I do use a model and it takes about an hour or so every morning. Basically so many picks qualify because when I did it last season for the first time (not posted on here) I thought about only betting the best ones but since everything made money I just went with betting everything it spit out. Now for this year I've refined it a little bit by doing a little weeding, but lots of plays still make the cut and I'm up units so with each passing season I'll find out what works and what doesn't and try to find the best way possible for it to work. I do separate it into 1 and 2 unit bets so I do bet more on the stronger ones my model comes up with.
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Comment -
9-13 for -4.59 units
YTD: 779-698-32
UNITS: +18.57Comment -
Plays for 7/8
2 UNITS
TB -147
NYM -110
CIN/MIL U8 +105
TEX/BAL U8.5 +105
BOS/SEA O6.5 -115
1 UNIT
CIN -137
NYM/SF O6.5 +100
LAD -105
LAD/ARI O8.5 -115
SD -140
COL/SD O7.5 +100
BAL -108
DET -154
DET/CLE O8.5 -107
MIN/TB U8.5 -120
SEA -117
PIT +100
OAK/PIT U7.5 -120
CHC +114
CHC/CHW U8 -110Comment -
11-9 +3.83 units
YTD: 790-707-32
UNITS: +22.40Comment -
Plays for 7/9
2 UNITS
STL (-1.5) -120
DET (-1.5) -120
TEX/BAL U9 +105
BOS/SEA O7.5 +105
1 UNIT
WAS +118
WAS/PHI O8.5 +100
HOU/STL U7.5 -120
SD -131
COL/SD O7 -101
NYM +117
NYM/SF U7.5 -122
BAL -122
KC +125
KC/NYY O7.5 -101
CHW/DET O8 +108
TOR +100
TOR/CLE U9 -115
SEA -131
PIT -117
OAK/PIT U7.5 -108
LAA -128Comment -
8-13 FOR -6.57 units
YTD: 798-720-32
UNITS: +15.83Comment -
Plays for 7/10
2 UNITS
ATL -142
CIN (-1.5) +100
CIN/MIL U9 +105
DET (-1.5) -120
CHW/DET O9 -115
TB (-1.5) +115
STL (-1.5) -120
WAS/PHI O7 -110
KC/NYY U8.5 +105
TOR/CLE U8.5 +100
BOS/SEA O8 -105
1 UNIT
NYM +172
NYM/SF O7 -110
WAS +117
LAD +101
LAD/ARI U8.5 -103
ATL/MIA U7.5 -110
SD -145
COL/SD O7 +100
KC +122
TOR +141
MIN/TB U8 -113
BOS -128
PIT -130
OAK/PIT U7 +100
LAA -120
HOU/STL O8 +110Comment -
17-10 for +4.52 units
YTD: 815-730-32
UNITS: +20.34Comment -
Plays for 7/11
2 UNITS
WAS -138
DET -152
TB (-1.5) -110
LAD (-1.5) +135
CIN/ATL U7.5 -117
MIL/ARI U9 -120
CHW/DET O7.5 +100
1 UNIT
CIN -104
WAS/PHI O8 +100
STL -120
ARI -133
SF -134
SF/SD U7 +100
COL/LAD O8 -105
MIN/TB U8 -115
KC +108
KC/NYY U8 -102Comment -
7-10 for -6.58 units
YTD: 822-740-32
UNITS: +13.77Comment -
New to this forum, and somewhat new to baseball betting. Interesting thread and thanks for sharing. I am curious, how does your method choose between playing the RL or the ML? Does it base it on EV or % chance to win?Comment -
Pretty much I just take the RL if the ML is too juiced like if a team is around or above -200 and I think there's a very good chance of covering the 1.5 I'd rather save juice and take that. But I have lost a lot of one run games this year, I'll have to go back and find out what taking the RL has done to my profits instead of taking the ML in those certain gamesComment -
Plays for 7/12
2 UNITS
CIN/ATL U7.5 -104
MIN/NYY U8.5 -118
LAA/SEA O8 -110
CHW/PHI 08 -105
1 UNIT
LAA -112
ATL -133
NYY -177
PHI -118
NYM +136
NYM/PIT U7.5 -103
WAS -185
WAS/MIA O7 +105
TEX +169
TEX/DET U9.5 -110
BOS +102
BOS/OAK O7.5 -105Comment -
8-6 for +4.32
YTD: 830-746-32
UNITS: +18.09Comment -
Plays for 7/13
2 UNITS
LAD (-1.5) +145
SF +104
TB (-1.5) -120
MIN/NYY U8.5 +100
KC/CLE U9 -122
LAA/SEA O7 +105
1 UNIT
CIN +104
CIN/ATL U7 +105
STL -121
MIA -125
WAS/MIA O7.5 +105
COL/LAD O7 -115
SF/SD O7.5 +105
MIL +115
MIL/ARI U8 -110
NYY -147
HOU/TB U8.5 -110
KC +128
TEX +150
TEX/DET O8 -102
BOS +112
BOS/OAK O8 +105
LAA -102Comment -
