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Tuesday, Oct 13
Delaware over MIDDLE TENN STATE by 6
The Sun Belt had Tuesday all to themselves last week, with the lone game being an 89-point track meet between Troy and Southern Miss. Well, the Belt can gedouttaheah tonight – and Wednesday night, too – as Conference-USA muscles into the picture. Sure, only three teams in CUSA have a winning record at this stage of the season, but nothing fuels a competitive effort like good, old-fashioned desperation. Like tonight’s meeting between two 2-3 teams looking to get their league seasons moving. We didn’t expect much from MTSU this year, not when the Blue Raiders were coming off back-to-back 3-9 campaigns while ranking No. 122 in returning players production, and the lone bright spot in their season so far has been a 27-20 upset of Nevada. They return home after being mugged on the road by Jax State and Kansas, outscored by a total of 78-13, hoping to add another ‘W’ to their 2-0 record in Murfreesboro. The Blue Hens also arrive off a pair of defeats and questions surrounding their quarterback’s availability. Nick Minicucci leads Delaware with 838 passing yards and five touchdown passes, but he missed the Liberty game with an injury (EJ Archield Jr. made his first career start in that 30-14 loss). Minicucci’s availability – and how the Blue Hens handle MTSU’s defense if he can’t go – will be worth watching. Meanwhile, the Raiders qualify as a legitimate case study in ambiguity. RB Antonio Martin has rushed for 385 yards and produced three 100-yard games in five outings (MTSU had only one player reach 100 rushing yards twice all of last season) The Blue Raiders defense has also forced seven turnovers and are +5 in turnover margin, ranking 12th nationally. But through it all, Derek Mason’s squad is losing the team net yardage -152 net YPG. Huh? We don’t want any of that, not with a team coming off a 55-0 shellacking at Kansas. As for Delaware, they have not lost three consecutive games as an FBS team, and we don’t see it happening here. Back the Blue tonight – Hens, that is – as UD improves to .500 in 2026.
Florida International over JACKSONVILLE STATE by 3
The nightcap features a showdown between two of CUSA’s three teams currently on the plus side of the W-L ledger. Following a 1-2 start, and now riding a three-game win skein, the Gamecocks appear on track to match or extend their three-straight 9-5 seasons. However, they will need to up their game tonight as their 73rd ranked offense and No. 53 defense are winning games against FBS foes by a mere 17 net YPG. This just may be the case of the wrong team being favored here – at least defensively – where the 3-2 Panthers are surrendering just 250 YPG, 4th best in the nation. Yes, you read that. In addition, through five games, they have allowed just 61 points – 12.2 per game. To keep pace, though, the offense must get more consistent play out of QB JJ Kohl. Yes, Kohl completed 12 of 21 passes for 115 yards in the Panthers’ 22-3 win over New Mexico State last week, but he’s thrown for only five TDs compared to seven interceptions. All things considered, we suggest you take the underdog with 95 YPG the better defense – Florida International.
Wednesday, Oct 14
Kennesaw State over MISSOURI STATE by 8
It’s penthouse-to-outhouse time tonight as we leave Tuesday’s FIU-JSU game behind and focus on the dregs of Conference-USA. Both teams enter at 1-4 overall and 0-1 in league play, but Kennesaw State’s season has been especially baffling. While the defending CUSA champion Owls followed their 47-0 season-opening blowout of West Georgia with four consecutive defeats, the last two losses were heartbreakers: 17-14 to Arkansas State and 27-26 to Jacksonville State. The loss to Jax State came despite KSU piling up 411 yards of offense, the eighth-highest total in program history against an FBS opponent, including 293 passing yards – the seventh-best mark in school history. Interestingly, Kennesaw has scored at least 24 points in nine straight regular-season Conference USA games. Missouri State returns home for the first time since September 19 riding a three-game losing skein. The first two of those defeats were competitive efforts, losing by six points to Marshall and ten points to SMU, but last week’s drubbing at the hands of this-close-to-bad Western Kentucky was a 34-13 embarrassment. It’s hard to pass on a Homecoming dog, off a loss seeking revenge, but the number weight heavily in the Owls favor tonight, especially knowing the Bears are just 1-10 SU and 3-8 ATS in games they allowed 24-plus points since becoming an FBS commodity last season. We seal the deal with KSU’s 3-1 effort in nationally televised Weekday CUSA games, and 8-2 success in its last 10 October games. You know what to do.
