Wild vs. Sabres NHL Picks: Expect a High-Scoring Affair in Buffalo

The Minnesota Wild visit the Buffalo Sabres Friday night in what is anticipated to be a lopsided affair. Let's dive in with our Wild-Sabres picks.

The Wild are considered Stanley Cup contenders, though they're mired in a slump. The team is 4-6 in its last 10 games, though that could be just a rough patch. The Wild can begin to turn things around on Friday against the weaker Buffalo Sabres. 

Despite their struggles, Minnesota still sits fourth in the vaunted Western Conference with 67 points. The Wild hold a game in hand on their top competition. 

Meanwhile, the Sabres are rebuilding but playing hard under head coach Don Granato. The second-last-place club in the Eastern Conference will continue to limp along in the standings. But Buffalo will hang around in games because of its work ethic and some top-end talent. 

The Sabres are coming off a significant road win against the Toronto Maple Leafs, and they'll look to carry that momentum into this game.

Here are my Wild-Sabres picks and predictions for Friday's NHL matchup (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Wild vs. Sabres Game Info

Date/Time: Friday, March 4, 7 p.m. ETTV: ESPN+Location: KeyBank Center, Buffalo, NY

Wild vs. Sabres Odds Analysis

This game opened with the Wild as -200 favorites. But some money on Buffalo has come in to drive Minnesota down to -166 at FanDuel. The Wild are now hovering around -190 at most shops, so expect it to stay around there throughout the day.

The total opened at 6.5, but it's beginning to shade toward the Over. It should stay at that number, but the Over will continue to take juice throughout the day, as bettors expect a high-scoring affair.

Wild vs. Sabres Picks

Wild -1.5 (+125) ????Over 6.5 (-110) ????Kirill Kaprizov Over 1.5 Points (+140) ????

SEE ALSO: Friday's NHL Parlay Picks

Wild vs. Sabres Predictions

Wild -1.5 (+125)

The Wild's recent play has been subpar, largely due to horrendous goaltending. Cam Talbot has given up four-plus goals in five straight games, and Kaapo Kahkonen let in five his last time out. Not ideal.

Expect that goaltending tandem to regress positively and begin playing better soon. In the meantime, the Wild's potent offense will need to carry them.

Minnesota ranks second in goals per 60 minutes at 3.30, sitting just behind the juggernaut Florida Panthers. Star winger Kirill Kaprizov continues to impress with 65 points over 51 games in 2021-22.

Analytically, the Wild boast a significant advantage in possession and expected goals for percentage. These teams aren't close offensively, with the Wild averaging a goal more per 60 minutes than the lowly Sabres.

Though their goaltenders are struggling, the Wild own a much better expected goals against per 60 minutes than the Sabres. The club is excellent defensively and typically receives solid goaltending.

The Wild should cruise in this one and cover the puck line.

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Over 6.5 (-110)

Minnesota's above-average offense will be on full display Friday.

Buffalo will likely start 40-year-old Craig Anderson. Anderson has been decent this season despite the play in front of him while posting a 2.87 goals-against average (GAA) and a league-average goals saved above average (GSAA).

If Anderson doesn't go, Dustin Tokarski will be in net. He's a subpar goaltender who's registered a 3.38 GAA and -6.0 GSAA. Sprinkle some money on the alternative spreads if he starts.

Kahkonen will surely get the nod for Minnesota after Talbot played Friday. He's been solid this year with a 5.0 GSAA, and Kahkonen is playing much better than Talbot.

The Wild gave up four goals Friday against a poor Philadelphia Flyers team, and they won't fix their issues overnight. The Sabres will be able to put a few on the board.

Look for this one to soar Over the total because of Minnesota's high-flying style and Buffalo's putrid goaltending.

Kaprizov Over 1.5 Points (+140)

Kaprizov is the engine that drives the Wild's offense. He's averaging 1.27 points per game and sits 31st in the NHL with an 18.81 individual expected goals mark, ahead of superstars Jonathan Huberdeau and Nathan MacKinnon.

It's been six games since Kaprizov's last multi-point effort. Look for that streak to end Friday against the cellar-dwelling Buffalo Sabres.

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Wild-Sabres picks made 3/4/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET.