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Demario Davis of the New Orleans Saints celebrates with his teammates after he recovers a fumble by Tom Brady of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Demario Davis of the New Orleans Saints celebrates with his teammates after he recovers a fumble by Tom Brady of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images via AFP.

The New Orleans Saints can vault themselves right back into the NFL South mix by beating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday Night Football. Read on for our top Saints-Buccaneers NFL picks based on the top odds.

The 5-6 Buccaneers are the only first-place team that is not at least three games over .500 and are just 1.5 games ahead of the last-place 4-8 Saints.

Tom Brady is 1-4 straight-up against the Saints since joining the Buccaneers in 2020. The lone win came this season, a 20-10 road victory in Week 2.

Here are our top picks for the Saints-Buccaneers Week 13 matchup (odds via BetMGM and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our Monday Night Football prop picks, same-game parlay picks, and Tom Brady prop picks!

Saints vs. Buccaneers Game Info

Date: Monday, Dec. 5, 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Weather: 80 degrees, 8% chance of precipitation, 3-mph N wind

Saints vs. Buccaneers Odds

Saints vs. Buccaneers Odds Analysis

Tampa Bay was favored by 6.5 points on the look-ahead line but that number is down to -3 as of Monday morning. The Bucs have drawn 74% of the tickets and 65% of the handle.

The Over/Under opened at a consensus line of 42 but is down slightly to 41 on gameday. Bettors are split, with 50% of the handle on 51% of the tickets on the Over.

Saints vs. Buccaneers Picks

  • Spread: Saints +3.5 (-107 via PointsBet)
  • Over/Under: Under 40.5 (-107 via PointsBet)
  • Prop bet: Tom Brady Under 273.5 passing yards (-115 via BetMGM)

Saints vs. Buccaneers ATS Pick

Saints +3.5 (-107) ★★

New Orleans has made Brady's life miserable since he joined the Buccaneers. Despite coming out with a 20-10 win in Week 2, the Tampa Bay offense scored only 13 points (seven came on a pick-6), and Brady's 27.0 QBR was his worst in a game this season. In fact, four of his five lowest QBR outputs since joining Tampa Bay have come against the Saints.

One can argue whether Andy Dalton gives the Saints a better chance to win than Jameis Winston does, but the latter did nothing to help the team in the first matchup. He was responsible for three of the team's five turnovers, and his 9.9 QBR left something to be desired.

New Orleans is 0-5 against the spread on the road this season, but that poor trend is negated by the fact that Brady is 2-14 ATS in his previous 16 prime-time games, including covering just twice in his 13 opportunities (including playoffs) as Tampa Bay's quarterback.

Not even fourth-quarter leads are safe for Tampa Bay anymore, as the Buccaneers are coming off their third loss (29-3) when leading in the final 15 minutes since Brady joined the team. It was also a Brady-led team's first loss (had been 218-0) when holding a touchdown-or-more lead in the final two minutes of regulation.

We are jumping at anything more than a field goal with the underdogs.

Saints vs. Buccaneers O/U Pick

Under 40.5 (-107) ★★★

The Buccaneers have scored 22 or fewer points in seven consecutive games for the first time since 2014-15. They have averaged 18.2 points this season (sixth-fewest), which is on pace to be the fewest in a season by a Brady-led team.

Meanwhile, the Saints had the longest active scoring streak snapped at 332 games after being shut out last week for the first time since 2001. Each team has averaged fewer than 20 points over the previous five weeks while holding opponents to fewer than 20 points, as well.

Tampa Bay games are 9-2 to the Under, and Unders in division games this year are 32-20-1. Therefore, we like for this divisional rematch to also stay well below the projected total.  

Saints vs. Buccaneers Prop Pick

Brady Under 273.5 passing yards  (-175) ★★★★

Tampa Bay's offense is third in the league in passing yards per game (277) over the last five weeks. But that plays right into the Saints' strength defensively, as they have allowed just 190 passing yards per game in that span, the second-lowest number in the league.

Success against the Buccaneers' passing game starts with limiting Mike Evans, whom New Orleans has held under 13 fantasy points in eight straight meetings. In addition, All-Pro offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs has been ruled out with a high ankle sprain, spelling trouble for Brady, who was contacted on a season-high 14% of dropbacks against Cleveland.

We are getting much more value making this wager at BetMGM, as Caesars Sportsbook's O/U for Brady's passing yards is 268.5.

Where to Bet on Saints-Buccaneers Picks

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Saints-Buccaneers picks made 12/4/2022 at 7:23 a.m. ET.