NHL Shot Prop Picks, Predictions for Friday: Robertson Wins Deal with Devils
It’s a busy hockey night with eight games, and Dallas Stars winger Jason Robertson headlines our NHL picks in a sneaky home matchup against the New Jersey Devils. Read on for our top shot-prop predictions based on the best NHL odds.
Two out of three ain’t bad, and both the Devils and Detroit Red Wings play their second road game in consecutive nights. While the third team is also on the road, the L.A. Kings aren’t like the others.
I’ve pinpointed a trio of forwards to capitalize on their matchups and clear their respective totals, and I know we'll all agree, three out of three is much better.
Here are our best NHL shot-prop picks for Friday (odds via BetMGM, DraftKings Sportsbook, and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out all our NHL best bets for Friday.
Top NHL shot prop picks for Friday
- Jason Robertson Over 3.5 shots (+115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Anthony Beauvillier Over 2.5 shots (+110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Carter Verhaeghe Over 2.5 shots (-120 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐
Combined odds: +727 (via DraftKings)
NHL shot prop predictions
Jason Robertson Over 3.5 shots (+115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
This is a cushy matchup for Robertson in the shots market. Not only are the Devils on the second leg of a back-to-back road set after losing to the Nashville Predators 6-4 Thursday, they’ve loosened up considerably on defense out of the holiday break.
Despite rocking a 9-3-2 record, the Devils surrendered the fifth-most shot attempts and sport the 10th-worst Corsi For percentage at five-on-five during this stretch. It’s a far cry from ranking second-best in both metrics before Santa came to town.
Robertson’s also eyeing statistical correction after a string of games without center Roope Hintz, and facing a tough schedule of opponents. He’s only topped this 3.5 total in three of his past eight matchups while generating 9.8 shots and 15.3 attempts per 60 minutes. Since he recorded 13.2 and 23.8 marks through his first 42 contests, anticipate an uptick in volume from the 23-year-old winger Friday.
|+115 🔥||+114||+110||+104 ❄️|
I’ve looked for ways to target New Jersey’s recent fall in possession metrics, and this prop bet definitely fits the bill. You also land a 2.5% edge and 5% positive expected value with +115 odds available compared to the +104 number through Caesars.
Anthony Beauvillier Over 2.5 shots (+110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Oddsmakers are sleeping here. New York Islanders winger Anthony Beauvillier is the clear No. 1 shooter on an under-the-radar line with center Mathew Barzal and winger Casey Cizikas. The new-look trio drove five-on-five possession with a 59.0 Corsi For percentage and registered 14 total shots the past two games.
It’s a small sample, and the Isles could juggle their lines for Friday’s game. Beauvillier skating with Barzal and Cizikas isn’t essential, though. The 25-year-old winger’s shot volume was up across his past 10 games.
Beauvillier’s recorded at least three shots in seven of his past 10 contests with 12.6 shots and 17.3 attempts per game. It’s an uptick from his 7.9 and 12.6 marks through the first 37 matchups, but he's notoriously streaky and had an average of 1:09 of additional ice time per night during the 10-game surge. Plus, there’s room for a modest hit to his shots and attempts without jeopardizing this Over.
I also value the matchup for New York. The Red Wings play their second road game in consecutive nights after narrowly topping the lowly Montreal Canadiens 4-3 in OT Thursday.
|+110 🔥||+110 🔥||+105||+100 ❄️|
This shot prop caught my attention immediately, and the more I looked into it, the more I liked it. The three-star nod aligns with the negative regression that looms over Beauvillier’s recent jump in shots and attempts. You land a solid advantage shopping for the best number, though.
There is a 2.4% edge and 5% positive expected value attached to the +110 odds compared to the number via Caesars.
Carter Verhaeghe Over 2.5 shots (-120 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐
This is a tough matchup. Any shot metric you check lists the Kings as one of the stingiest Ds. Still, it's a fair price for an emerging scorer and high-volume shooter.
This as a schedule mismatch. The Kings are in the middle of a five-game road trip, and the Florida Panthers are a sizable uptick in class after L.A. beat the bottom-dwelling Chicago Blackhawks and Philadelphia Flyers in its past two stops. Florida is also 12-6-3 on home ice, and the Cats will be extra opportunistic in just their third game at FLA Live Arena in three weeks.
Panthers winger Carter Verhaeghe cleared the required 2.5 benchmark in six of his past seven matchups, and showed a consistent willingness to put pucks on net as the year progressed. His 11.2 shots and 18.6 attempts per 60 minutes since November rank an NHL 22nd and 29th, respectively.
Verhaeghe’s shot volume is also higher at home with a small jump of 0.3 per game and 1.3 per 60 minutes. It’s the little things that count, after all.
Play this shot prop to -125, and the tough matchup is the only reason it isn't three-stars. By avoiding the -129 odds through Caesars, you add a 1.7% edge and 3% positive expected value with the -120 number.
NHL shot prop picks made 1/27/2023 at 10:20 a.m. ET.
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