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Spain's Lamine Yamal celebrates his team's first goal against Germany as Gary Pearson offers his best parlay for the Spain vs. France Euro 2024 semifinal.
Spain's Lamine Yamal celebrates his team's first goal against Germany in the Euro 2024 quarterfinals. Photo by Picture Alliance

The tournament's most potent offense and stingy defense will collide on Tuesday in Munich as Spain and France battle for a place in Sunday's Euro 2024 final.  

Our Spain vs. France parlay and SGP picks highlight Lamine Yamal's opportunity to provide some offense while also focusing on the halftime result and which team will advance. 

Spain have filled the net a tournament-most 11 times. While four came against an inferior Georgia side in the Round of 16, don't take anything away from La Roja's attacking intent. They've consistently passed the eye test and are on the verge of their first European Championship final since winning the tournament in 2012. 

La Roja, the favorites to advance to the final, are the consensus Euro 2024 odds front-runners across our best sports betting sites. They won't have it easy against a France defense that's only conceded one goal, which came from the penalty spot against Poland. 

Tuesday's match starts at 3 p.m. ET from Munich Arena in Munich, Germany (Fox Sports). Along with our Spain vs. France predictions and our Spain vs. France player props, here's our best parlay.  

Spain vs. France parlay: Euro 2024 semifinal

Spain vs. France odds via our best soccer betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Combined odds: +577 | Implied probability: 14.77%

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Lamine Yamal Over 0.5 shots on target

Lamine Yamal is probably learning about basic probability in his high-school mathematics class. Yes, I said high school. Well, according to the implied probability, the 16-year-old has a 50% shot of getting at least one shot on target in the semifinal. 

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The 16-year-old is accomplishing things most can't comprehend and doing so in style. Yamal has registered four shots on target in four starts at Euro 2024, three of which came in the last two.

He should have added to his shot tally against Germany but just missed on a dangerous free kick from about 25 meters away. He's often tasked with taking Spain's in-range free kicks and has the pace to create room for shooting opportunities. 

Odds: +100 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 50%

Halftime draw

Semifinal matches at any major tournament are usually cagey affairs, even more so in the opening 45 minutes. Six of the eight semifinals since Euro 2008 were tied going into the halftime interval. Meanwhile, four of France's five matches were tied going into the break, the only exclusion coming in their Euro 2024 opener against Austria. 

With almost nothing to choose between these two titans, I expect another tight opening. Neither team can afford to go down early, especially France. With a ticket to the final on the line, this match should go down to the wire, which will probably include a scoreless opening 45 minutes. 

FanDuel's -120 odds would pay a profit of $8.33 on a standalone bet. 

Odds: -120 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 54.55%

Spain to advance

If advancing to the final was based on style, Spain would already have earned enough points without playing in the semifinal. Spain were superb in ousting the hosts in the quarterfinal. If they play like they did against Germany, La Roja should punch their first final ticket in 12 years. 

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Meanwhile, France are one of the most savvy sides on the world stage, and they've made the last two World Cup finals. Winning ugly has become a badge of honor for Didier Deschamps since he took the coaching reins after Euro 2012.

His side will probably force extra time in the prototypical French style, but I expect Spain to finally put Les Bleus out of their non-scoring Euro 2024 misery. 

This parlay comes with odds of +577, which will pay a profit of $57.70 on a $10 bet if all three legs hit.  

Odds: -118 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 54.13%

Spain vs. France game info

  • When: Tuesday, July 9
  • Time: 3 p.m. ET
  • Where: Munich Football Arena (Munich, Germany)
  • How to watch: Fox Sports (U.S.), TSN (Canada)
  • Favorite: Spain (+175 via DraftKings)

Spain-France predictions made Monday at 3:30 p.m. ET.

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