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Netherlands vs. Argentina Odds, Picks, Predictions: Will Messi Magic Carry Albicelestes to Final Four?

Anthony Wootton

Last Updated: January 1, 0001 12:00 AM EST • 2 min 58 sec read.

Argentina's forward Lionel Messi celebrates scoring the opening goal with his teammate Argentina's midfielder Angel Di Maria during the Qatar 2022 World Cup Group C football match at the Lusail Stadium in Lusail, north of Doha. Kirill Kudryavtsev / AFP.
Argentina's forward Lionel Messi celebrates scoring the opening goal with his teammate Argentina's midfielder Angel Di Maria during the Qatar 2022 World Cup Group C football match at the Lusail Stadium in Lusail, north of Doha. Kirill Kudryavtsev / AFP

This will be the sixth World Cup meeting between Netherlands and Argentina. Read on for our Netherlands-Argentina World Cup pick and prediction.

Netherlands have lost just one of their nine matches with Argentina in all competitions (W4 D4), with that loss coming in the 1978 World Cup final. However, the most recent of those four draws did result in a penalty shootout defeat, in the last meeting between the sides in the 2014 World Cup semifinal.

Netherlands are unbeaten in their last 11 World Cup games (W8 D3), extending their longest ever unbeaten streak in the tournament. Argentina have won each of their last three matches at the World Cup, scoring 2-plus goals in each of those matches. Lionel Messi has been directly involved in seven of Argentina’s last 12 goals at the World Cup, scoring four and assisting three more.

Here is our best Netherlands vs. Argentina World Cup pick (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our World Cup best bets.

Netherlands vs. Argentina Game Info

Date: Friday, Dec. 9, 2 p.m. ET
TV: Fox Sports, Telemundo
Location: Lusail Iconic Stadium, Lusail, Qatar
Weather: 72 degrees, 2% chance of precipitation, 14 mph winds

Netherlands vs. Argentina Odds Analysis

The bookmakers are expecting a tight match. The moneyline is generous for both teams, with DraftKings and BetMGM offering the highest odds for Argentina at +125. PointsBet has it as low as +115 for the South Americans to win. The highest price for the Netherlands is +260 at FanDuel. 

The spread is tough to call, you can get the line at 0.5 and 1.5, but if you are going for Argentina, you are getting better odds straight up than against the spread at 0.5. Therefore, take the moneyline instead of the best price of +120 (DraftKings) at -0.5. If you like the Netherlands as the underdog, you can get -140 at PointsBet for the line at +0.5. 

The last two World Cup meetings between these two countries have ended 0-0, and the sportsbooks are expecting more of the same. The total is at 2.5, and the best price for the Under is with PointsBet (-170). You can get the Over as high as +150 at DraftKings. 

Check out our Croatia vs. Brazil pick and our top World Cup goalscorer prop picks!

Netherlands vs. Argentina Pick

Argentina ML (+125 via DraftKings) ★★★★★ 

The value for the reigning Copa America champions is too good. We’re getting better odds straight up than the handicap. Since being humbled 2-1 by Saudi Arabia in their opening group game, Argentina have beaten both Poland and Mexico 2-0, and defeated Australia 2-1 in the previous knockout round. 

They also have Messi, who has been directly involved in seven of Argentina’s last 12 goals at the World Cup, scoring four and assisting three more. He’s one goal away from matching his country’s record for most scored in World Cup tournaments (10). In what he admits is his last World Cup, Messi will want to claim that record. 

Manchester City’s Julian Alvarez, who netted a goal last time out against Australia, has scored in five of his six starts in all competitions for Argentina. The Netherlands can be exposed by this Argentine attack. Despite a resolute defense in the competition, they’ve conceded in two of their last three at this tournament.

The team scoring first in World Cup meetings between these two has gone on to win on all three occasions: Netherlands in 1974 and 1998 and Argentina in 1978.

Netherlands vs. Argentina Best Odds

DraftKings (+125)

BetMGMDraftKingsCaesarsFanDuelPointsBet
+125+125+122+120+115

The Netherlands failed to qualify for the last World Cup in Russia and were knocked out of Euro 2020 in the Round of 16. They’ve had an excellent tournament under head coach Louis van Gaal, but Argentina are superior opponents. This is Messi’s World Cup swansong, and he’s playing at a high level. They can’t rely on one man, but Alvarez is a proven scorer for his country and Lautaro Martinez scored seven goals in World Cup qualifying — the most of any Argentinian player alongside Messi.

There’s quite a variation in price between sportsbooks. This game will be too tight to play with a handicap, which is why the value on the moneyline is so strong. Neither team will want to go to extra time, with the semifinals as soon as Tuesday. Don’t overlook how big this tournament is for Messi, and he’s proven he can turn it on at the biggest of stages. 

Where to Bet on Netherlands vs. Argentina

  Here are our best World Cup betting sites:  

Netherlands vs. Argentina picks made 12-08-2022 at 10 a.m. ET

Written By:
Anthony Wootton
Anthony is an accredited NFL journalist and has been reporting on the league for over a decade, covering the London games for the BBC and other broadcast outlets. He's presented a North American sports show for national radio across the UK, which is now the TransAtlantic Sports Show podcast. Anthony has also produced and presented radio documentaries on football for global audiences. He has years of betting experience, writing NFL tips for some of the industry's biggest sportsbooks. He's a producer of sports content, including Premier League, LaLiga, Bundesliga, Champions League, and international soccer. He's a keen follower of sport, and a long-time sufferer of English Championship team, Blackburn Rovers. He's a keen runner and completed a challenge of running every day in 2021, which included a minimum distance of 5km in the rules.