on3's MLB 2014 Opening Day System Thread

**on3** · 03-30-14, 12:23 PM

Play the first week very tentatively

UPDATED for 3/30/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
Filtered System: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 0-0; 0-0
Game 2 (B) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0

REGULAR FOR 3/30/2014
none

Filtered
none

5/2
none

**knugen** · 03-30-14, 12:51 PM

good luck on3.

a question about the 5/2. when i filtered play lose the A game, then we play that B bet to win 5 units and if that lose we play the C bet to win 2 more units?

am i correct?

**analyzer** · 03-30-14, 01:20 PM

Checking in!

**dlunc3** · 03-30-14, 01:35 PM

GL this season On3.

I sat out of this system last yr as it beat me up pretty good the previous year.. Glad to see you recovered well.

I am trying to get reacquainted with what ive missed... Seems the 5/2 system ONLY plays filtered series right? Was last years record of 9-1 the entire season? Or was that just the total from when the 5/2 was implemented?

Thanks and bol this season

**dlunc3** · 03-30-14, 01:39 PM

Originally posted by knugen

good luck on3.

a question about the 5/2. when i filtered play lose the A game, then we play that B bet to win 5 units and if that lose we play the C bet to win 2 more units?

am i correct?

my understanding is this... based on $100 unit:

B bet: bet $550 to win $500 (if game is -110... adjust depending on line).
C bet: bet $825 to win $750 (again, if game is -110)

B bet is to win 5 units. C bet is to win back you B bet loss plus 2 units.

**dlunc3** · 03-30-14, 01:42 PM

Originally posted by dlunc3

GL this season On3.

I sat out of this system last yr as it beat me up pretty good the previous year.. Glad to see you recovered well.

I am trying to get reacquainted with what ive missed... Seems the 5/2 system ONLY plays filtered series right? Was last years record of 9-1 the entire season? Or was that just the total from when the 5/2 was implemented?

Thanks and bol this season

You can ignore the part about 9-1 being the whole season or not... i just looked back and saw that YES it was.

**dlunc3** · 03-30-14, 02:32 PM

Originally posted by thelimit0310

4/2 Method
Not the Official system!

First off I would just like to acknowledge that the Opening Fav system is not broken. This has been stated by me and others and it's true - following On3's labby will give you success. I created this method for people who either do not want to go through the steps of managing a labby or are having trouble learning and wish to use an easier method that still gives great results. So, while long term this method may even produce a good amount more units than the labby way, (many seasons using 4/2 or the filtered 5/2 were +90 units) there is nothing wrong with using the labby. It is not my wish to detract from the work TheRizz and On3 have done, but rather to add to the pot they've created.

New Filters

There are 3 new filters added for this way-to-play. These filters must be used regardless of which variation of this method you use.

1. DO NOT play games that start before 4/25
2. DO NOT play games that start after 9/20 (this effectively makes your season 4/25-9/20 every year)
3. If you start a series and the B or C bet for the series in question has a line of -300 or more, it is best to either skip the series or play -runs. Even if you are mid series, it is best to just take the loss and stop. These high fav games didn't lose often or even frequently, but at that level the risk is no where near the reward.

Way-To-Play

There are 2 ways to play this method - the filtered or non-filtered way. Regardless of which way you choose you must use the 3 new filters mentioned above! YOU SKIP THE A BET IN THIS METHOD!

Filtered: This is the most efficient way to play. When an A game comes up, check to see if it passes the O/U filter of 9. Note this but skip the A bet! If the A bet loses, and the A game passed the O/U filter, then B and C bets are open for play. You would then bet to win 4 units on the B bet and if that loses then bet to win net 2 units on the C (that's recovering your lost units and then +2). If the C bet loses then the series is over as a loss.
The total unit count for this method was +444.77, an average of +55.6 units per season. Only 1 season in 8 backtested years went negative and even then only by -9 units. Not exactly a BR killer. This way is best for those who want clean, easy, consistent growth without hassle. Note: If your bankroll is a little larger, you should check out the 5/2 method.

Non-Filtered: This provides more total units than the filtered version (although less than the filtered 5/2) at the expense of more plays and more hassle with larger and more frequent losses. I would not recommend this way despite it winning more units, as it fluctuates too much. It lacks the easy and consistent growth of the filtered way. The only difference here is that you play any B or C game, the play does not need to pass the A bet O/U filter of 9. Though you still skip the A bet!
The total unit count for this method was +502.51, an average of +62.8 units per season. In this method 3seasons out of 8 went negative. Again while it does have a higher unit count you will have more trouble getting there, If you crave more units but want to keep efficiency check out the 5/2 method.

