Patriots vs. Raiders Odds, Picks, Predictions Week 15: Will the Defenses Dominate?
In terms of the AFC playoff picture, Sunday's game between the New England Patriots and Las Vegas Raiders has significant implications. Read on for our top Patriots-Raiders picks.
New England (7-6) is in a three-way tie for the AFC’s No. 7 seed but owns the tiebreaker over the L.A. Chargers and New York Jets. However, ESPN Analytics projects the Patriots’ remaining schedule as the NFL’s most challenging, so holding onto that playoff spot won't be easy.
Las Vegas (5-8) missed a golden opportunity to get into the AFC playoff race, blowing a 16-3 fourth-quarter lead to the L.A. Rams in quarterback Baker Mayfield’s first start with the team. If the Raiders miss the playoffs, they'll point to the four losses when leading by 13+ points as the main reason.
Here is our best Patriots vs. Raiders NFL Week 15 pick (odds via PointsBet Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our NFL best bets and all of our top NFL picks for Week 15.
Patriots vs. Raiders Game Info
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 18, 4:05 p.m. ET
- TV: FOX
- Location: Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, NV
- Weather: Indoors
Patriots vs. Raiders Odds
Patriots vs. Raiders Odds Analysis
Las Vegas opened as a -1 point favorite, and has either held firm at that number or gone to -1.5. The Raiders are popular, attracting 53% of the tickets and 69% of the cash.
The O/U hasn't budged from an opening number of 44.5. The two-way betting splits support that lack of movement, as the Over garnered 47% of the tickets and 54% of the cash.
Patriots vs. Raiders Pick
Under 44.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels was on Patriots head coach Bill Belichick’s staff from 2001-2008 and 2012-2021, so he's well-versed in Belichick’s tendencies. However, we're using that familiarity to make a case for the Under instead of the Raiders to win.
New England pressures opposing quarterbacks at an elite rate. Its 45 sacks rank a league third, and the 58 sacks it's on pace for would tie the second-most for a season in team history. The Pats come off a six-sack performance against the Arizona Cardinals, and improved their elite red zone defense, allowing the Cardinals to score on just one of three trips inside the 20.
New England currently ranks fifth in scoring defense (18.4 PPG) and could be the first team since the 1970 merger to finish in the top 10 in points allowed in 11 straight seasons.
The Under cashed in seven of New England’s last eight Sunday games following a Monday Night Football matchup. In addition, the Patriots’ offensive ceiling is lowered as they deal with multiple injuries to their running backs.
Patriots vs. Raiders Best Odds
PointsBet (-107)
| DraftKings | 44.5 | Over -110, Under -110 |
| FanDuel | 44.5 | Over -110, Under -110 |
| BetMGM | 44.5 | Over -110, Under -110 |
| Caesars | 44.5 | Over -110, Under -110 |
| PointsBet | 44.5 | Over -107, Under -107 |
The only thing separating the major sportsbooks from a value standpoint is PointsBet’s slightly more generous juice (-107). With the betting splits being so even to this point, it's unlikely the total fluctuates before kickoff.
Patriots-Raiders pick made 12/16/2022 at 6:24 a.m. ET.
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