Does anybody here know what a season win is worth in the NFL. For example: If i had an option to bet Arizona Cardinals O7.5 -160 or O8 -110 which one is the better bet. Obv the -110 has to hit 52.38% to breakeven and the -160 has to hit roughly 61.53% to breakeven so obv if the half game in question is worth more than 9.15% (the difference between 52.38% and 61.53%) then the O7.5 -160 would be the better bet however that is the part i'm struggling with. I don't know what the difference between 7.5 and 8 is in season wins. It's obv a less difference than 11.5 to 12 but I don't know how to quantify the differences.
NCAA I realize is a totally different animal because of the possibility of different textured schedules. Example: A total in college football could be 6 for a given team and their schedule consists of 6 games where they will be 30 pt favorites and 6 games where they will be 30 pt dogs. Obv the 6 is worth a ton there where as another team could be lined 6 and they have 12 games that they will be pickem. Obv the 6 here is worth a ton less. The NFL doesn't present this problem because strength of schedules are a ton closer to equal. These are obv extreme examples but you get the idea.
Any help here would be greatly appreciated.
NCAA I realize is a totally different animal because of the possibility of different textured schedules. Example: A total in college football could be 6 for a given team and their schedule consists of 6 games where they will be 30 pt favorites and 6 games where they will be 30 pt dogs. Obv the 6 is worth a ton there where as another team could be lined 6 and they have 12 games that they will be pickem. Obv the 6 here is worth a ton less. The NFL doesn't present this problem because strength of schedules are a ton closer to equal. These are obv extreme examples but you get the idea.
Any help here would be greatly appreciated.