Sharks vs. Maple Leafs Picks, Predictions: Toronto Rested, Waiting For San Jose
Coming off a 4-0 win at Montreal on Tuesday, the San Jose Sharks will visit the Toronto Maple Leafs on Wednesday. Read on for our Sharks-Maple Leafs picks and predictions.
The Sharks received a 28-save-shutout performance from goaltender Kaapo Kahkonen in a 4-0 victory at Montreal on Tuesday. The victory snapped San Jose’s three-game winless streak.
San Jose will play the second game of a back-to-back in Toronto against the Maple Leafs. The Leafs have won four straight games, most recently a 4-2 win at Detroit on Monday.
The Maple Leafs are expected to have rookie winger Nick Robertson and defensemen Conor Timmins in the lineup. Timmins was recently acquired in a trade from the Arizona Coyotes.
Winger Evgeny Svechnikov will draw into the San Jose lineup.
Here are our top picks for the NHL matchup between the Sharks and Maple Leafs (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and Caesars Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).
Sharks vs. Maple Leafs Game Info
Date: Wednesday, Nov. 30, 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN+, Sportsnet, NBCSCA
Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
Sharks vs. Maple Leafs Odds
Sharks vs. Maple Leafs Odds Analysis
Consensus odds opened with the Maple Leafs priced at -300 as favorites. Even though 99% of the early money is coming in on the Maple Leafs, the consensus line has moved to Toronto -270.
The total opened at 6, priced at -120 for Over and +100 for the Under. Relatively quickly, the consensus has moved to a total of 6.5, with 45% of the early wagers on the Over.
Sharks vs. Maple Leafs Picks
- Puck line: Maple Leafs -1.5 (-115 via DraftKings)
- Over/Under: Under 6.5 (-120 via Caesars)
- Prop bet: Logan Couture Over 0.5 goals (+240 via DraftKings)
Sharks vs. Maple Leafs PL Pick
Maple Leafs -1.5 (-115) ★★★★
The Sharks snapped a three-game losing streak with Tuesday’s 4-0 win at Montreal. Oddly enough, the Sharks have been better on the road this season, posting a 6-5 record, compared to winning just two of 14 home games. During five-on-five play, the Sharks are pulling 49.9% of expected goals.
There are concerns about the Maple Leafs. There are significant injuries on defense and Auston Matthews is not matching last season’s goal-scoring pace, but Toronto still ranks sixth in the league with a .688 points percentage.
The Maple Leafs are 7-2-3 on home ice and have one regulation loss in the past 14 games. Toronto is earning 53.1% of five-on-five score-and-venue-adjusted expected goals.
Since the Maple Leafs are -270 on the consensus Moneyline, it makes more financial sense to try Toronto -1.5 at -115 with DraftKings. Seven of Toronto’s 14 wins have been by more than one goal and most of the other top sportsbooks have Toronto at -120 on the puck line.
Sharks vs. Maple Leafs O/U Pick
Under 6.5 (-120) ★★★
The Sharks have tended to play higher-scoring games. They have hit a total of seven goals or more in 14 of 25 games. On average, Sharks games are reaching 6.34 goals per 60 minutes.
Through 24 games this season, Maple Leafs games have reached a total of six goals or less 16 times. They rank fourth with 2.52 goals against per 60 minutes.
The goaltending matchup could threaten the Under. San Jose is going with Aaron Dell, who is making his first NHL start of the season. He has a .905 save percentage in 126 career NHL games.
Toronto is turning to Ilya Samsonov, making his first start since suffering a knee injury on November 5. Samsonov does have a .921 save percentage in eight starts for the Maple Leafs.
DraftKings, Caesars, and BetMGM all have the Maple Leafs on the puck line at -120, which is more appealing than FanDuel Sportsbook's at -128.
Sharks vs. Maple Leafs Prop Pick
Couture Over 0.5 goals (+240) ★★★★
Though a Matthews anytime goal (-113 at Caesars) would be a natural play, there is better relative value elsewhere on the board. San Jose Sharks captain Logan Couture has been on a tear, scoring a goal in nine of San Jose’s past 11 games. Couture has also scored a goal in six of 11 road games.
At +240, the implied odds of Couture scoring a goal are under 30%, and his recent form ought to suggest that he is more likely than that to find the net.
As strong as Toronto’s goals-against record has been, it's still running an injury-depleted defense in front of goaltender Matt Murray. To his credit, Murray has been excellent when healthy, posting a .927 save percentage in seven starts.
Couture scoring an anytime goal is offered at +240 at DraftKings and BetMGM, both of which are better than Caesars (+230), FanDuel (225), and PointsBet (+220).
Where to Bet on Sharks-Maple Leafs Picks
Sharks-Maple Leafs picks made 11/30/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Related Articles
