NFL Keel's picks

[keel44]

I have a little theory for picking the NFL. I did this last year for fun to check it out. It worked extremely well. I will try to describe it.

I basically try to pick teams with high motivation against teams with a potential letdown spot. I also try to get a line that is favorable enough for my liking. This theory will be for the first 6 weeks. The rest of the season will switch over to momentum/consistency. Teams who are looking for separation against teams who can't find themselves. I also want a line that is to my liking. I know this sounds kind of vague, but I'll try to defend my position on my picks.

All picks will be to win 1 unit. No over/unders.


I lost/deleted my spreadsheet from last year, but I was well over 60% with about 4-5 plays a week. I know this means nothing without proof, but I'd figure I would share that bit of info for those not so cynical.

Good luck to everyone

[keel44]

I like Denver for week 1, but the line is not to my liking. Denver has high motivation after losing to Baltimore in the playoffs plus they kick-off the season at home. Baltimore is in a letdown spot after winning the super bowl and losing a couple players. They are a veteran team who knows its a long season. I would take Denver if they were -4 or less.

[brigade125]

hey keel... good to see you again... so does this mean your taking baltimore....?

[keel44]

Week 1 non-official plays - I want to wait on line movement

Buffalo over New England - New head coach...home opener...youthful excitement against same ol' same ol'. I want Buffalo at +10 or higher

Chicago over Cincinnati - New head coach...home opener...new scheme against same ol' team. I want Chicago at -3 or less

Cleveland over Miami - New head coach...home opener...new scheme against average team. I want Cleveland at -3 or less

Green Bay over SF - revenge over playoff loss and home opener loss of last year against a team who plans to walk into the playoffs with no sense of urgency in week 1. I want Green Bay at +3.5 or greater

San Diego over Houston - new coach...new scheme...Monday night home opener against a team who plans to walk into the playoffs with no sense of urgency for week 1. I want San Diego at +4.5 or greater


*Plays will become official once the line I want falls into place. I may buy a point, maybe not.

That defines my motivations for week 1. In week 2, I will look for teams that need to right the ship who play against teams that might be a little over confident after week 1.

[keel44]

hey keel... good to see you again... so does this mean your taking baltimore....?

No. I only want to be on the motivated side.

[keel44]

Official Week 1 plays so far...

Chicago -3 over Cincinnati (-110)
Green Bay +4.5 over San Francisco (-110)
Cleveland -1 over Miami (-110)


I'll wait for the other 2 games

[keel44]

Official Week 1 plays.....lines are from sportsbook.ag

Chicago -2.5 over Cincinnati (-125) buy 1/2 point
Green Bay +5.5 over San Francisco (-110)
San Diego +5.5 over Houston (-110)
Buffalo +10.5 over New England (-110)
Cleveland ml over Miami (-125)

These are officially locked in. I waited for the lines I wanted in all my games. I only have 2 books to choose from.

[keel44]

Week 2 so far....

Locked in.

Atlanta -6.5 over St. Louis (-115)

Atlanta has motivation after loss and home opener. St. Louis could be in a letdown spot after a nice win from behind. That is how I roll.

Arizona +1 over Detroit (-110)

Arizona home opener...new regime...tough loss in St. Louis. Detroit feeling a little too good after a nice division win.

Tampa Bay +4.5 over New Orleans (-105)

*If the line moves to +6, I'll play this one again.
Tampa coming for their home opener after tough loss in New York. New Orleans looked real good, but could be in a tough spot. Division game.

[keel44]

Week 1 - results

Chicago -2.5 over Cincinnati (-125) buy 1/2 point
Green Bay +5.5 over San Francisco (-110)
San Diego +5.5 over Houston (-110)
Buffalo +10.5 over New England (-110)
Cleveland ml over Miami (-125)

+0.65 Unit in profit....onto week 2

[keel44]

Official Week 2 Plays

Atlanta -6.5 over St. Louis (-115)
Arizona +1 over Detroit (-110)
Tampa Bay +4.5 over New Orleans (-105)

That's it.

[SuckMyVickNoRomo]

Hmm very interesting Keel. I will definitely be following your posts to see how you fair. BOL

[2daBank]

Official Week 2 Plays

Atlanta -6.5 over St. Louis (-115)
Arizona +1 over Detroit (-110)
Tampa Bay +4.5 over New Orleans (-105)

That's it.

i guess at 6.5 dont hate atl but man rams are gonna be very competitive in this gm imo,love the bucs play but i dont see 4.5 anywhere as if i could get it id play that now..gl

[Jikos]

NYG this week fits your system perfectly. Coming off a loss they want to forget into their home opener against the most overhyped team right now. They're gonna go out there to win no doubt.

[keel44]

It would fit, but I don't like the line. I would take the NYG at +7 no less. I am waiting to see if the Vikings get a +7. I got my lines early from www.sportsbook.ag

[keel44]

I Should of won with the Packers. They let the cover slip away. As long as I make the right calls on motivation and/or letdown, I'll be fine early on.

[keel44]

Wow if the Chargers get pushed to +10, I'll have to go with that as well.

[keel44]

I am adding a play that just surfaced.

I am going Texans 1st half against Titans. The Texans were out of synch in the 1st half on Monday night. They will be darn sure to come out firing early. This bounce back type play fits perfectly with my motivation theory.

The Titans are feeling too good after winning on the road against Pittsburgh. They are on the road again. That is my letdown spot.