yeah lol been a rough last couple weeks, thought not for the totals just ML's. I've been strongly considering the -1RL, but I'll keep rolling with the -1.5 for the sake of consistency and at the end of the year I'll see what could have been. But indications are that -1RL may be the way to go. Based on the results from this season so far, my best bets are strong totals and ironically 1 unit ml faves. The BR killer has been 1 unit dogs. Last season I hit 48-49% with nice plus money odds, this year is just shit something like 43-44%. Oh well, there's up years and down years and I can't complain too much because I'm up some units at least. Better than losing, even if I'm not winning a ton.Comment -
7-14-2 today for -7.04 units
YTD: 837-760-34
UNITS: +11.05Comment -
Plays for 7/14
2 UNITS
LAD -136
TB (-1.5) -125
CIN/ATL U7 +105
MIL/ARI U8.5 -105
MIN/NYY U8 +105
TOR/BAL U9 +105
HOU/TB U8.5 -112
LAA/SEA O8 -105
1 UNIT
ATL -108
MIL +141
COL/LAD U7.5 -120
SF +128
SF/SD U8.5 -105
STL -151
TEX +159
DET/TEX U8.5 -105
KC -102
KC/CLE U8 +102
NYY -220
TOR +114
SEA -125
CHW +153
CHW/PHI O7.5 -105Comment -
Not a great day today, will be around even for the year after the Sunday night game. Some observations from my model from last year and the first half of this year combined:
- all totals bets are up money, 2 unit ones much more
- 2 unit ML bets seem to be the main money makers on the ML side of things (even though down a bit this year)
- I should not have used -1.5RL as it took away a handful of wins, those wins alone would have made the risk of laying the big units worth it in the long run
so basically if anyone is following this so far all total bets are good and 2 unit MLs (SU, not RL) are good. The rest don't seem to be holding up well, even though they did ok last season.Comment -
Comment -
HI 'FUN
Yes you've hit a cold spell the last month or so. The 2 unit plays overall have been better, so I'm sticking with them
I have been basically tailing you, but just on the 2 unit plays and avoiding the huge Favourites. I'm playing with casual money $5-$10 per game on and off for the past month or so and managed to make about $50.
If its part of your record keeping, a breakdown , say once a week, of the 2 /1 unit plays and the sides/totals would be apreciated. If you have it, I'd also be interested in how your system is doing on 'dogs only. I don't expect you to do any extra work for my benefit though.
I want to thank you for posting your plays and wish you well in the "2nd half"
gl
barrytComment -
I forgot to post the results of sunday the 14th:
8-15 for -9.86 units...a terrible way to end the first half
YTD: 845-775-34
UNITS: +1.19Comment -
This past month has been miserable, but really only for ML's, totals have been exceeding my expectations, both 1 unit and 2 unit (but killing the 2 unit totals specifically)
Here are the results from the first half (the picks I've posted)
2 unit ML: 103-103, -32.63 units
1 unit ML: 340-311, -7.87 units
2 unit total: 141-117, +37.22 units
1 unit total: 261-244, +4.48 units
2 unit dogs: 21-25, specific units unknown
1 unit dogs: 119-159, specific units unknown
2 unit faves: 82-78, specific units unknown
1 unit faves: 221-157, specific units unknownComment -
My original plan for the season would be to play all ML (and not play RL) but mid season I decided to play RL and save juice. It turns out it cost me 12 wins as 12 of my RL picks won by only 1 run. Here's my adjusted record for what would have happened if I had played it straight ML (mega juice and all) for my 2 unit RLs...
