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UFC 270: Moreno vs. Figueiredo MMA Odds and Picks

UFC 270: Moreno vs. Figueiredo MMA Odds and Picks
Deiveson Figueiredo of Brazil fights Brandon Moreno of Mexico during their UFC 263 flyweight championship match. Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images via AFP.

Before the heavyweights go at it in Saturday’s main event, a pair of flyweights in Brandon Moreno and Deiveson Figueiredo clash in a trilogy fight. We break it down with our Moreno-Figueiredo UFC 270 picks.

The top two fighters in the flyweight division meet for the third straight time. Figueiredo will try to get his belt back after losing it at UFC 263 in June, when he suffered a submission loss in the third round. The former division champ first won the belt from Joseph Benavidez in February 2020. Figueiredo and Moreno fought to a draw in December 2020 after Figueiredo was deducted one point in the third round for a groin strike.

That fight was Moreno’s second draw in the UFC. His first was against Askar Askarov in 2019. You have to go all the way back to May 2018 to find the last time Moreno lost inside the Octagon, a decision loss to Alexandre Pantoja.

Here are my Moreno-Figueiredo picks and predictions for Saturday’s UFC 270 flyweight title fight (odds via BetMGM and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Moreno vs. Figueiredo Fight Info

Date/Time: Saturday, Jan. 22, 10 p.m. ET (main card)
TV: ESPN/ESPN+
Location: Honda Center, Anaheim, CA

Moreno vs. Figueiredo Odds Analysis

Moreno opened as low as a -185 favorite for this fight, where he’s largely remained. He has come up a bit, with -175 via BetMGM being the best number on the board.

The total rounds line of 3.5 is the most commonly listed number, with the Over shaded to -115 at FanDuel. The best price on the Under is -105 at Caesars.

Brandon Moreno Betting Profile

With just two losses to his name since joining the UFC in 2016, Moreno has fought the best in this division and after a controversial draw in his first fight with Figueiredo, cemented that thought in the rematch with a rear-naked choke victory. A black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, 58% of his wins have come via submission, but the nickname “The Assassin Baby” has been given for a reason.

Coming into Saturday, Moreno is landing 3.44 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy clip of 48.46%. Taking a look at his grappling, he holds the edge over Figueiredo in takedown average at 2.05 per 15 minutes (vs. 1.54 for Figueiredo), and in defense (65% vs. 58%).

Deiveson Figueiredo Betting Profile

Six years Moreno’s senior, Figueiredo joined the UFC in 2017 and prior to running into Moreno, suffered just one defeat in his blitz to the top. The active record holder in the division with a five-fight win streak from July 2019 to November 2020 and with seven finishes, Figueiredo’s body count is a who’s who of the flyweight division and includes twice defeating the division’s OG legend Benavidez before he retired.

Also a Black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Figueiredo is an elite grappler and a sneaky sharp striker. While he slightly trails Moreno in significant strikes landed per minutes, Figueiredo comes into this fight with 56% of his total strikes being significant. Despite losing the takedown battle, Figueiredo submits his opponents at more than two times the clip of Moreno, with 2.13 submissions per 15 minutes.

Moreno vs. Figueiredo Picks

Figueiredo (+145 via BetMGM) ★★
Total rounds Over 3.5 (-122 via FanDuel) ★★★★

SEE ALSO: Ngannou vs. Gane Picks

Moreno vs. Figueiredo Predictions

Figueiredo (+145)

The first fight between these two was an instant classic type of fight that won Fight of the Night honors at UFC 256, and for good reason. A back and forth affair throughout, I believe Figueiredo would have won the decision if he had not been deducted a point in the third round for an errant kick that struck Moreno’s groin. 

In the second fight, a fairly back and forth first few rounds were ended when Figueiredo got caught on the ground, submitting to Moreno in yet another great fight. Anyone can get caught, and while I’m not discounting what Moreno was able to do, the numbers point toward a fight that should be much closer to even on paper.

For that reason, I’m taking the value with Figueiredo at this inflated number while it lasts.

Over 3.5 rounds (-122)

It’s safe to say they know each other’s tendencies, for better or worse, quite well. Already having gone to the judge’s scorecards once, I see this one headed there again in a fight where both combatants have plenty to lose.

Should Figueiredo lose for the second straight time, you have to figure he has a long road to the fourth fight vs. Moreno and could very well never get there. For Moreno, losing the belt in his very first defense will certainly be on his mind. I don’t expect many risks, especially early while the scorecards are relatively fresh.

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Moreno-Figueiredo picks made 1/19/2022 at 9:02 p.m. ET.