NFL Upset Picks, Predictions: Top Underdog Picks for Week 7
The trend of touchdown-or-larger underdogs winning outright continued in Week 6, as the Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Jets upset the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Green Bay Packers, respectively. That means underdogs of at least seven points have won outright in five of six weeks. We are back to highlight the top upset picks for the NFL's Week 7 action.
Though the Los Angeles Rams were safe as the week's biggest favorite, the next four favorites - all with Moneyline odds of -230 - fell to underdogs.
Overall, underdogs went 7-8 in Week 6, meaning there was much profit to be had among those bettors who backed the right teams.
Here are our top NFL upset picks for Week 7 (odds via Caesars Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook).
NFL Upset Picks for Week 7
NFL Week 7 Underdog Predictions
Giants (+145)
The New York Giants have already surpassed their win total from last season when they went 4-13. New York entered this year with the task of figuring out if Daniel Jones was the quarterback of the future, and all he has done is lead the team to four game-winning drives in the fourth quarter or overtime this season, the most in the NFL.
The Giants are coming off an emotional high of a comeback victory over Baltimore, in which they outscored the Ravens 14-0 in the final 6:01.
Meanwhile, the Jacksonville Jaguars are coming off their fifth consecutive loss at Indianapolis, an especially frustrating defeat given the Colts played with a reconfigured offensive line and without their two best running backs.
The Jaguars have averaged 18 points during a three-game losing streak, and Trevor Lawrence has three touchdowns and three interceptions in that span. Lawrence is trending downward after having the highest QBR increase from 2021 through the first three weeks of 2022 of any quarterback with a minimum of 50 pass attempts.
Colts (+135)
The Tennessee Titans are fresh off a bye and looking for a fifth consecutive win over their division rival. Another victory would mean a second straight season series sweep after beating the Colts 24-17 in Week 4. However, the Colts have plenty to build off of from last week, as that was as good as their offense has looked all season.
Matt Ryan finished his third career game with 375-pus passing yards, three-plus touchdown passes, and zero interceptions (his first such game since 2018). Indianapolis scored on its final five drives against Jacksonville (four touchdowns, one field goal) and has outscored opponents 45-6 in the fourth quarter/overtime this season.
Indianapolis' defense allowed 77 rushing yards over the first three weeks, so we expect it to do a better job of bottling up Derrick Henry, who went off for a season-high 114 yards on the ground in Week 4.
In addition, the Colts buried themselves in a 24-10 halftime hole because of two costly turnovers that allowed the Titans to score on five-play drives from 32 and 28 yards out. However, the Colts held the Titans to 28 yards in the second half and will build on that success this week.
49ers (+145)
This advice is solely predicated on the fact that the San Francisco 49ers' defensive line should be much healthier this week than last when the team lost 28-14 to the Atlanta Falcons. San Francisco was without four defensive linemen, including its two most important players in the trenches, Nick Bosa and Arik Armstead. In addition, it endured another injury scare last week, losing cornerback Charvarius Ward to a groin injury.
If San Francisco gets any of those players back, it would aid a defense that allowed season highs in points (28) and rushing yards (168) to Atlanta.
The Buffalo Bills showed Patrick Mahomes can look somewhat human if a team applies enough pressure, and the 49ers led the league in sack percentage after four weeks when fully healthy.
Where to Bet on NFL Upset Picks
NFL Week 7 upset picks made 10/18/2022 at 5:40 a.m. ET.
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