Variations

There are 2 variations to this method. The 5/2 method and the labby+ method. Both variations put more of your bankroll at risk but in turn have the potential to maximize your profit.

5/2 Filtered: The best way if you have a larger BR. It is best you only play 5/2 on games that pass the O/U filter of 9. I also recommend you only play this method if you have a larger bankroll and can handle the higher losses that come from it. The principle is still the same, just play to win 5 units on the B bet (only if the A bet loses and passes the O/U filter!) and net 2 on C. There is a 37.5% chance per season you will hit a loss that is over -30 units. But never in my backtests did a loss go over -40 and there was never more than 1 loss that cost that high. This is the best way to play if your BR can handle the ~7 extra units lost per loss.
The total unit count for this method was +531.8, an average of +66.5 units per season. Since this should only be used the filtered way, this method only had 1 losing season (just like the filtered way) and only by -11 units. Again, this is the absolute best way if you can handle the extra units per loss.

Labby+: This isn't so much a way to play as it is an add-on to the method itself. This variation capitalizes on the fact that the labby is still a great way to play this system. Essentially you play this method by playing A,B, and C games on the labby just as on3 does. But in addition also run the filtered way to play on the B and C games. Essentially having two different yet successful methods feeding off each other and giving you even more units without adding additional risk to either the labby or filtered 4/2. This variation is for those with bigger BRs who don't mind running the labby but at the same time wish to supplement it with the 4/2 method. Keep in mind you can have a large amount of money in play if the lines get bad on your labby.

Quick way-to-play summation (filtered way)
1. Check teams that are starting a 3 or more game homestand. See if they open at -145 or higher, note the O/U score.
2. If that A bet loses, and the O/U score was 9 or higher, it is now a play
3. On the B bet, place a wager to win 4 units
4. If the B bet loses, place a wager on the C bet to win net 2 units. Series is over after a win or C bet loss.

Special thanks to both TheRizz and On3

Found this from 2012.. thought it may be helpful for when On3 mentions 5/2.

Thanks again to On3 and thelimit

**Grinder12000** · 03-30-14, 02:52 PM

So, what is the basic logic behind this system anyway. Why -145 and not -140 and why do you think it starts to fail in the 2nd half.

Just curious. really!

**MickChunky** · 03-30-14, 04:41 PM

What is the rule for the O/U 9 filter?

**imotiv8** · 03-30-14, 09:10 PM

checking in

**tr4sh** · 03-30-14, 11:13 PM

So this is a labby line only system?

**hagball52** · 03-31-14, 08:09 AM

And so it begins. Good luck On3

**dlunc3** · 03-31-14, 11:32 AM

Looks like todays plays are:

Pitt
Det
TB
CWS
Miami

Sound about right to everyone?

**on3** · 03-31-14, 11:44 AM

Labby will start running after the first two weeks. Until then, I am playing (A) bets as a half unit, (B) bets as one unit, (C) bets as 2 units. Filtered wil be doubled.

UPDATED for 3/31/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
Filtered System: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 0-0; 0-0
Game 2 (B) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0

REGULAR FOR 3/31/2014
(A) PIT -160
(A) TB -157
(A) CHW -158
(A) MIA -150
(A) DET -150

Filtered
none

5/2
none

**on3** · 03-31-14, 11:46 AM

Originally posted by tr4sh

So this is a labby line only system?

First two weeks should be taken slow. I will start running the labby on April 14th.

**on3** · 03-31-14, 11:49 AM

Originally posted by MickChunky

What is the rule for the O/U 9 filter?

Games in which the home team is at -145 or higher and the O/U is at 9 or higher have shown a very strong win percentage for the favorite to win a game in a 3 or 4 game series.

**on3** · 03-31-14, 11:54 AM

Originally posted by Grinder12000

So, what is the basic logic behind this system anyway. Why -145 and not -140 and why do you think it starts to fail in the 2nd half.

Just curious. really!

The -145 line is what was backtested. From what I've seen, -145 in MLB is like -4 in the NBA or -6 in the NFL. Lines where oddsmakers have designated a clear favorite. I have no stats to back this up, this is just from my years of wagering.

2nd half seems to falter because lines become very inflated in the MLB, so too many teams qualify for plays. Bad teams get -160 lines if they are anywhere near playoff contention or have a decent pitcher on the mound. Division leaders routinely get -260 to -300 lines and losses in a series like that really crush the bankroll.

