Smutbuckets MLB Conservative System '13

[Smutbucket]

Wutup Fellas! Another exciting baseball season is a week away!....getting on my grind this week...started this thread to track this little "system" I created last year. The "system" entails me running all the numbers (the ones I feel are important) for the days card and selecting 1-2 games based on a bunch of different situational angles/specific matchups that I find. Last season I started off hardcore with this system but then got sidetracked with other things and stopped putting the time/effort into the system that I needed to. anyways, any questions, advice, tips, situational angles, are welcome! any regulars from my threads wanna track/post your picks in here are welcome to as well. lets make big monneyy this season fellas!



heres the thread from last year:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-betting/1680496-promising-look-system-trackd.html

"System Final '12 Results:
ytd: 27-21 +11.75 units
leans : 9-6"

Unlike last year I will be sticking to small unit sizes, basically 1 unit bets with an occasional 2 unit bet and maybe even a 3 unit if Im feeling really crazy....will start day 1 of the season....


Im just starting to do my offseason research now, anyone got any new websites, stat sites, baseball info sites they been using lately and find a lot of value in? let me kno


PS anyone got a private fantasy baseball league I can join? only have 3 of 8 returning from my last years league....so looking for a new place but looking for a league where people regularly check and update and actually care about it

[joco]

got my plays in for tomoro bud.

padres +130
dbacks -110
pirates -120
brewers -145

and im thinkin bout kc/cws under 7.5

[jds07v]

I'm on the brewers and the kc/cws under

[Smutbucket]

dammit joco! u always bet against me, I txt you Im gonna take cubs, and now your liking pirates.... seems like you just fade me all the time....ha....usually ur right too....now ur psyching me out.....see a little value in padres but trying to be ultra-conservative this season

im gonna stick with my gut, im a big fan of samardizja, got a real nice strikeout slider...and this pitt. lineup struggles hitting them (anyone else use team batting stats from fangraphs, am I reading this correctly ?, it would be under the "pitch value" tab,) (i just started digging deep into all these extra tabs in fangraphs and they arent really labeled so im hoping Im reading that correctly)

pirates notoriously bad in april over last few years, also I think burnett had just a fluke good season last year, didnt really watch em at all last year but in the past when I have watched him he was terrible,

cant believe im doing this but going with the cubbies,


4/1/13
Cubs (+105) Risking 1 unit to win 1.05 units

[Smutbucket]

4/1/13
Cubs (+105) Risking 1 unit to win 1.05 units W

1-0 +1.05 units


will also be posting a few spot totals I will be playing......

Adding.

4/1/13
Oak/Mariners Under 6.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 unit

[joco]

good call dan

[Stokes36]

I don't know about the M's/A's under!

With the way Seattle was swingin in ST, that would scare me. lol

I think Seattle wins though.

[Poison-Nut]

Smut nice pick on the Cubbies. I didn't get the chance to bet it, but have been reading your post. I am tailing you Sea/Oak under. Lets kill this.

[Smutbucket]

lets get it....

as far as the bats in spring training honestly I dont give a damn about how they hit in spring training.....I didnt even look into that at all for my capping


anderson has always been good to me and impressed me, also hes played very well the last few times against this mariners....


think this will be something like a 2-0 game....

[Smutbucket]

2-0 score prediction correct in oakland and 2-0 on the season....nice opening day indeed...bout to start looking over tmrws card....will post in a couple hrs when I get done..


4/1/13
Cubs (+105) Risking 1 unit to win 1.05 units W
Oak/Mariners Under 6.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 unit W


YTD: 2-0 +2.05 units

[Smutbucket]

4/2/13
Blue Jays -1 (-128) Risking 1.28 units to win 1 unit
Cardinals (+105) Risking .5 units to win .52 units

[Poison-Nut]

Awesome start Smut. Keep it going. I am totally on board with Toronto w/ Dickey pitching and trying to get that bad taste out of his mouth during the WBC games. 50/50 on Cardinals though. I saw you went half unit, so I will bet small as well. I am a Diamondbacks fan though, but might think St Louis comes back with heavy hitting in the 2nd game.

