NFL Survivor Picks Week 13: Back the Seahawks as Chalk
The Seattle Seahawks face the injury-depleted Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium on Sunday, and Seattle is near the top of our Week 13 survivor picks rankings.
There aren’t as many big favorites on the Week 13 docket, and several of the teams that are the largest chalk might not be available to survivor poolies. Still, there are a number of favorable matchups to target atop our survivor picks rankings.
Here’s a look at the odds list and a breakdown of the top teams to target and fade in survivor pools for Week 13.
Week 13 Survivor Pick Rankings
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of Wednesday, Nov. 30, at 11:45 a.m. ET.
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Win Probability |
| Cowboys | -10.5 | -550 | 84.6% |
| Seahawks | -7.5 | -335 | 77.0% |
| Ravens | -8.5 | -400 | 80.0% |
| Bills | -4 | -198 | 66.4% |
| Commanders | -2.5 | -136 | 57.6% |
| Chargers | -1.5 | -126 | 55.8% |
| Eagles | -5.5 | -225 | 69.2% |
| Browns | -7 | -335 | 77.0% |
| 49ers | -3.5 | -205 | 67.2% |
| Packers | -4 | -188 | 65.3% |
| Chiefs | -2.5 | -132 | 56.9% |
| Buccaneers | -3.5 | -184 | 64.8% |
| Vikings | -3 | -154 | 60.6% |
| Steelers | -1.5 | -108 | 51.9% |
| Jaguars | -1.5 | -126 | 55.8% |
| Lions | +1.5 | +108 | 48.1% |
| Falcons | +1.5 | -108 | 51.9% |
| Jets | +3 | +132 | 43.1% |
| Saints | +3.5 | +154 | 39.4% |
| Bengals | +2.5 | +112 | 47.2% |
| Bears | +4 | +158 | 38.8% |
| Dolphins | +3.5 | +172 | 36.8% |
| Texans | +7 | +270 | 27.0% |
| Titans | +5.5 | +190 | 34.5% |
| Raiders | +1.5 | +108 | 48.1% |
| Giants | +2.5 | +116 | 46.3% |
| Patriots | +4 | +166 | 37.6% |
| Broncos | +8.5 | +315 | 24.1% |
| Rams | +7.5 | +285 | 26.0% |
| Colts | +10.5 | +410 | 19.6% |
Top NFL Week 13 Survivor Picks
5. Commanders (at Giants)
This obviously doesn’t check out as a traditional survivor recommendation, with the Washington Commanders on the road against a divisional opponent. Still, the New York Giants are dealing with notable injuries on both sides of the ball, and these two teams are trending in completely opposite directions.
The Commanders have won six of their past seven games while posting the seventh-best defensive DVOA during that surge, according to Football Outsiders. Meanwhile, New York has dropped three of its past four contests and ranks 30th in overall grade on the season, according to Pro Football Focus.
4. Bills (at Patriots)
You’ll rarely get the opportunity to back a betting favorite to win the Super Bowl at this stage of the survivor season. So, while the Buffalo Bills face the well-coached New England Patriots on the road, a quick peek at the head-to-head results between the division rivals is telling.
Buffalo has won four of the past five meetings. The outlier New England victory came in Week 13 last season when blistering winds significantly impacted the result, and Pats quarterback Mac Jones threw for just 19 yards.
Furthermore, New England could be missing multiple offensive-line starters and key skill-position players.
Check out our Bills-Patriots picks and predictions.
3. Ravens (vs. Broncos)
The Baltimore Ravens are making a strong case to be the No. 1 pick in survivor pools for Week 13. Expect them to produce a statement showing after blowing multiple fourth-quarter leads and losing to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 12. The Ravens rank second in overall DVOA, and they also sport the fourth-highest Pro Football Focus grade.
I also have no faith in the Denver Broncos. They haven’t won on the road all season, and the Broncos rank last in the NFL in points per game (14.3). Denver's defense has been struggling too, ranking 23rd in defensive DVOA during the team's active three-game losing streak.
Check out our Week 13 teaser picks.
2. Seahawks (at Rams)
It’s already been a nightmare season for the Los Angeles Rams. Now they might be without seven-time All-Pro defensive tackle Aaron Donald for the foreseeable future. He sprained his ankle against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 12, according to Ari Meirov of Pro Football Focus.
As a result, expect the Seattle Seahawks to be a popular pick among survivor poolies in Week 13. Seattle ranks 12th in total DVOA, and the Rams sit in 27th. There’s a significant gap in healthy talent and performance between these NFC West opponents, and home-field advantage for the Rams isn't notable.
1. Cowboys (vs. Colts)
The Pittsburgh Steelers laid out a perfect blueprint to beat the Indianapolis Colts on Monday Night Football in Week 12. The Dallas Cowboys are superior overall compared to Pittsburgh. The Cowboys' top-graded pass rush per PFF will give Indy's offensive line and quarterback Matt Ryan fits Sunday night.
Dallas also brings an emerging offense into this game. The Cowboys rank ninth in offensive DVOA and second in total DVOA since quarterback Dak Prescott returned to action in Week 7. The team is also the largest favorite on the docket.
Others to Consider
- Chargers at Raiders
- Browns at Texans
Week 13 NFL Favorite to Fade
Eagles (vs. Titans)
Early betting action on the Tennessee Titans has pushed the spread that the Philadelphia Eagles need to cover down from both the look-ahead -7 line and opening -6 number. I agree with the market correction and value how Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel maximizes the talent on his roster.
The Titans boast the personnel to slow this game down and succeed defensively. Tennessee has produced the league's third-highest defensive grade, according to PFF, while also surrendering the third-lowest success rate to opponents.
Make no mistake, the 10-1 Eagles are home favorites for a reason. They just haven’t faced many formidable opponents, as Philly has lined up against the fourth-easiest slate by DVOA this campaign.
Others to Consider
- 49ers vs. Dolphins
- Chiefs at Bengals
- Buccaneers vs. Saints
Where to Bet on NFL Week 13 Survivor Picks
Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:
NFL Week 13 Survivor picks made 11/30/2022 at 12:15 p.m. ET
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