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Randal Kolo Muani controls the ball against Portugal as we offer our best picks and predictions for the Euro 204 semifinal featuring France and Spain.
Randal Kolo Muani of France, Pepe of Portugal during the UEFA Euro 2024, quarter-final football match between Portugal and France on July 5, 2024 at Volksparkstadion in Hamburg, Germany. Photo via Sipa USA.

In France, qualifying for the semifinals at a major tournament is almost as assured as a stimulating coffee and a fresh pastry at breakfast. Didier Deschamps has done it again, steering the French to their fourth semifinal in the last six major tournaments. 

Now, it's just a matter of facing Spain, the Euro 2024 odds favorites and the tournament's unequivocal best team to this point. Spain enter the semifinal showdown as marginal favorites across our best sports betting sites as we dive into our Spain vs. France prediction and best bets.  

France have lumbered their way through to the final four on the back of an exceptional defense. The adage defense wins championships has never been more poignant.

While they're still two wins away from achieving that feat, France have allowed just one goal in five matches, which came from the spot against Poland in their final Group D encounter. 

Meanwhile, Spain have won all five matches, outscoring the opposition 11-2 as they look to advance to their first Euro final since 2012. I like the value of a couple of Spanish threats today, which I break down further in my Spain vs. France player props.

Spain vs. France predictions for Tuesday

Spain vs. France odds via our best soccer betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Spain vs. France score prediction

Spain 1 vs. France 1

Spain and France have each won two of their previous four head-to-heads. While Spain are inarguably the more in-form team, France are survival masters and have been since Deschamps took the helm after Euro 2012. France will never go quietly into the night, and I expect them to showcase their best against an effervescent Spanish team. 

France are the first team in European Championship history to advance to the semifinal without scoring a goal from open play. That stat has to change at some point. Les Bleus were much better offensively against Portugal, creating more than enough chances to break their scoreless streak. 

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Several near-misses headlined their quarterfinal display. France has 7.9 expected goals and just one goal (excluding the two opposition's own goals), highlighting their inability to place the final touch on otherwise promising offensive forays.

Spain didn't keep a clean sheet in either knockout game and can be exposed at the back. Meanwhile, Spain have the tournament's most lethal and irrepressible offense, scoring 11 from 10.2 expected goals. 

FanDuel consistently offers the best prices and value for the correct score market. bet365 also offers +500 odds, which will pay a profit of $50 on a $10 bet if the game is tied 1-1 after 90 minutes. I also like this game to be tied at the halfway point, as that's one of my selections in my Spain vs. France parlay & SGP.

Best odds: +500 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 16.67%

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Spain vs. France anytime goal scorer prediction

Kolo Muani, France

Backing Kolo Muani to score is a slightly more risky play, as he didn't make the starting 11 in any of the four matches prior to the quarterfinal. However, Muani has been France's most formidable offensive threat since being introduced in the second half against Belgium in the Round of 16. Muani played with pace and verve, attacking the defense fearlessly.

Had it not been for a game-saving last-gasp defensive deflection, he would have scored the winner against Portugal. And despite Kylian Mbappe's perpetual threat, I like Muani to end France's scoring drought from open play.

bet365 offers the best value of our best sports betting apps. The +500 odds will pay a profit of $50 on a $10 bet if Muani scores a goal before the full-time whistle.  

Best odds: +500 via bet365 | Implied probability: 16.67%

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Spain vs. France best bet

ML tie

Spain have played exceptionally throughout the tournament and came up with a sensational winner to oust Germany seconds before a dreaded penalty shootout commenced. While they were full value for their quarterfinal victory, Spain dropped back and allowed several golden opportunities in the second half. Had Germany been more clinical, we may be discussing a different semifinal matchup. 

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That said, I expect Spain to advance to their first final since winning the tournament in 2012, but it might take penalties to get the job done. France are easily the tournament's best defensive team and will make it difficult for Spain to create as many chances as they have in previous matches. 

Also, France are overdue for a goal. I like both teams to score before the full-time whistle, forcing extra time. The +180 odds offered by BetMGM will pay a profit of $18 on a winning $10 wager. 

Best odds: +180 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 35.71%

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Spain vs. France odds

TeamDraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
Spain+175+170+165+170+170
France+205+210+210+200+210
ML tie+180+180+180+180+180

Spain vs. France game info

  • When: Tuesday, July 9
  • Time: 3 p.m. ET
  • Where: Munich Football Arena (Munich, Germany)
  • How to watch: Fox Sports (U.S.), TSN (Canada)
  • Favorite: Spain (+175 via DraftKings)

Spain-France predictions made Monday at 11 a.m. ET.

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