NFL Touchdown Scorer Prop Picks for Week 9: Ekeler Leads Charge vs. Falcons
Los Angeles Chargers running back Austin Ekeler and Minnesota Vikings running back Dalvin Cook headline our NFL touchdown scorer prop picks for Week 9.
Two things continue to be true in the touchdown markets: They offer tremendous entertainment value for bettors, and there is always a significant disparity in odds available across sportsbooks.
Here are our Week 9 NFL touchdown prop picks (odds via BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook and PointsBet; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our NFL best bets and all of our top picks for Week 9!
Anytime Touchdown Picks
- Hunter Renfrow anytime TD scorer (+225 via Caesars) ★★★
- A.J. Dillon anytime TD scorer (+240 via Caesars) ★★★
Renfrow anytime TD scorer (+225)
A lot has changed for the Las Vegas Raiders since wide receiver Hunter Renfrow broke out for 103 receptions, 1,038 yards, and nine touchdowns last year. Including him already missing time with a concussion and nursing a hip injury this season.
Renfrow is finally back at 100% health, and he played 80% of offensive snaps in last week’s 24-0 blowout loss to the New Orleans Saints. I’m viewing this as a bounce-back opportunity for the fourth-year receiver. The Jacksonville Jaguars have dipped to 25th in pass defense DVOA and 26th in dropback success rate allowed during their five-game losing streak.
These are long enough odds to take a speculative flier the now-healthy Renfrow can cash in on his upcoming statistical correction following a dreadful start to the season. He’s trading as low as +150 via BetMGM to find the end zone, so there's also value in the odds available via Caesars.
Dillon anytime TD scorer (+240)
While Green Bay Packers rusher AJ Dillon hasn’t found the end zone since Week 1, this is an outlier number presenting value. He’s trading as low as +150 via BetMGM, and the third-year running back also lands in a plus-matchup against the Detroit Lions.
Detroit has allowed 13 rushing scores through seven games and ranks third last in rush defense DVOA and fifth-lowest in run defense grade, per PFF. I’m also encouraged by Dillon receiving 10 carries and rushing for 5.4 yards per tote last week against the Buffalo Bills. He garnered his first red-zone carry since Week 4 in Sunday's loss, too.
Dillion scored seven times last season, and the Packers were the best team in the NFC during the regular season. His lack of involvement in the offense to this point has been puzzling, and this is the perfect opponent to kick-start a second-half surge. I expect him to be more involved and score Sunday.
Two or More Touchdowns Pick
- Austin Ekeler, Chargers (+380 via DraftKings) ★★
Ekeler 2+ touchdowns (+380)
I anticipate the Los Angeles Chargers to turn to running back Austin Ekeler early and often Sunday. The Bolts could be without their top three wide receivers, and Ekeler has found the end zone eight times while handling 11 red-zone carries and receiving eight red-zone targets through the past four games.
The Atlanta Falcons also rank last in rush success rate against and 26th in rush defense DVOA, so the matchup should also prove favorable for the dynamic back.
Additionally, this is a spot where it could be beneficial to double-down with another Ekeler touchdown bet. He’s trading at -145 via DraftKings to score an anytime touchdown, or bettors could also consider the prebuilt parlay via DraftKings of an Ekeler anytime touchdown and the Chargers to win at +145 odds.
Anytime TD scorer + Team to Win Parlay Pick
- Dalvin Cook anytime TD scorer and Vikings win (+185 via FanDuel) ★★
Cook anytime TD scorer and Vikings win (+185)
Dalvin Cook has found the end zone in four of the past five games for five total scores. Add 13 red-zone rushes and four red-zone targets during the stretch, and there’s a lot to like about his role in the offense when the Minnesota Vikings are approaching pay dirt.
With this a potential letdown spot for the Washington Commanders, I’m also confident in Minnesota winning off their Week 8 bye. Washington has won three straight and has a divisional game on tap against the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football in Week 10.
There’s great value in the odds via FanDuel, too. DraftKings is hanging +150 on this same prebuilt parlay. It's also worth noting Cook is +100 to score an anytime touchdown via PointsBet. That's another double-down option, or an advised pivot if you're not as confident in the Vikings as I am.
Check out our Vikings vs. Commanders picks.
Where to Bet on NFL Touchdown Prop Picks
Week 9 NFL touchdown prop picks made 11/4/2022 at 2 p.m. ET.
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