Rushing Yards Total Cheat Sheet: Can We Expect the Same Workload for Najee Harris?
Last season, Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor rushed for 1,811 yards to win the rushing title. We have created a small cheat sheet containing all of this year's rushing yardage odds.
Several sportsbooks have posted season-long totals on player props in advance of the NFL season. To see if there are any significant gaps between the projections and the betting markets, I decided to cross-reference these totals with the projections from Fantasy Pros, ESPN, and Pro Football Focus. To help the sportsbooks combat potential injuries, many of the projections will be higher than the totals.
The following are some of the players who stand out to me after comparing their projections to their player prop totals for the upcoming season.
| Players | Projections via Fantasy Pros, ESPN and PFF | Total via DraftKings Sportsbook | Difference |
| Derrick Henry | 1,570 | 1350.5 | +219.5 |
| Dalvin Cook | 1,255 | 1150.5 | +104.5 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 1,479 | 1450.5 | +28.5 |
| Nick Chubb | 1,184 | 1200.5 | -16.5 |
| Najee Harris | 1,136 | 1150.5 | -14.5 |
| Joe Mixon | 1,123 | 1050.5 | +72.5 |
| Austin Ekeler | 944 | 800.5 | +143.5 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 933 | 875.5 | +57.5 |
| D'Andre Swift | 903 | 850.5 | +52.5 |
| Travis Etienne | 779 | 705.5 | +73.5 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 989 | 900.5 | +88.5 |
| Javonte Williams | 951 | 945.5 | +5.5 |
| Cam Akers | 996 | 895.5 | +100.5 |
| Josh Jacobs | 889 | 750.5 | +138.5 |
| Breece Hall | 903 | 830.5 | +72.5 |
| A.J. Dillon | 740 | 775.5 | -35.5 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 678 | 700.5 | -22.5 |
| Devin Singletary | 765 | 750.5 | +14.5 |
| James Conner | 860 | 825.5 | +34.5 |
| Tony Pollard | 743 | 700.5 | +42.5 |
| Daniel Jones | 410 | 350.5 | +59.5 |
| Jalen Hurts | 758 | 725.5 | +32.5 |
| Josh Allen | 673 | 550.5 | +122.5 |
| Justin Fields | 560 | 525.5 | +34.5 |
| Kyler Murray | 549 | 525.5 | +23.5 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 362 | 325.5 | +36.5 |
| Trey Lance | 543 | 500.5 | +42.5 |
Total Rushing Yards: Best Bets
· Harris Under 1150.5 yards (-115 via DraftKings)
Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers: Under 1150.5 yards (-115 via DraftKings)
A lot of totals are lower than projections to help protect against potential injuries, so it is difficult to find many scenarios where projections for a player actually fall below their totals. So when you see a player come in below their projection, which assumes they are playing in all 17 games, you should take note.
In terms of Najee Harris's rushing prop, I favor the Under this season, and I am pleased to see that the projections are in agreement with me. Since Ben Roethlisberger was nothing short of awful last season, Harris was given a heavy workload. Last season, only Jonathan Taylor of the Indianapolis Colts had more rushing attempts than Harris.
Even with 307 rushing attempts last season, Harris only exceeded this total by 49.5 yards. Seeing those numbers should raise an alarm in your head. I am a big fan of the Under on Harris' 1150.5 rushing yards this season.
Jones, QB, New York Giants: 350.5 yards (-112 via FanDuel)
I am intrigued by the difference between Daniel Jones' projections and the total, but not necessarily because there is a serious gap between the numbers. There are many other reasons to back the Over on this prop for Jones, and I am pleased to see that the projections agree with my assessment.
This will be Jones's first season playing in Brian Daboll's offense, an offense that produced a significant amount of rushing success for Josh Allen. It is likely that Daboll will attempt to take advantage of Jones' mobility, especially since he is unable to sling the ball like Allen.
I also like Jones because he surpassed this total in 2020 with 423 rushing yards in only 14 games. Jones fell below the 350.5 mark last season, but he only played 11 games. It is estimated that Jones would have rushed for 460 yards if he had maintained that pace over a period of 17 games.
Edwards-Helaire, RB, Kansas City Chiefs: 700.5 yards (-115/-115 via DraftKings)
As I placed a bet on Isiah Pacheco to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at +5000, I am all aboard the hype train for Pacheco. There is already a noticeable impact of Pacheco's buzz in training camp on the rushing total for Clyde Edwards-Helaire, which has dropped to 650.5 at FanDuel.
It is projected that Edwards-Helaire will go Under the total of 700.5, which speaks volumes since there are not many players who are projected to go Under. Although it is likely that Edwards-Helaire's workload could decline significantly with the emergence of Pacheco, I am proceeding with caution.
In training camp, Pacheco has received a lot of attention for his ability to catch the ball and protect Patrick Mahomes on passing plays. There is a possibility that Pacheco will have less of an impact on Edwards-Helaire's rushing statistics than we think he will. Before placing an Under bet, I would like more clarity on how they will be deploying each running back within the offense.
Where to Bet on NFL Rushing Yards Props
Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:
FanDuel Sportsbook
Caesars Sportsbook
DraftKings Sportsbook
PointsBet
BetMGM
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