[Stringer Bell]

Developing strong beliefs about teams is a key for success in betting on the NFL imo. Teams really play to their identity and you can find ways to exploit them betting wise (i.e. Denver team totals 1st half of last season, who didn't expect them to score 30+ on those beautiful weather Sundays). Regardless, I'm always trying to improve my situation, whether it is doing more research, watching more games, or organizing my thoughts more efficiently. So in search of improving my process, I figured I'd ask for any seasoned help/wisdom from older people on here...

Does anyone on here take the time to organize their beliefs when it comes to betting? If so, what works for you? Notebook and pen anyone? Computer programs?

In specific in the NFL for example, things like player updates, depth chart/positional changes, and overall performance thoughts. Anybody regularly track these in an organized fashion?

Also, how do you approach Sundays on a weekly basis? Do you take time to recap the previous week? Keep up to date with the injury report? Look at the lines and analyze them to death?

I'm looking for any productive advice in order to streamline my process, so appreciate it. Looking to have a great season this year.

[2daBank]

most glaring thing i first noticed in your post was "do you take time to recap the previous week?"..imo one of the biggest mistakes i see most ppl make capping the nfl is putting far to much stock in how a team preformed the previous week as more than any other sport this a week to week league where what happened the week prior generally has little to no barring on what will transpire the next week..

obviously injuries have to be monitored but at the same time far to often a player being out is incredibly overblown in the ultimate team game, clearly there a handful of guys that might mean a ton but overall i think the perception of the importance is greater than reality, just as this a week to week league it is also a next man up league.. the best example i can think of off the top of my head wasnt even a injury but i think applies the same, when trent richardson got traded to indy last season the week cle was preparing to go to minny and play the vikings that line went from something like min-3 or -4 (forget exactly i think opened around 3) all the way up; to a full td with everyone pounding the vikings. i actually had no interest in the gm until this news broke and the line started going haywire, all i could think was "how the fukk is losing a guy that averages something like 3ypc making this team any worse?" dont get me wrong brownies were looking like dogshit in prior weeks as well and wasnt as if i was super excited about backing them but at same time minny was terrible with a god awful secondary and all a sudden this team is a td fav over anyone? ended up playing cle with the points and ml, they came out and put on a areal ass whipping in the 1st half, then being the browns it got close if i recall correctly but they ended up winning a shootout where damn near every1 was pounding vikings for a absolutely horrible reason imo (if you can find my thread from last year several of us had a bunch of discussion about that gm before pulling the trigger)..

im a pen and paper old school type cat (mostly cause im a borderline computer retard) when it comes to the number side of the capping i do,, far as organizing my thoughts i do that in my thread and it helps me greatly for several reasons, usually have a lot of discussion in my threads so that helps me get focused on 1 particular gm at a time instead of my a.d.d. ass jumping all around, plus i find that when i start combining my number research with writing how i believe a gm will play out typically if i have a really good feel for that gm i can reel off several paragraphs and others i will struggle painting the picture clearly so it gives me a idea that maybe it a gm i need to go deeper into or just pass on..

hope some of that made sense man, kinda tired and this kind of question could be answered a million ways with a lot of right answers (plenty of wrong as well) as there a lot of ways to skin a cat.. in my threads i try my best to articulate my thought process and how i go about coming to the conclusions i do, if you curious or wanna check out last years the name of thread is

"bankers throwin darts at the nfl all season (again)" . im sure you can find that one, not sure about the years prior to last but think if you read through the 1st 3-4 pages and maybe jump around and browse thru some of the rest not only will you get a idea of how i go about it but there a lot of pretty smart cats that contribute and are just as important to the thread as i am...