[Smutbucket]

ya im a big fan of the new dickey, watched em a lot last year and he has some great stuff now, great pitch selections and his knucklers nasty. only thing that worries me a little is masterson usually starts off season strong (last year I had romero in opener vs clev, that was game that went 16 inninngs,) torontos bats were real slow and couldnt touch mastersons fastball so I am hoping thats not the case again this year but they got a bunch of new additions of course so I think theyll be fine, lean on the under in that game but not taking it.

Jaime is on my list of april studs, he just always starts off very strong, plus Im not a fan of cahill, I used to like him a lot a few years ago but the games I watched of em recently I feel like he just didnt have it anymore, really lost his control, walks a lot, i just think hes going to struggle and I think stlouis bats will come to life tonight.....

lets stack some paper

[befus]

Hey Danny-Good luck this season. I am playing a couple totals very lightly today, hope you are right on the Cards.

[Smutbucket]

4/2/13
Blue Jays -1 (-128) Risking 1.28 units to win 1 unit L
Cardinals (+105) Risking .5 units to win .52 units W

Last night : 1-1 -.76 units

YTD : 3-1 +1.29 units


thanks befus.....let me know if a total really stands out to ya, ill look into it....

cash cards....

[Poison-Nut]

I thought we had a good thing with Dickey, but read a lot on this site about how people were fading him. That wasn't good for us. I thought he would get it together for his 1st start with the new team and after the crap stuff he threw in the WBC. I guess not. Nice hit on the Cards though. I tailed you on them.

Oh well big card for tomorrow, any leans so far?

[Smutbucket]

batdsu, find a new job, no ones stupid enough to do that.....

ya I know, toronto bats just never came to life, i mean 3 hits on masterson, he was walking everyone with no control....I felt uneasy about it once I saw a few peoples threads about it, usually I wait a bit until right before game/day of to release picks just to see what discussions/certain peoples opinions (like stevenash) pop up in forums but Ive been too amped for beginning of season I been just releasing picks early, im gonna wait a lil like I normally do from now on and see what late info I may be able to find....

just glanced at card...gonna do some late night digging in abit....just from glance leaning mets, cards, whitesox, yanks, dodgers, ....gonna probably pick from one or 2 of those, once I look into games.....anyone feel strange about the total in arizona? I feel like it should be a lot lower.....lynn is a beast early on in season, atleast last year he was....

[Roadkill86]

Highest one of the day. Maybe someone thinks the teams are due to have a slugfest? I'm going under.

[Smutbucket]

4/3/12

Dodgers (-130) Risking 1.3 units to win 1 unit
Stl/Arz Under 9 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 unit

[Smutbucket]

Highest one of the day. Maybe someone thinks the teams are due to have a slugfest? I'm going under.

i think very low scoring game too

think its mainly just park/weather conditions combined with these arent really groundball pitchers....worse case scenario we have a HR or 2 and total tops out at 8....

[joco]

its hot in arizona. ball will travel

[joco]

im takin orioles +120
red sox +108
reds -125
giants +115

[Poison-Nut]

its hot in arizona. ball will travel

It will be 72 degrees around tip off. This is the perfect weather here right now.

I am with you on the Reds joco.

I like the Mets -141
Yankees -117
Reds -120
Nats -260

Reading on this board a lot of people are looking at the SF/Dodgers under 7, what do you guys think??

