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Patrick Mahomes Player Prop Picks, Predictions Week 18: Will MVP Lead Chiefs Past Raiders?

Shane Jackson

Last Updated: January 7, 2023 8:25 AM EST • 2 min 38 sec read.

Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs is the favorite in the NFL most regular season passing yards odds
Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs throws a pass against the Seattle Seahawks on Dec. 24, 2022. Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images via AFP.

Patrick Mahomes has the chance to cement his case for the NFL MVP award when the Kansas City Chiefs visit the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 18. Read on for our top Mahomes player prop picks.

Heading into the regular season's final week, Mahomes has all but secured a second MVP award. But the Chiefs have plenty to play for, with the No. 1 seed still up for grabs heading into Week 18.

Kansas City (13-3) currently paces the AFC standings, and will earn the No. 1 seed with a win in Vegas. That doesn’t necessarily mean home-field advantage this year, but shouldn’t take away from this game's importance. The Raiders (6-10) look to end a two-game skid and get a much-needed win over a rival who's had their number recently.

Here are our best Patrick Mahomes Week 18 player prop picks (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

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Patrick Mahomes Player Prop Picks for Week 18

  • Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 touchdown passes (+100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Patrick Mahomes Under 0.5 interceptions (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Patrick Mahomes Under 331.5 passing yards (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Chiefs vs. Raiders Odds

Patrick Mahomes Player Props

Over 2.5 touchdown passes (+100) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This has been my favorite Mahomes prop for as long as he’s played, though sportsbooks are starting to catch up. At +100, Mahomes has a 50% probability to throw at least three touchdown passes this week. He's done so 36 times in 79 career games entering Week 18.

Mahomes’ rate during his second MVP campaign is much closer to the betting odds, however. He's tossed three touchdowns in eight of his 16 games this season, including a four-touchdown effort against the Raiders in Week 5. With a No. 1 seed on the line, expect the best version of Mahomes and this passing offense.

The line isn’t offered at even money at any other top-rated sportsbook, with PointsBet setting the Over at -110. Go to DraftKings to place your go-to Mahomes prop for Saturday’s contest.

Under 0.5 interceptions (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Draftkings also has the best value for Mahomes to not throw an interception in Week 18. FanDuel sets the Under at -130, so we like the idea of getting a line that's 15 cents better.

Mahomes threw an interception against the Denver Broncos in last week’s 27-24 win, but that's somewhat expected. Four of his 12 interceptions this year came against the Broncos. Mahomes finished seven games without throwing an IT, including the 30-29 victory over the Raiders.

While Mahomes has been dominant for much of his career, he's been otherworldly against the Raiders. In nine meetings, Mahomes is 8-1 with a 26:3 touchdown-interception ratio and 2,838 total passing yards. Bet on another big day from Mahomes in Vegas Saturday.

Under 331.5 passing yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Let’s not have too good of a day, No. 15. The Chiefs are 9-point favorites, and while they haven’t fared well at covering the spread lately, there's a world where this game becomes a blowout. That could lead to some extra rushing attempts to keep Mahomes from clearing his passing yard prop.

Mahomes averages 315.5 passing yards per game, and he has seven matchups where he failed to clear the line already this season. One of those performances took place against the Raiders, where he finished with 292 passing yards.

This line is as low as 323.5 at DraftKings, but FanDuel has the high mark at 331.5. Take the Under at FD and hope Mahomes doesn’t have to throw too much in the fourth quarter.

Patrick Mahomes player prop picks made 1/6/2023 at 4:33 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Shane Jackson
After graduating with a journalism degree from the University of Kansas in 2017, Shane Jackson covered college sports for a few years before moving to Las Vegas to pursue a career in sports betting. He created sports betting content for WynnBET and served as a sports gambling content director for Bet Chicago Sports. Shane’s favorite sports to watch and bet on are NFL, college football, college basketball, NBA, WNBA, and golf. Follow Shane on Twitter (@SJacksonBET) to get access to all of his betting analysis.