Western Kentucky over SAM HOUSTON by 3
We’re all about offering support to the downtrodden, even if it requires heaping shame and scorn on a team to hasten their improvement. Last week, we previewed Western Kentucky’s game against Missouri State with these words: “Folks, there is bad, and then there is Hilltopper bad.” At 1-4 and losing the stats by more than -140 yards per game, WKU was badly in need of a lifeline. Turns out that the Toppers responded to our criticism, dropping a 34-13 hammer on Missouri State for their second straight home victory. Most impressive was the previously anemic WKU offense piling up 464 yards against the Bears – 233 rushing and 231 passing. It was the Hilltoppers’ first win with more rushing yards than passing yards since November 2023. No such luck for the 1-4 Bearkats, who return home tonight after being leveled by Liberty, 35-3. Full disclosure: Western Kentucky’s two wins have both come at home, and they are a dreadful 0-4 SU / ATS on the road so far. However, the Playbook Black Book points out the fact that they are 11-1 ATS as a dog of fewer than 8 points against a sub .666 opponent coming off loss. With the number currently hovering around a pick, we’ll let the line point us in the right direction here. Watch it closely.
Thursday, Oct 15
Georgia Southern over OLD DOMINION by 8
So long, CUSA. Hello to the Sun Belt, American, and Pac-12 conferences. Both teams enter tonight’s lid-lifter at 2-4; in other words, this clash becomes a ‘loser stays home’ affair as far as landing a bowl bid. Georgia Southern is 1-1 in Sun Belt play after a narrow 27-24 loss to unbeaten James Madison. Eagle QB Max Johnson, who has thrown at least three TD passes in three straight games, threw for a season-high 343 yards against the Dukes. Old Dominion is 1-2 in the league and comes off a gritty 10-3 win at Appalachian State. ODU held Appalachian State to 158 total yards, the second-lowest total ever allowed by a Monarch defense, as the Mountaineers managed just 60 yards in the first half and only nine yards in the second quarter. Thus, the stage is set for tonight’s ‘irresistible force meets immovable object’ game: a Monarch defense coming off a historic clampdown against a Max Johnson-led offense that appears to have found its rhythm. Old Dominion has recently owned the series, winning and covering three straight by an average win margin of 22 PPG. However, when push comes to shove, the MIDWEEK ALERT kindly reminds us the Big Birds are winning the stats an average +213 net yards per game this season, while the Monarchs are losing the stats by -57 net yards per game. And just like that – the fog has lifted...
UAB over East Carolina by 3
Tonight’s combatants won’t have to worry about an executive order demanding their league change its name… not when it’s already called the American Conference (well, Conference of America is still a possibility, though we don’t see it happening). East Carolina (3-2, 1-0 American) brings a three-game winning streak to Birmingham after beating Rice, 28-12, as the Owls managed just 86 first-half yards against ECU, and didn’t earn a first down until midway through the second quarter. UAB (3-3, 1-1) is coming off a 38-13 loss at Memphis, where the Blazers led at halftime before (gulp) giving up 28 unanswered points after the break. That sort of effort will never win friends, influence people, or cash a ticket. The most recent seven-game winning streak in this series belongs to ECU, which outscored UAB 282-154 across those meetings from 2007 through 2013. However, the fire-breathers have won all three games at Protective Stadium this season. A deeper dive tells us these two teams are about as close as can be this season with ECU winning the stats an average +24 net YPG compared to UAB’s average +19 net YPG. With that revelation, we’ll lean to the host in a Homecoming underdog role with the better history and current form.