YTD: 856-764-34 (not official, what could have happened playing SU MLs)
UNITS: +18.68 (not official, what could have happened playing SU MLs)
So basically, if I had kept my original strategy and played SU instead of RL I would have won an extra 17.48 units and my ML loss would be almost half of what it stands now. My totals stayed the same and is the only thing keeping me in the black. I will start up the second half and I will be playing all MLs if my model comes up with it, no matter the juice and we'll see what happens. I do know that I finished last year with totals being up 96 units, and I'm on roughly the same pace for this season. MLs are a different story... Last year I won 65ish on MLs, this year it looks like I'll be lucky to get in the black lol.Comment -
My second half plays will start up again next Friday the 26th.Comment -
"2 unit dogs: 21-25, specific units unknown" Its quite obvious this would be +ve as is the 2 unit totals, " 37.22" ,and that's more or less where I've been looking in your picks. So despite yur slide, sticking with these helped me. tx barrytComment -
Plays for 7/26
2 UNITS
MIL +132
PIT/MIA U7.5 -120
SD/ARI U8.5 +100
CIN/LAD O6.5 +105
TEX/CLE U8.5 -110
LAA/OAK U8 -113
1 UNIT
PIT -158
STL -114
STL/ATL O7 -115
ARI -131
LAD -174
CHC +144
CHC/SF O7 -110
TOR -235
HOU/TOR O9 -105
TEX +115
CHW +107
KC/CHW U7.5 +100
OAK -163
SEA -215
MIN/SEA O7 +100
DET -150
PHI/DET U8 -110Comment -
10-13 for -8.80 units
YTD: 855-788-34
UNITS: -7.61Comment -
Plays for 7/27
2 UNITS
NYM +139
PIT/MIA U7.5 -105
TB/NYY U8.5 -110
BOS/BAL U9 +100
1 UNIT
MIA +135
ARI -114
SD/ARI U8.5 -103
NYM/WAS U8 +110
LAD -122
CIN/LAD O7.5 +105
TOR -225
HOU/TOR O9.5
NYY -103
MIN +129
MIN/SEA U8 -115
BAL -120
CLE +103
TEX/CLE U7.5 -120
CHW -165
KC/CHW O7.5 +110Comment -
Getting killed here... 8-12 for -7.44 units
YTD: 863-800-34
UNITS: -15.05Comment -
Huge SABR guy here, but do you think it's a matter of putting out too many picks? There should be a way to filter the even better picks.Comment -
The 2 unit bets are the better picks, but so far this year it's only showing in the totals. My totals across the board are all up money on the year, and all my ML picks are down. I guess the ball hasn't been bouncing my way this year like it did last year. Maybe I'll go on an august tear and recover all my losses....who knowsComment -
Picks for 7/28
2 UNITS
NYM +136
TEX/CLE U8 -110
BOS/BAL U9 +105
LAA/OAK U8 -120
PHI/DET U9 -122
DET -230
1 UNIT
MIA -105
PIT/MIA U6.5 -105
NYM/WAS U8 -110
ATL -101
STL/ATL U7.5 +104
CHC +138
CHC/SF O7 +112
MIL +160
LAD +102
CIN/LAD O7.5 +117
CLE -104
TOR -175
HOU/TOR O9.5 +112
NYY +140
TB/NYY U7.5 +102
BOS -110
KC -101
KC/CHW U7.5 +100
OAK -150Comment -
Finally a good day. 16-9 for +7.34 units
YTD: 879-809-34
UNITS: -7.71Comment
