just wanted to get an early thread going for the season. last year we finished at:
final tally:
system record: 14-0
mod system record: 10-0
units: +14
mod units: +10
TOTAL UNITS: +24
the system kicks in week 4 at the earliest. rules are simple: if a team loses SU AND ATS 3 straight weeks, they become a play. we chase them for the next three games on a simple martingale chase. official rules state that favorites be played on the ML and dogs be bought to key numbers (3, 7, 10, 14).
MODIFIED rules: if teams with a .500 or better record (AFTER they qualify) lose SU AND ATS 2 straight weeks, they become a play. we chase them for the next three games on a simple martingale chase. i play short faves on the ML and dogs i buy up to 1.5 points.
i will not be tracking the middle strategy, but it's fun to play and has been profitable the last 3 years i have played it. it can be played from week 1. i have also been dabbling in the middle strategy during preseason and so far it has been profitable. middle strategy is simple:
if the posted spread or total can be middled at halftime by 10 or more points, fade the middle.
example for the middle system:
week 1: GB @ SEA, o/u 44.5, SEA -5.5
hypothetical halftime score: GB 20 SEA 14
hypothetical 2h line: o/u 21.5, SEA -1
this brings the full game's new line to: o/u 55.5, GB -5
total calc: 55.5 - 44.5 = 11 point middle
spread calc: +5.5 + 5 = 10.5 middle
bets would be: play OVER 21.5 and GB +1 -- you are betting that the game will not be middled
final tally:
system record: 14-0
mod system record: 10-0
units: +14
mod units: +10
TOTAL UNITS: +24
the system kicks in week 4 at the earliest. rules are simple: if a team loses SU AND ATS 3 straight weeks, they become a play. we chase them for the next three games on a simple martingale chase. official rules state that favorites be played on the ML and dogs be bought to key numbers (3, 7, 10, 14).
MODIFIED rules: if teams with a .500 or better record (AFTER they qualify) lose SU AND ATS 2 straight weeks, they become a play. we chase them for the next three games on a simple martingale chase. i play short faves on the ML and dogs i buy up to 1.5 points.
i will not be tracking the middle strategy, but it's fun to play and has been profitable the last 3 years i have played it. it can be played from week 1. i have also been dabbling in the middle strategy during preseason and so far it has been profitable. middle strategy is simple:
if the posted spread or total can be middled at halftime by 10 or more points, fade the middle.
example for the middle system:
week 1: GB @ SEA, o/u 44.5, SEA -5.5
hypothetical halftime score: GB 20 SEA 14
hypothetical 2h line: o/u 21.5, SEA -1
this brings the full game's new line to: o/u 55.5, GB -5
total calc: 55.5 - 44.5 = 11 point middle
spread calc: +5.5 + 5 = 10.5 middle
bets would be: play OVER 21.5 and GB +1 -- you are betting that the game will not be middled
and deciding if I want to run this system or not...