**on3** · 03-31-14, 11:55 AM

Originally posted by knugen

good luck on3.

a question about the 5/2. when i filtered play lose the A game, then we play that B bet to win 5 units and if that lose we play the C bet to win 2 more units?

am i correct?

Correct.

**knugen** · 03-31-14, 11:20 PM

Nice 5-0 start. Thanks

**JonEJet** · 04-01-14, 09:23 AM

Originally posted by knugen

Nice 5-0 start. Thanks

Wow.....great start indeed. Thanks

**Franchise19** · 04-01-14, 12:36 PM

Checking in, started following this system last year and it was a thrill!

**on3** · 04-01-14, 01:29 PM

Originally posted by knugen

Nice 5-0 start. Thanks

any shmuck can pick the five biggest favorites on the board and win, right? let's see what happens in the coming weeks. there is always one pitfall in the first two weeks, i'm still treading lightly.

NO PLAYS TODAY

**on3** · 04-01-14, 01:30 PM

UPDATED for 4/1/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 5-0-0; Profit: +5 units
Filtered System: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 5-0; 0-0
Game 2 (B) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0

REGULAR FOR 4/1/2014
none

Filtered
none

5/2
none

**HowardRoark** · 04-01-14, 02:57 PM

what is the difference between your "regular" and "filtered" systems?
Thanks

**Tillos** · 04-01-14, 03:29 PM

GL this season buddy i'll be watching

**bbedore** · 04-01-14, 04:04 PM

I am intrigued. I will be following this season.

**parlay100** · 04-01-14, 04:15 PM

Originally posted by HowardRoark

what is the difference between your "regular" and "filtered" systems?
Thanks

you cant look at the top of the page?

**HowardRoark** · 04-01-14, 04:48 PM

Originally posted by parlay100

you cant look at the top of the page?

Im looking:

Basic rules -- if HOME team A is favored by -145 or greater in game1 of their series, they are a play. 3 game chase. A few filters:

It was shown to be profitable to play a 5/2 system, the 5/2 is indicating the units bet to win the series. The trigger is when a filtered play loses the (A) game.
No 2-game series' should be played.
After the all-star break, teams must meet either the overall .500 record test or the home record over .500 test.
Odds > -190 should be played on the RL.
The O/U 9 filter has a very strong historical record.

Last year finished at around +100 units, most of which came during the first half of the season. The second half of the season is always a treading water situation.

Here is last years thread: http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-betting/2270068-on3s-mlb-2013-opening-day-system-thread.html

Please point out where it says the difference between regular and filtered

**alexknyc** · 04-01-14, 04:53 PM

Originally posted by HowardRoark

Im looking:

Basic rules -- if HOME team A is favored by -145 or greater in game1 of their series, they are a play. 3 game chase. A few filters:

It was shown to be profitable to play a 5/2 system, the 5/2 is indicating the units bet to win the series. The trigger is when a filtered play loses the (A) game.
No 2-game series' should be played.
After the all-star break, teams must meet either the overall .500 record test or the home record over .500 test.
Odds > -190 should be played on the RL.
The O/U 9 filter has a very strong historical record.

Last year finished at around +100 units, most of which came during the first half of the season. The second half of the season is always a treading water situation.

Here is last years thread: http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-betting/2270068-on3s-mlb-2013-opening-day-system-thread.html

Please point out where it says the difference between regular and filtered

Here you go: The O/U 9 filter has a very strong historical record.

Games with an O/U of 9 or above are "filtered" plays.

**reddevils64** · 04-02-14, 08:19 AM

Has anyone come across the John Morrison MLB Exterminator System ?

**hagball52** · 04-02-14, 09:33 AM

Originally posted by reddevils64

Has anyone come across the John Morrison MLB Exterminator System ?

It's probably just like his NBA Exterminator system where you just skip the (A) bets and if the (A) bet loses then you just flat bet the (B) and (C) bets. He just wants to charge more money to resell his same old stuff.

**on3** · 04-02-14, 12:11 PM

UPDATED for 4/2/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 5-0-0; Profit: +5 units
Filtered System: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 5-0; 0-0
Game 2 (B) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0

REGULAR FOR 4/2/2014
none

Filtered
none

5/2
none

**on3** · 04-03-14, 06:40 PM

OAK is creeping up into play territory, currently at -140. if it reaches -145 across the board (use http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/) then it will be an official unfiltered play.

**wantgoback** · 04-04-14, 03:35 AM

On3, thanks for sharing

I am not good at math but would like to tail.

Will you post the play before the game start daily?