UFC 268: Gaethje vs. Chandler MMA Odds and Betting Picks

Kyle Smith

Last Updated: November 4, 2021 8:39 AM EDT • 2 min 32 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA - MAY 09: Justin Gaethje of the United States celebrates after defeating Tony Ferguson of the United States in their Interim lightweight title fight during UFC 249 at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena on May 09, 2020 in Jacksonville, Florida. Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by Douglas P. DeFelice / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

A terrifying firefight is set to break out on Saturday night when Justin Gaethje and Michael Chander - two of MMA’s foremost purveyors of violence - are scheduled for a dangerous game of fist-chicken on the main card of UFC 268. We make our top Gaethje-Chandler picks.

Gaethje, a former World Series of Fighting and UFC interim lightweight champion who houses bricks where his fists should be, is the blood-soaked definition of an “action fighter.” The former NCAA Division I All-American wrestler doesn’t often fall back on grappling and instead bludgeons opponents into oblivion. He finished 19 of his 22 career victories via TKO/KO, and one by submission.

If Gaethje is looking to sling leather with bad intentions, Chandler may just be his huckleberry. A former 155-pound champion in his own right (Bellator), Chandler is also a Division I All-American wrestler with a penchant for viciously putting his opponents away. Like Gaethje, Chandler has racked up 22 career wins, with 17 ending in either TKO/KO or submission.

Here are my picks and predictions for Saturday’s UFC 268 lightweight tilt between Gaethje and Chandler (odds via Fanduel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Gaethje vs. Chandler Fight Info

Date/Time: Saturday, November 6, 10 p.m. ET (main card)TV: ESPN+, PPVLocation: Madison Square Garden, New York City, NY

Gaethje vs. Chandler Odds Analysis

Gaethje opened as a -180 favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, and that line has moved to -210 in the subsequent days. A live dog, Chandler can be found at +175 on DraftKings Sportsbook after opening at +155. Gaethje is a slightly larger favorite (-220) on FanDuel, while Chandler can be snatched up at +176.

Justin Gaethje Betting Profile

A “Fight of the Night” machine, Gaethje comes into his bout with Chandler having tasted victory in four of his last five trips to the Octagon. His lone defeat came at the hands of the retired and undefeated lightweight kingpin, Khabib Nurmagomedov.

Prior to his loss to Nurmagomedov, Gaethje used his prodigious power to viciously put a dent in the upper echelon of the 155-pound ranks, racking up consecutive first-round KOs/TKOs against James Vick, Edson Barboza, and Donald Cerrone, before his brutal fifth-round TKO of former interim champion Tony Ferguson in the main event of UFC 249.

“The Highlight’s” gunslinger, take a shot to land a shot mentality can sometimes land him in hot water, as he lost absolute barnburners to Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier in his first two UFC bouts.

Michael Chandler Betting Profile

Boasting an impressive pre-UFC resume that included stoppage victories over former champions Eddie Alvarez and Benson Henderson, Chandler immediately burst into the lightweight title picture when he completely liquefied Dan Hooker in the opening round of his UFC debut in January.

This destruction of the leather-tough Hooker vaulted Chandler into a bout against Brazilian finishing machine Charles Oliveira for the vacant lightweight title at UFC 262. After flooring Oliveira and almost finishing “Do Bronx” in the first round, Chandler snatched defeat from the jaws of victory and fell victim to a devastating right hand in the second stanza.

Gaethje vs. Chandler Betting Picks

Gaethje to win (-210 via DraftKings) ???Gaethje by KO/TKO (+100 via FanDuel) ???

Gaethje vs. Chandler Betting Predictions

Gaethje to win (-210)

Although he’s been known to toss out his game plan in pursuit of maximum violence, Gaethje has matured into a more measured, controlled fighter during his UFC tenure. Sure, the chin-melting power is still very much there, but he has learned to pick his spots more intelligently.

Gaethje will emerge victoriously, and it won’t go to the judge’s cards, which leads us to ...

Gaethje by KO/TKO (+100)

Quite simply, if Gaethje wins a fight, he doesn’t let his opponent leave on steady feet. Almost all of his victories have been the result of his fists altering his opponent’s state of reality, and that isn’t going to change on Saturday night.