I can get the line I wanted for this at -6.5


Official Week 2 Plays

Atlanta -6.5 over St. Louis (-115)
Arizona +1 over Detroit (-110)
Tampa Bay +4.5 over New Orleans (-105)
Houston 1st Half -6.5 over Tennessee (-110)

I will wait to see if Minnesota gets to +7. They fit what I'm looking for as well.

[keel44]

Official Week 2 Plays

Atlanta -6.5 over St. Louis (-115)
Arizona +1 over Detroit (-110)
Tampa Bay +4.5 over New Orleans (-105)
Houston 1st Half -6.5 over Tennessee (-110)
Minnesota ML over Chicago (+220) risk .45 to win 1 unit

Minnesota fits my reasoning, but I'll take a shot on a rare money line bet. All of my bets are to win 1 unit.

[keel44]

Official Week 2 Results

Atlanta -6.5 over St. Louis (-115)
Arizona +1 over Detroit (-110)
Tampa Bay +4.5 over New Orleans (-105)
Houston 1st Half -6.5 over Tennessee (-110)
Minnesota ML over Chicago (+220) risk .45 to win 1 unit

A Minnesota heart breaker. ouch!

+1.45 units on the week
+2.10 units on the year

[keel44]

Week 3 locked in, but may add more...

Washington -1.5 over Detroit (-110)

Washington will now be ready and willing/desperate for a strong showing. Detroit has played well again, I think they are due for a bit of a dud.

I want Tennessee under -3 (may have to buy a hook)

[beringeyy]

Washington -1.5 over Detroit (-110)

Agree

[keel44]

Pittsburgh will be a play and Tennessee will be a play. I will wait and see where the lines are at to determine how I will bet these games.

*Pittsburgh is going back home very hungry for a win and Chicago has their first road game after 2 real nice wins.

*Tennessee let one slip away and they are playing their home opener and San Diego just had a real nice win on the road and are on the road again.

stay tuned....

[keel44]

Week 3 locked in, but may add more...

Washington -1.5 over Detroit (-110)
Tennessee -2.5 over San Diego (-140)
Pittsburgh +3.5 over Chicago (-150)

I hate betting with juice, but trust me later on in the season, I will bet some money line dogs to make up for it.

[keel44]

Week 3 locked in, but may add more...

Washington -1.5 over Detroit (-110)
Tennessee -2.5 over San Diego (-140)
Pittsburgh +3.5 over Chicago (-150)
Vikings -6.5 over Browns (-110)

Vikings home opener....hungry for that 1st win...Browns looking to find themselves

[ksnooksk]

Good luck sir. I'm liking this thread and your input.

[keel44]

Washington -1.5 over Detroit (-110)
Tennessee -2.5 over San Diego (-140)
Pittsburgh +3.5 over Chicago (-150)
Vikings -6.5 over Browns (-110)

Week 3: -2.7 units
Overall: -0.60 unit

very tough week, but it is still early

[keel44]

Week 4 locked in, but may add more...

Houston +3 over Seattle (-105) www.sportsbook.ag

Houston looks to finally play up to what they are capable of and Seattle coming off 2 strong wins in a row at home; now on the road

NY Giants +4.5 over Kansas City (-110)

Desperation on one side and over confidence on the other side. The Giants are better than this.

Atlanta -1 over New England (-110)

New England wins against cupcakes now on the road. Atlanta motivated for a win here to keep up in the division at home.

[keel44]

Week 4 locked in, but may add more...

Houston +3 over Seattle (-105) www.sportsbook.ag
NY Giants +4.5 over Kansas City (-110)
Atlanta -1 over New England (-110)
Philadelphia +11.5 over Denver (-110)

Philly struggled and is need of a win and Denver has been rolling. Can't pass up this line.

[rkellyatrecess]

You know why Philly needs a win? Because their defense sucks.

[keel44]

A team's motivation is a funny thing. I totally got it wrong with Cleveland and Minnesota. It was clear Cleveland was out to shut people up on giving up on the season, I should have seen it coming.

You figure each team to be equally motivated in every game. If you watch sports at all, it is just not so. I am looking for that little extra effort/focus versus a little bit of complacency. If I don't get a read either way, I don't bet it.

I figure Denver to be a little lax against the Eagles, I mean you can't whoop on everybody all the time, right? I also figure the Eagles to be charged up trying to correct their performance against K.C. playing against an elite opponent. I will take the +11.5.

[keel44]

Week 4 Results

Houston +3 over Seattle (-105)
NY Giants +4.5 over Kansas City (-110)
Atlanta -1 over New England (-110)
Philadelphia +11.5 over Denver (-110)

-3.3 units this week 4
-3.9 overall

[keel44]

Week 5

Cincinnati over New England (-110)
Chicago over New Orleans (-105)
Oakland over San Diego (+200)
Oakland +5 over San Diego (-110)
Colts over Seattle (+125)

[keel44]

Week 5

Cincinnati over New England (-110)
Chicago over New Orleans (-105)
Oakland over San Diego (+200)
Oakland +5 over San Diego (-110)
Colts over Seattle (+125)

Week 5 total: +4.20 units
Overall total: +0.3 unit

11-11-1 is my record

[keel44]

Week 6

New England -2 over New Orleans (-110)
Seattle -13.5 over Tennessee (-110)
Pittsburgh over New York (+110)

[keel44]

Week 6

New England -2 over New Orleans (-110)
Seattle -13.5 over Tennessee (-110)
Pittsburgh over New York (+110)
Minnesota -2.5 over Carolina (-110) emotional addition