Steelers vs. Bengals Week 1 NFL Picks: AFC Champs Open Strong Over Rivals
The defending AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals look to build on recent success against the rival Pittsburgh Steelers. We break down their Week 1 matchup with our top Steelers-Bengals NFL picks.
After losing 11 straight meetings in this fierce AFC North rivalry, Cincinnati has turned the tables on Pittsburgh with blowout victories in each of the last three encounters. Quarterback Joe Burrow and the Bengals look to continue that trend in their first home game since a surprising run to the Super Bowl last winter.
Here are our Steelers-Bengals NFL picks for Week 1 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, and BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Steelers vs. Bengals Game Info
Date: Sunday, Sept. 11, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Location: Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Weather: 70 degrees, 65% chance of precipitation, 7-mph winds
Steelers vs. Bengals Odds Analysis
The point spread hasn’t moved much since opening at 6.5 during the summer. It drifted up to 7 a couple of times before immediately snapping back under a full touchdown. The same is true for the total, which hasn’t moved below 44 or above 45 since the opener.
The Bengals have been the popular side to take in this one, drawing 74% of cash and 68% of tickets. Two-thirds of the action on the total has been on the Over, though with a slightly smaller share of the handle.
Steelers vs. Bengals Picks
Steelers vs. Bengals ATS Pick
Bengals -6.5 (-110)
Many are projecting the Bengals to have a Super Bowl hangover this season, and I agree that Cincy might come back down to earth a bit after last year’s breakthrough campaign. But I don’t think that regression starts in Week 1 against a Steelers squad the Bengals easily handled in both matchups in 2021, sweeping the season series for the first time since 2009.
Stopping wide receivers Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd wasn’t the problem last year for Pittsburgh, which held the Bengals under 200 passing yards in both matchups. That concentration on stopping the pass took its toll on the Steelers’ run defense as the Bengals averaged four yards per carry in the first clash, then ran for nearly 200 yards in a 41-10 rout in the rematch.
The Bengals’ ability to beat teams with the run or the pass is something the Steelers can’t match right now with Mitch Trubisky under center. Look for the Bengals' tough run defense to stack the box and force Trubisky to beat them through the air, leading to another comfortable Bengals win over their hated division rivals.
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Steelers vs. Bengals O/U Pick
Under 44.5 (-110)
Steelers coach Mike Tomlin is known to be conservative on the road, where Pittsburgh has gone 43-18-1 to the Under in its last 62 outings. That approach should continue in this spot with Trubisky making his first meaningful start since 2020. The Steelers know they aren’t equipped to get into a shootout with Burrow and the Bengals, so expect them to remain committed to the run game in an effort to control the clock and keep Cincinnati’s offense off the field.
The young duo of Burrow and Chase is a big reason the Bengals have a reputation as a high-scoring team, but most of Cincinnati’s success last season came on the back of its defense. The Bengals cashed the Under in their final five games, including the playoffs, and seven of their last nine in 2021.
Cincinnati also held Pittsburgh to an average of 12.3 points per game in the last three meetings. Meanwhile, Burrow might not be as sharp as usual in the series opener after losing some time during training camp to an appendectomy.
Steelers vs. Bengals Prop Pick
Mixon Over 70.5 rushing yards (-115)
Mixon eclipsed the 70-yard rushing plateau just five times in 16 regular-season games last year, but two of those efforts came against the Steelers. The sixth-year back gained 90 yards on 18 carries in the teams’ first meeting of the season, then rumbled for 165 yards and a pair of touchdowns in Cincy’s 41-10 romp last November.
Even better, those numbers came while running behind a mediocre offensive line, a weakness the Bengals addressed over the offseason in an effort to give Burrow better protection.
Where to Bet on Steelers-Bengals Picks
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Steelers-Bengals picks made 9/8/2022 at 9:19 a.m. ET
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