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Josh Allen vs. Tua Tagovailoa NFL Player Props, Odds: Picks & Predictions

Andrew Brennan

Last Updated: January 7, 2024 3:47 PM EST • 3 min 54 sec read.

Week 18 is sure to be somewhat of a disaster for bettors seeking normalcy, but there will be two starting quarterbacks who suit up with a lot on the line, and we dive deeper into that game with our top Josh Allen vs. Tua Tagovailoa player props based on the best NFL odds.

First place in the AFC East is on the line Sunday night, and we can be sure that quarterbacks Josh Allen and Tua Tagovailoa will start the game when the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins square off in Week 18.

With both quarterbacks having their issues moving the ball through the air in recent weeks, have our best sports betting apps properly adjusted their lines to reflect these updated expectations? Or, can we still find value on some Unders?

 In addition to our NFL Week 18 predictions and NFL Week 18 player props, here are our best Josh Allen vs. Tua Tagovailoa NFL player props for Week 18 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Josh Allen vs. Tua Tagovailoa NFL player props: Week 18

Josh Allen Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+104 via FanDuel)⭐⭐⭐

This bet is all about the number at FanDuel. The rest of our best sports betting sites are trading Under 1.5 passing touchdowns for Allen at minus money.

Among those, bet365 is the shortest at -115, with Caesars not far behind at -114. Pinnacle, which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry, has the Under priced at a similar -112. 

That number is already significantly shorter than the price we're paying at FanDuel. However, this bet becomes even more appealing when we factor in that Pinnacle's odds on the Under went as short as -118 after opening at -111.

That tells us there's been some decent action on the Under. The Over was bought back only when it reached a price longer than the standard -120 found at most of our best sportsbooks.

Our decision to play the Under is made even easier by the fact that Allen's average passing touchdowns projection is 1.66 across eight projection models. That's a far cry from the two he needs, and we're getting juicy plus-money odds to back those projections.

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FanDuel boost for Bills vs. Dolphins

FanDuel is boosting the odds for Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Allen to each have 200+ passing yards and for James Cook to have 40+ rushing yards during Sunday Night Night Football from -120 to +150!

Offer available within all legal U.S. sports betting regions where FanDuel operates.

Josh Allen to score a touchdown (-115 via ESPN BET) ⭐⭐⭐

Regardless of which side of this bet you want to play, the destination remains the same.

ESPN BET provides bettors with the ever-valuable "No" option in the touchdown-scorers market. This serves two purposes for savvy bettors: you can either target a player whose odds are much shorter elsewhere and now have to be priced appropriately due to the alternative being available, or you can simply fade a player altogether. We'll go with Option A.

Now, the edge isn't as significant as I'd like, mostly because Caesars is offering similarly appealing -118 odds on Allen to score a touchdown. Trust me, I was as surprised to write that sentence as you are reading it.

However, many of our other sites that offer the best sportsbook promos are far shorter, with DraftKings and BetMGM providing a -135 price. For those wondering just how bad it can get without a "No" side, check out bet365's -175 odds on this prop (and no, that's not a typo).

Much like Caesars, FanDuel offers competitive -120 odds on this prop, which is also what Pinnacle has it priced at.

Though I do have some reservations as to whether Allen will be asked to smash the ball in down in the red zone with the postseason looming, I'll trust the numbers on this one. Allen's average touchdown projection is .64, while ESPN BET's -115 odds come with just a 53% implied probability of the quarterback scoring. 

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Tua Tagovailoa Over 259.5 passing yards (-113 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐

Tagovailoa's passing yards prop is a bit all over the place at our best live betting sites. BetMGM is offering Over 267.5 yards at -120, while Caesars (-118), DraftKings (-115), and bet365 (-110) offer the same total at various prices.

Backing the Over at any of those books would result in a -EV bet. FanDuel offers a slightly lower total at 262.5, with the Over trading at -110. Playing this at FanDuel wouldn't be the worst option, but it's BetRivers that provides us with the best value on Tagovailoa's passing yardage prop.

BetRivers is offering a much lower total than the rest of our best sportsbooks at 259.5, with the Over juiced only to -113. 

Pinnacle opened Tagovailoa's passing yards total at 264.5, and it's now at 267.5 (-118) after experiencing plenty of movement throughout the week. Pinnacle did offer a total of 259.5 at one point, though it lasted exactly three minutes before jumping to 261.5. That helps tell us that this total is too low.

Tagovailoa has an average projected passing yards total of 271.86 across eight projection models. When running that projection against this offering at BetRivers, we're getting roughly 6% +EV on our bet, making it a worthy selection for those looking to have action on both quarterbacks Sunday night.

Josh Allen vs. Tua Tagovailoa player props made Friday at 1 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Andrew Brennan
Andrew Brennan is a publishing editor for Sportsbook Review. He also heads the website’s MLB coverage, from the various futures markets to daily picks. Andrew believes a math-based approach is the best way to enjoy long-term success in sports betting, and he’s spent the better part of the last year fine-tuning his own process for MLB, NBA, and NFL picks. Andrew uses eight different sportsbooks to find the best odds available and various projection models to gather as much information as he can. His most used sportsbooks are bet365, FanDuel, and theScore Bet. When it comes to daily projection models, he regularly references NumberFire across all sports, as it’s one of the best free tools available. In terms of which daily markets Andrew attacks, he almost exclusively bets on pitcher strikeouts for baseball. When the winter rolls around, you’ll see him providing more variety when it comes to the NBA (points, assists, rebounds) and NFL (almost any offensive-based player prop). He used these tools to go +150 units in 2023. Andrew is also a passionate fantasy sports player. He’s played fantasy football, fantasy Premier League, and fantasy baseball for the last decade. He graduated from Durham College with his diploma in journalism after earning his degree in law from Carleton University. He’s worked in sports media since early 2017, first contributing at FanSided before moving to theScore. He joined SBR in 2022.