Trade $25, Get $35 in Bonus Funds CODE: SBR35

Patriots vs. Jaguars Prediction: Week 3 Odds, Picks & Best Bet

Our Patriots vs. Jaguars prediction for Week 3 includes our best bet, projected score, and the latest odds for Sunday's matchup.

Gary Pearson

Last Updated: September 26, 2026 12:00 PM EDT • 2 minute read

Pictured: Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence in action as we break down our Patriots vs. Jaguars Prediction. Photo by Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images.

Enjoying SBR content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account

Week 3 represents an excellent litmus test for these AFC contenders, and I’m backing last season’s Super Bowl participants to cover the spread in my Patriots vs. Jaguars prediction.

The Jaguars are the 2.5-point home betting favorites for Sunday’s game at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla. (1 p.m. ET, CBS). Here’s why it has all the makings of a closely contested battle.

🏈 Patriots vs. Jaguars picks & predictions

See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 3 based on the latest NFL odds.

Pick	Bet size
Patriots +3 (-118 via BetMGM)	1 unit
Under 45.5 (-105 via FanDuel)	0.5 unit

Total wagered: 1.5 units | Max profit: 0.85 units

💰 Patriots vs. Jaguars prediction & best bet

Patriots +3 (-118 via BetMGM)

The Jaguars’ 5th-ranked offensive DVOA dominated the Cleveland Browns but struggled mightily in the second half against the Denver Broncos, scoring just three points.

Trevor Lawrence and Co. face another stern test against a Patriots team with the second-best defensive EPA.

The Patriots have allowed the fewest points per game (8) through two weeks, and I expect Zak Kuhr’s unit to prevent the Jags’ explosive offense from reaching top gear.

The Patriots’ 25th-ranked offensive DVOA was better against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Drake Maye, who has already thrown four picks, should be safer with the ball, which will help the Patriots keep the game close throughout.

📡 SBR Edge: Jaguars ground game vs. Patriots run defense

The Patriots are 7-1-1 ATS on the road since the start of last season.

Jaguars attack vs. Patriots defense

The Patriots’ defense is inarguably elite. That’s why I believe they’ll cover the spread. While it’s still early, the Patriots have the second-best EPA against the pass. They’re suffocating, smart, athletic, and blitz at the seventh-highest rate.

Making life uncomfortable in the pocket for Lawrence will be key to the Patriots’ game plan and chances of success. I have no doubt Lawrence will be prepared, but the Patriots’ lack of vulnerabilities should facilitate parity throughout.

Score prediction: Jaguars 22, Patriots 20

📊 Live Patriots vs. Jaguars odds

See the latest NFL odds for every Week 3 matchup.

Patriots vs. Jaguars opening odds

Moneyline: Patriots +120 | Jaguars -145
Spread: Patriots +2.5 (-105) | Jaguars -2.5 (-115)
Over/Under: Over 44.5 (-110) | Under 44.5 (-108)

📺 How to watch Patriots vs. Jaguars: Week 3

Date: Sunday, Sept. 27
Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
Location: EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Fla.)
TV: CBS
Streaming: Paramount+, NFL+

📃 Affiliate disclosure

Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)

Written by:
Gary Pearson

Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, specializes in writing about the NFL, hockey, and soccer, focusing on player props, game predictions, and futures plays. Most often utilizing FanDuel and bet365, the latter of which usually provides better early odds, he looks for a perfect-storm combo of in-form players who fare historically well against the opponent in question. He has contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, The Hockey Writers, The Hockey News, The Calgary Herald, and other publications. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a bachelor's degree in journalism from Griffith University.