Tuesday brings just two games on the National Hockey League schedule. One of those games will be an Atlantic Division clash between the Buffalo Sabres and Montreal Canadiens. Read on for our Sabres-Canadiens picks and predictions.
After opening the season with seven wins in 10 games, the Sabres have been mired in an eight-game losing streak, during which they have been outscored 38-19. The Sabres lost 5-2 at Toronto on Saturday.
Defenseman Mattias Samuelsson returns to the Sabres lineup for this game. He has missed the past month with a lower-body injury. Forward Tyson Jost, claimed on waivers from Minnesota, will make his Sabres debut.
The Canadiens have been competitive, earning a 9-8-1. The Habs rallied for a 5-4 shootout win against Philadelphia on Saturday.
Jake Allen, who has a .898 save percentage in 12 games, is expected to get the start in net for Montreal. For Buffalo, 41-year-old Craig Anderson is likely to get the nod. Anderson has a .910 save percentage in seven appearances this season.
Here are my NHL picks and predictions for Tuesday's game between the Sabes and Canadiens (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, and Caesars Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).
Sabres vs. Canadiens Game Info
Date: Tuesday, Nov. 22, 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: NHL Network, TSN2, RDS, MSG-2
Location: Bell Centre, Montreal, QC
Sabres vs. Canadiens Odds
Sabres vs. Canadiens Odds Analysis
Consensus odds opened with the Canadiens priced as -124 as favorites. Despite 64% of the early money coming in on Montreal, the consensus line has moved to the Canadiens -108.
The goal total opened at 6.5, priced at -115 for Over and -105 for the Under. With 96% of the early money on the Over, that price is liable to change.
Sabres vs. Canadiens Picks
- Canadiens (-115 via DraftKings)
- Over 6.5 (-115 via Caesars)
- Tage Thompson Over 3.5 shots on goal (-154 via FanDuel)
Sabres vs. Canadiens ML Pick
Canadiens (-115) ★★★★
The Sabres won seven of the first 10 games this season. Though underlying numbers indicated that those results were not sustainable, regression has hit Buffalo like a November snowstorm. The Sabres have lost eight consecutive games, with seven of those coming by a margin of two goals or more. Buffalo has controlled 48.7% of five-on-five score-and-venue-adjusted expected goals.
Even though they have won four of their past six games, the Canadiens have just one regulation win in those six contests. On the season, Montreal is pulling just 46.3% of five-on-five score-and-venue-adjusted expected goals.
Home-ice advantage is enough to make Montreal a slight favorite. DraftKings and FanDuel both have Montreal priced at -115 to win, a little better than -120 at Caesars and BetMGM.
Sabres vs. Canadiens O/U Pick
Over 6.5 (-115) ★★★★
In the past 11 games, the Sabres have combined with their opponents for seven goals or more eight times. Buffalo games have hit a total of seven goals or more in five of eight on the road. The Sabres are combining for an average of 7.10 goals per 60 minutes. They are tied for seventh with 3.44 goals per 60 minutes and rank fourth with 3.66 goals against per 60 minutes.
Although the Canadiens don't play at the same high-scoring pace, Montreal is allowing 3.45 goals against per 60 minutes, the eighth-highest rate in the league. Canadiens games have also hit a total of seven goals or more in six of the last seven.
Caesars is offering the Over at -115, more favorable than the -120 at DraftKings or -130 at FanDuel.
Sabres vs. Canadiens Prop Pick
Thompson Over 3.5 shots on goal (-154) ★★★★
Buffalo Sabres center Tage Thompson has really distinguished himself with his ability to consistently generate shots on goal. He is putting up 4.67 shots on goal per game and has recorded at least four shots on goal in six consecutive games.
Allowing 32.74 shots against per 60 minutes, the Canadiens are giving up shots at a rate higher than the league average.
Thompson is generating shots at an elite rate, which will get him to at least four shots against most teams. When the opposition is a Montreal squad with a suspect defensive record, that is even better for Thompson.
FanDuel has Thompson Over 3.5 shots on goal priced at -154, just barely better than DraftKings at -155.
Where to Bet on Sabres vs. Canadiens Picks
Sabres-Canadiens picks made 11/22/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET.