NFL Upset Picks, Predictions: Top Underdog Picks for Week 9
Week 9 was not a popular one for upsets, as just one of the top nine Moneyline favorites (the Cincinnati Bengals) lost outright. We are back to highlight the top upset picks for the NFL's Week 9 action.
Though we had seen touchdown-or-larger underdogs win in all but one week entering the most recent one, no Moneyline favorite with greater than -166 odds lost in Week 8.
Three of Week 9's games have double-digit point spreads, while the road team is favored in eight of the 13.
Here are our top NFL upset picks for Week 9 (odds via Caesars Sportsbook and BetMGM).
Check out our NFL best bets and all of our top picks for Week 9!
NFL Upset Picks for Week 9
- Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions (+150 via Caesars)
- Los Angeles Rams (+135 via BetMGM) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Indianapolis Colts (+215 via Caesars) vs. New England Patriots
NFL Week 9 Underdog Predictions
Lions (+150)
The Detroit Lions fell to 4-19-1 under head coach Dan Campbell with last week's 31-27 loss to the Dolphins. As bad as that record is, the Lions have been in every game they played this season when fully healthy. Toss out consecutive road losses to the Patriots and Cowboys by a combined 53-6, as Detroit was without D'Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown - its two best skill position players - for both matchups.
Outside of those games, the Lions have lost four games by four or fewer points. Regression should soon be coming, and it could come this week against a Packers team that already has lost five times through eight games for the first time since 2006.
Detroit started like gangbusters last week. Its 27 first-half points broke a streak of 135 consecutive games during which it did not score that many points in the first half, according to ESPN Stats & Info. That was the longest active streak in the NFL.
Ultimately, the Lions were undone by Miami's speed at wide receiver, as Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle combined for 294 receiving yards. Detroit does not have to worry about that when facing Green Bay, especially if Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb remain out like they were against Buffalo last week.
Detroit has won three of the last seven home meetings against Green Bay, and this Packers team has a lot more fundamental issues than those that preceded it.
Rams (+135)
This Los Angeles Rams-Tampa Bay Buccaneers matchup went from a possible NFC Championship Game preview to one between arguably the two most disappointing teams in the league. Whether it is Tampa Bay's offensive line issues or Tom Brady's off-field issues, he is having the worst year of his career.
Brady is two games under .500 for the first time in his career. In last week's loss to Baltimore, Brady threw seven off-target passes, bringing his total to 17% of all his passes this season (23rd in the NFL).
Much of the Buccaneers' issues stem from their lack of red-zone scoring. Tampa Bay scored touchdowns on two of five red-zone drives last week and has converted 46% of red-zone drives into touchdowns this season (29th).
Los Angeles has lost four games by double-digits this season, yet we still find ourselves trusting it more than Tampa Bay.
Colts (+215)
The Indianapolis Colts have the dubious distinction of being the only team to have trailed entering the fourth quarter in every game this season. However, despite Matt Ryan's league-leading turnovers that plagued them until his benching last week, the team kept it together well, with this being the first time it's lost back-to-back games all year.
Indianapolis has scored 20 or fewer points in seven of eight games, but New England is by no means an offensive juggernaut, as it is still unclear if Mac Jones is its future quarterback.
Chicago ran for 243 yards and 5.4 yards per carry in a road win against New England, so Indianapolis can follow that recipe for success if it can finally get Jonathan Taylor and the ground game going.
Where to Bet on NFL Upset Picks
NFL Week 9 upset picks made 11/01/2022 at 6:14 a.m. ET.