TEXAS STATE over Colorado State by 21
We close out Thursday’s card by heeding the famous words of Mr. Manifest Destiny himself, newspaper editor Horace Greeley, who is credited with the famous 19th century American expression linked to westward expansion: “Go West, young man.” Tonight’s matchup may take place in San Marcos, Texas, but it’s a Pac-12 contest between two conference newbies. By now we’re sure you’ve heard of the current coaching turmoil taking place at CSU since DC Tyson Summers was relieved of his play-calling duties in the first half of a 56-26 loss to Oregon State, then permanently removed from the coaching staff by Jim L. Mora. The AP’s Pat Graham reports Mora’s concentration this week remains on fixing his defense, not the firing of an assistant coach, considering his Rams have dropped three straight, and the defense has been ripped for 493.2 yards per game (second-to-last in the Football Bowl Subdivision). But even with such poor play by a not-so-Ram-tough stop unit, an offense that churns out 37.4 points and 448.4 yards per game has the ability to turn every game into a track meet. CSU has gone OVER the total in all four games versus FBS opponents this season, and this week’s number is the highest yet, opening at 68 before being bet up to 71.5. Don’t forget, the powerful Bobcats bring the nation’s No. 3 overall offense into this game, averaging 532 net yards per game. In fact they have topped 500 yards in three straight games. In the 49-35 win over North Texas, Texas State and UNT each had exactly 605 yards. However, Texas State piled up 565 yards and still lost. The Bobcats had an FBS program record for total offense, 34 first downs to San Diego State’s 13, and nearly twice the Aztecs’ time of possession – but two interceptions helped swing the 31-29 result. For what it’s worth, the Aztecs get our vote for ‘Biggest Frauds of the Year’ thus far in college football (see more on them in the final game analysis on today’s card). Colorado State is breathing right down their necks: In their first two wins, the Rams allowed just 18.5 PPG allowed; their last three losses? 52 PPG. Folks, with TSU’s high-volume offense facing a leaky CSU defense that could use a liberal application of Phil Swift’s Flex-Seal, you don’t need a road map to find the right side of this game.
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Tuesday, Oct 13
Delaware over MIDDLE TENN STATE by 6
The Sun Belt had Tuesday all to themselves last week, with the lone game being an 89-point track meet between Troy and Southern Miss. Well, the Belt can gedouttaheah tonight – and Wednesday night, too – as Conference-USA muscles into the picture. Sure, only three teams in CUSA have a winning record at this stage of the season, but nothing fuels a competitive effort like good, old-fashioned desperation. Like tonight’s meeting between two 2-3 teams looking to get their league seasons moving. We didn’t expect much from MTSU this year, not when the Blue Raiders were coming off back-to-back 3-9 campaigns while ranking No. 122 in returning players production, and the lone bright spot in their season so far has been a 27-20 upset of Nevada. They return home after being mugged on the road by Jax State and Kansas, outscored by a total of 78-13, hoping to add another ‘W’ to their 2-0 record in Murfreesboro. The Blue Hens also arrive off a pair of defeats and questions surrounding their quarterback’s availability. Nick Minicucci leads Delaware with 838 passing yards and five touchdown passes, but he missed the Liberty game with an injury (EJ Archield Jr. made his first career start in that 30-14 loss). Minicucci’s availability – and how the Blue Hens handle MTSU’s defense if he can’t go – will be worth watching. Meanwhile, the Raiders qualify as a legitimate case study in ambiguity. RB Antonio Martin has rushed for 385 yards and produced three 100-yard games in five outings (MTSU had only one player reach 100 rushing yards twice all of last season) The Blue Raiders defense has also forced seven turnovers and are +5 in turnover margin, ranking 12th nationally. But through it all, Derek Mason’s squad is losing the team net yardage -152 net YPG. Huh? We don’t want any of that, not with a team coming off a 55-0 shellacking at Kansas. As for Delaware, they have not lost three consecutive games as an FBS team, and we don’t see it happening here. Back the Blue tonight – Hens, that is – as UD improves to .500 in 2026.
Florida International over JACKSONVILLE STATE by 3
The nightcap features a showdown between two of CUSA’s three teams currently on the plus side of the W-L ledger. Following a 1-2 start, and now riding a three-game win skein, the Gamecocks appear on track to match or extend their three-straight 9-5 seasons. However, they will need to up their game tonight as their 73rd ranked offense and No. 53 defense are winning games against FBS foes by a mere 17 net YPG. This just may be the case of the wrong team being favored here – at least defensively – where the 3-2 Panthers are surrendering just 250 YPG, 4th best in the nation. Yes, you read that. In addition, through five games, they have allowed just 61 points – 12.2 per game. To keep pace, though, the offense must get more consistent play out of QB JJ Kohl. Yes, Kohl completed 12 of 21 passes for 115 yards in the Panthers’ 22-3 win over New Mexico State last week, but he’s thrown for only five TDs compared to seven interceptions. All things considered, we suggest you take the underdog with 95 YPG the better defense – Florida International.
Wednesday, Oct 14
Kennesaw State over MISSOURI STATE by 8
It’s penthouse-to-outhouse time tonight as we leave Tuesday’s FIU-JSU game behind and focus on the dregs of Conference-USA. Both teams enter at 1-4 overall and 0-1 in league play, but Kennesaw State’s season has been especially baffling. While the defending CUSA champion Owls followed their 47-0 season-opening blowout of West Georgia with four consecutive defeats, the last two losses were heartbreakers: 17-14 to Arkansas State and 27-26 to Jacksonville State. The loss to Jax State came despite KSU piling up 411 yards of offense, the eighth-highest total in program history against an FBS opponent, including 293 passing yards – the seventh-best mark in school history. Interestingly, Kennesaw has scored at least 24 points in nine straight regular-season Conference USA games. Missouri State returns home for the first time since September 19 riding a three-game losing skein. The first two of those defeats were competitive efforts, losing by six points to Marshall and ten points to SMU, but last week’s drubbing at the hands of this-close-to-bad Western Kentucky was a 34-13 embarrassment. It’s hard to pass on a Homecoming dog, off a loss seeking revenge, but the number weight heavily in the Owls favor tonight, especially knowing the Bears are just 1-10 SU and 3-8 ATS in games they allowed 24-plus points since becoming an FBS commodity last season. We seal the deal with KSU’s 3-1 effort in nationally televised Weekday CUSA games, and 8-2 success in its last 10 October games. You know what to do.
Western Kentucky over SAM HOUSTON by 3
We’re all about offering support to the downtrodden, even if it requires heaping shame and scorn on a team to hasten their improvement. Last week, we previewed Western Kentucky’s game against Missouri State with these words: “Folks, there is bad, and then there is Hilltopper bad.” At 1-4 and losing the stats by more than -140 yards per game, WKU was badly in need of a lifeline. Turns out that the Toppers responded to our criticism, dropping a 34-13 hammer on Missouri State for their second straight home victory. Most impressive was the previously anemic WKU offense piling up 464 yards against the Bears – 233 rushing and 231 passing. It was the Hilltoppers’ first win with more rushing yards than passing yards since November 2023. No such luck for the 1-4 Bearkats, who return home tonight after being leveled by Liberty, 35-3. Full disclosure: Western Kentucky’s two wins have both come at home, and they are a dreadful 0-4 SU / ATS on the road so far. However, the Playbook Black Book points out the fact that they are 11-1 ATS as a dog of fewer than 8 points against a sub .666 opponent coming off loss. With the number currently hovering around a pick, we’ll let the line point us in the right direction here. Watch it closely.
