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Patriots vs. Bills Odds, Picks, Predictions Week 18: Playoff Positioning On the Line

Michael McClymont

Last Updated: January 8, 2023 6:23 AM EST • 2 min 26 sec read.

Quarterback Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills is tackled by safety Devin McCourty #32 of the New England Patriots in the first half at Gillette Stadium on Dec. 1, 2022.
Quarterback Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills is tackled by safety Devin McCourty #32 of the New England Patriots in the first half at Gillette Stadium on Dec. 1, 2022. Billie Weiss/Getty Images/AFP

Following an emotional week, the Buffalo Bills are back in action, seeking to claim the top seed in the AFC playoffs. In order to remain in the playoff picture, they will need to defeat the New England Patriots, who are in desperate need of a victory themselves. Here is our Patriots-Bills NFL pick based on the top odds.

The Buffalo Bills will have a lot to play for Sunday. It will be their first game action since their Week 17 contest with the Cincinnati Bengals was canceled after Bills safety Damar Hamlin collapsed and went into cardiac arrest in the first quarter. He's been hospitalized ever since, but physicians said Thursday he's "shown remarkable improvement" and he was able to talk to teammates via video on Friday.

The Bills can clinch the No. 1 seed in the conference and a first-round bye with a win on Sunday and a loss by the Kansas City Chiefs.

The 8-8 New England Patriots have won just two of their last six games. They currently occupy the seventh and final playoff seed in the AFC and can lock it up with a victory. They'll need help if they tie or lose to the Bills.

Here is our best Patriots vs. Bills NFL pick for Week 18 (odds via Betway; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our NFL best bets for Week 18, picks roundup, and against the spread power rankings.

Patriots vs. Bills Game Info

  • Date: Sunday, Jan. 8, 1 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS
  • Location: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, N.Y.
  • Weather: 35 degrees, partly sunny, 3% chance of precipitation, 8-mph winds

Patriots vs. Bills Odds

Patriots vs. Bills Odds Analysis

The Bills were initially installed as favorites by 10.5 points. But the spread has dropped steadily to Bills -8.5. Heavy action is on the Bills, with Buffalo drawing 92% of the cash and 89% of the tickets.

The total opened at 43.5, and that is where it remains. The Over is the popular play, with 91% of the cash and 78% of the tickets.

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Patriots vs. Bills Pick

Bills (-6.5) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Bills, who have been the Super Bowl favorites and the top seed in the AFC for much of the season, have yet to secure their seeding, so a victory is paramount on Sunday if the conference is to go through Western New York. 

The team has also played just half a quarter since Christmas and therefore will be well equipped to empty the tank in Week 18. 

Prior to last week's postponement, the Bills had won six straight, including a 24-10 victory over the Patriots in New England in Week 13. Buffalo has taken the last three head-to-head meetings with its division rival, averaging a margin of victory of 18 points in those contests.

Buoyed by a voracious home crowd and the emotion of playing for Hamlin, the Bills should have no trouble covering the -6.5 spread still available at Betway.

Patriots vs. Bills Best Odds

Betway (-115)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsPointsBetBetway
-7-7-7-7-7-6.5
-110-105-110-110-110-115

Most sportsbooks have the Bills at -7 and -110 odds. The half point being offered at Betway is worth the extra juice to avoid a push if the Bills win by a touchdown.

Patriots-Bills pick made 1/5/2022 at 1:05 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Michael McClymont
Michael McClymont is a Publishing Editor for Sportsbook Review, providing coverage on NFL and college football. Prior to joining SBR, he covered football as an NFL editor at theScore. Mike has more than 15 years of experience in the journalism industry as a writer and editor. Mike enjoys a good futures bet and to hammer live in-game odds. While his favorite bet was Julian Edelman Super Bowl LIII MVP at +4000, his biggest regret was cashing out a Lamar Jackson 2019 MVP bet in Week 8, a week before he cemented the award with his highlight-reel rushing TD against the Bengals.