13… +11.78u
+120 to +100 … 20-21… -3.74u
-105 to -119 … 23-14 … +25.39u
-120 to -139 … 31-23 … -9.75u
-140 to -153 … 15-12 … -8.88u
-155 to -175 … 18-12 … +8.62u
-182 to -265 … 14-4 … +14.55u

Arbitrary breakpoints -- trying to move out of my apt. Do what you need with the file

[ATTACH]56434[/ATTACH]

You rock, I just tied all my points up in bets, but I'll throw you a few if I win a game.

[Ron29301]

Missed the entire point of this exercise..

+230 to +145 … 5-9… -1.19u
+140 to +122 … 11-13… +11.78u
+120 to +100 … 20-21… -3.74u
-105 to -119 … 23-14 … +25.39u
-120 to -139 … 31-23 … -9.75u
-140 to -153 … 15-12 … -8.88u
-155 to -175 … 18-12 … +8.62u
-182 to -265 … 14-4 … +14.55u

Arbitrary breakpoints -- trying to move out of my apt. Do what you need with the file

[ATTACH]56434[/ATTACH]

Good info big guy.

[tatddy]

I meant pie in his face from last night. I was at that game. You too pal. With you on Braves, Marlins, Indians.