Thursday, Oct 15
Georgia Southern over OLD DOMINION by 8
So long, CUSA. Hello to the Sun Belt, American, and Pac-12 conferences. Both teams enter tonight’s lid-lifter at 2-4; in other words, this clash becomes a ‘loser stays home’ affair as far as landing a bowl bid. Georgia Southern is 1-1 in Sun Belt play after a narrow 27-24 loss to unbeaten James Madison. Eagle QB Max Johnson, who has thrown at least three TD passes in three straight games, threw for a season-high 343 yards against the Dukes. Old Dominion is 1-2 in the league and comes off a gritty 10-3 win at Appalachian State. ODU held Appalachian State to 158 total yards, the second-lowest total ever allowed by a Monarch defense, as the Mountaineers managed just 60 yards in the first half and only nine yards in the second quarter. Thus, the stage is set for tonight’s ‘irresistible force meets immovable object’ game: a Monarch defense coming off a historic clampdown against a Max Johnson-led offense that appears to have found its rhythm. Old Dominion has recently owned the series, winning and covering three straight by an average win margin of 22 PPG. However, when push comes to shove, the MIDWEEK ALERT kindly reminds us the Big Birds are winning the stats an average +213 net yards per game this season, while the Monarchs are losing the stats by -57 net yards per game. And just like that – the fog has lifted...
UAB over East Carolina by 3
Tonight’s combatants won’t have to worry about an executive order demanding their league change its name… not when it’s already called the American Conference (well, Conference of America is still a possibility, though we don’t see it happening). East Carolina (3-2, 1-0 American) brings a three-game winning streak to Birmingham after beating Rice, 28-12, as the Owls managed just 86 first-half yards against ECU, and didn’t earn a first down until midway through the second quarter. UAB (3-3, 1-1) is coming off a 38-13 loss at Memphis, where the Blazers led at halftime before (gulp) giving up 28 unanswered points after the break. That sort of effort will never win friends, influence people, or cash a ticket. The most recent seven-game winning streak in this series belongs to ECU, which outscored UAB 282-154 across those meetings from 2007 through 2013. However, the fire-breathers have won all three games at Protective Stadium this season. A deeper dive tells us these two teams are about as close as can be this season with ECU winning the stats an average +24 net YPG compared to UAB’s average +19 net YPG. With that revelation, we’ll lean to the host in a Homecoming underdog role with the better history and current form.
TEXAS STATE over Colorado State by 21
We close out Thursday’s card by heeding the famous words of Mr. Manifest Destiny himself, newspaper editor Horace Greeley, who is credited with the famous 19th century American expression linked to westward expansion: “Go West, young man.” Tonight’s matchup may take place in San Marcos, Texas, but it’s a Pac-12 contest between two conference newbies. By now we’re sure you’ve heard of the current coaching turmoil taking place at CSU since DC Tyson Summers was relieved of his play-calling duties in the first half of a 56-26 loss to Oregon State, then permanently removed from the coaching staff by Jim L. Mora. The AP’s Pat Graham reports Mora’s concentration this week remains on fixing his defense, not the firing of an assistant coach, considering his Rams have dropped three straight, and the defense has been ripped for 493.2 yards per game (second-to-last in the Football Bowl Subdivision). But even with such poor play by a not-so-Ram-tough stop unit, an offense that churns out 37.4 points and 448.4 yards per game has the ability to turn every game into a track meet. CSU has gone OVER the total in all four games versus FBS opponents this season, and this week’s number is the highest yet, opening at 68 before being bet up to 71.5. Don’t forget, the powerful Bobcats bring the nation’s No. 3 overall offense into this game, averaging 532 net yards per game. In fact they have topped 500 yards in three straight games. In the 49-35 win over North Texas, Texas State and UNT each had exactly 605 yards. However, Texas State piled up 565 yards and still lost. The Bobcats had an FBS program record for total offense, 34 first downs to San Diego State’s 13, and nearly twice the Aztecs’ time of possession – but two interceptions helped swing the 31-29 result. For what it’s worth, the Aztecs get our vote for ‘Biggest Frauds of the Year’ thus far in college football (see more on them in the final game analysis on today’s card). Colorado State is breathing right down their necks: In their first two wins, the Rams allowed just 18.5 PPG allowed; their last three losses? 52 PPG. Folks, with TSU’s high-volume offense facing a leaky CSU defense that could use a liberal application of Phil Swift’s Flex-Seal, you don’t need a road map to find the right side of this game.