[Smutbucket]

I dont like it at all.....would it be surprising at all for lincecum to have a meltdown and get shelled for atleast 4 runs in the first couple innings....this scenario is very possible to me....

careful with the mets poison....look at batter vs pitcher history against that padres lineup....hes been smacked around in the past by them
Matt Harvey (nym) - throws R vs. sd - 7:10 PM ET - Citi Field

BATTER	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Chase Headley S	2	1	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	.500	.667	2.000	2.667
Yonder Alonso L	3	2	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	.667	.667	2.000	2.667
Cameron Maybin R	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.500	.500	1.000	1.500
Will Venable L	3	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	.333	.333	1.000	1.333
Carlos Quentin R	3	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	.333	.333	.667	1.000
Everth Cabrera S	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	.333	.333	.667	1.000
John Baker L	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.500	.500	.500	1.000
Alexi Amarista S	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000

[Smutbucket]

....games def going over......dodgers look awful.....looks like a rough night......going to bed early im freaking exhausted, gonna look at shit in the AM


....just got 2 more runs as I typed this.....joco where was your advice before I made the bet?! oh well live and learn

[Smutbucket]

hmm.....locking this one early........not much I like on the card tmrw but I love this one.....might still add another tmrw morning

4/4/13
Phil (+120) Risking 2 units to win 2.4 units


braves one of the worse hitting lefty teams in the league last couple years.....love my boy cliff lee too...havent watched em in a while...looking forward to watching this one

[Smutbucket]

4/3/12

Dodgers (-130) Risking 1.3 units to win 1 unit L
Stl/Arz Under 9 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 unit L

0-2 -2.35 units

[No coincidences]

hmm.....locking this one early........not much I like on the card tmrw but I love this one.....might still add another tmrw morning

4/4/13
Phil (+120) Risking 2 units to win 2.4 units


braves one of the worse hitting lefty teams in the league last couple years.....love my boy cliff lee too...havent watched em in a while...looking forward to watching this one

I really want to hammer this one too, Smut. Plus, a +126 is available at one of my books right now.

[Smutbucket]

ya at my book it just dropped from +120 to +105...

good luck

[Smutbucket]

im takin orioles +120
red sox +108
reds -125
giants +115

nice day joco .....give me an early pick tmrw, im itching for action but I dont really like anything on card but phils

[Poison-Nut]

3-1 for my picks, Those dam Yankees. It's OK Smut let's get them tomorrow.

I am tailing some of your picks, but I might stay away from this Phil pick. I just am not liking it at the moment, but could change my mind tomorrow.

I am leaning Seattle +135 tomorrow. I think this young kid Maurer has good stuff. I picked him up in my fantasy league team. IMO. Griffin has talent no doubt, but I just feel confident in Maurer right now.

[Smutbucket]

nice day too poison

Good luck with the Marniers.....I dont like to take new young guys I havent seen pitch like that,

I just saw gios nice win and HR, pissed I didnt take em, I didnt want to pay -250....sucks back in the day with the A's i could get em for cheap and he was always an under machine


Adding:
4/4/13
Angels (+105) Risking 1 unit to win 1.05 units

[joco]

....games def going over......dodgers look awful.....looks like a rough night......going to bed early im freaking exhausted, gonna look at shit in the AM


....just got 2 more runs as I typed this.....joco where was your advice before I made the bet?! oh well live and learn

Sorry bud I told u after the fact the ball flies in zona cuz it's hot out.

[joco]

Locked in Red Sox mets mets/pads over and cws so far. Leaning Detroit And pirates but ill probably stay away. I think the favorites come thru today

[Smutbucket]

mets again?! naw I think pads got this one....got this lil parlay i feel pretty damn confident about

Apr 04 01:10 PM EST - Baseball MLB - 953 San Diego Padres +135 for Game - Pitcher Options: Action
Apr 04 07:10 PM EST - Baseball MLB - 957 Philadelphia Phillies +110 for Game - Pitcher Options: Action
Apr 04 07:10 PM EST - Baseball MLB - 958 Philadelphia Phillies / Atlanta Braves Under 6½ -120 for Game - Pitcher Options: Cliff Lee -L must start / Kris Medlen -R must start
Apr 04 01:10 PM EST - Baseball MLB - 959 Detroit Tigers -150 for Game - Pitcher Options: Action
Apr 04 12:35 PM EST - Baseball MLB - 971 Los Angeles Angels +105 for Game - Pitcher Options: Action
5 Team Parlay	10.00	299.12